@jon_m_rob Congressional version coming soon with more use of them!
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Daniel Markovits
2.5K posts
Daniel Markovits
@markovitis
Phd student in political science @Columbia studying voter responses to democratic threat in America.
New York, USA Katılım Şubat 2017
829 Takip Edilen619 Takipçiler
Gotta start using these on here
Daniel Markovits@markovitis
2/ When Democrats vote in a Republican primary (or vice-versa) they face two strategies: Raid: vote for the most extreme candidate to weaken the opposing party’s prospects. Hedge: vote for the moderate (in this case, pro-democratic) candidate to reduce the risk of an opposing party nominee. Which do voters prefer?
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1/ Will voters participate in the primary of a party they oppose to prevent the nomination of a candidate they fear?
In a new paper in AJPS with @HayleyCohen, we study crossover voting using surveys and a large field experiment (N=83,902) in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aj…
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6/ The broader takeaway: By crossing over and backing moderate candidates, voters can lower the stakes of general elections.
Voters worried about the future of democracy and confronted with an uncompetitive primary in their own party can further pro-democratic candidates by combining a strategic turnout decision and a sincere vote choice.
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5/ The encouragement worked.
Turnout in the competitive Republican primary increased by about 1.6 percentage points, while turnout in the Democratic primary fell by about 0.5 points.
Effects were somewhat smaller among voters living with other Democrats, but effects don’t change by how likely a voter is to support the Democrat in the general election.
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@jon_m_rob One thing that might be dangerous about RCV is if it removes the incentive for candidates to drop out and make a full throated endorsement, but then their votes split like this...
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Given discussion of RCV in '28 Dem Pres primary, worth revisiting AK's experience -- Biden won ~56% of the top-2 cand vote in "round 1", ultimately got 55% in "final". Just like in NYC mayor & other races, e.g., Warren, etc, voters split their votes evenly, not ideologically
Jonathan Robinson@jon_m_rob
This kind of got lost in the shuffle but AK ran an RCV Dem. presidential primary all mail party run primary in early April. Results below. static1.squarespace.com/static/54bee0c…
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@JBSDC Doesn't the side that under-performs on 11/4 end it?
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This is likely rolling until the week after the November 4th election at least, and I think it’s more likely it goes into 2026 than ends before 11/4.
Jake Sherman@JakeSherman
🚨NEWS in @PunchbowlNews AM: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION is girding for a long shutdown. They are in the process of finding money to pay for law enforcement officers. They're using tariff revenue to pay for WIC for the foreseeable future. “OMB is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence,” an OMB official told us. “Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the RIFs, and wait.” punchbowl.news/archive/101425… The bet Dems have made is that Trump will push Johnson/Thune to sit down and make a deal. At this point, that's not happening.
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That being said, we find that a defense of Trump's prosecution weakly hurt him by damaging his standing among Republicans who were hesistant towards him pre-treatment.
So to the extent the prosecution of Trump helped him to consolidate support in the Republican Primary it was probably through his domination of the media environment, not through a "rally around the prosecuted" candidate effect.
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Great thread from @AOD_PhD summarizing our new paper in @PNASNexus.
I think a big takeaway is that partisans have strong priors about party leaders and topics that have been litigiated in partisan media, but very weak priors about many other public servants.
So someone like Jack Smith, who begins as a relatively anonymous prosecutor, rapidly develops a polarizing public reputation, while not making much of an impact on electoral politics.
Andrew O’Donohue@AOD_PhD
New article! @markovitis and I examine how prosecutions of political leaders affect public opinion by studying the valuable case of Trump's criminal prosecution. Key finding: rhetoric from Trump's prosecutor marginally ⬇️ intention of voting for Trump but massively ⬆️ backlash 1/
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Daniel Markovits retweetledi
New article! @markovitis and I examine how prosecutions of political leaders affect public opinion by studying the valuable case of Trump's criminal prosecution. Key finding: rhetoric from Trump's prosecutor marginally ⬇️ intention of voting for Trump but massively ⬆️ backlash 1/
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@milansingh03 @SplitTicket_ Yeah, and I think this holds even when you try to unbundle from general policy extremism, but unlike most vague anti-democratic proposals gerrymandering brings such clear rewards that I think you need a much larger penalty to matter.
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This is a case where the public opinion literature on democratic norms is very practically useful: voters don't like efforts to rig elections in isolation, even as they won't massively punish candidates who back such proposals in general elections (where many other policies are at stake).
Still, "they did it first" is almost certainly the best way for both parties to raise public support for these proposals.
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
A new POLITICO poll shows California voters prefer keeping an independent line-drawing panel to determine the state’s House seats “by nearly a two-to-one margin” (64%) while only “36% of respondents back returning congressional redistricting authority to state lawmakers
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Well something has changed! Though it is not clear it is norms eroding so much as members being more willing to take on slightly more risk/disruption to help their party.
Patrick Ruffini@PatrickRuffini
On redistricting, it's cute that people think that politicians would adhere to principle. On this, there is no principle. There is only power.
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Well, thermostatic public opinion is coming to science and higher education.
Sasha Gusev@SashaGusevPosts
"Science" is now the third highest supported institution in the US, after small business and the military. Higher ed is fifth.
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@MattZeitlin Also the general involves candidates and voters from actually different parties, it's a lot easier to strategically vote for one ideologically similar primary candidate over another than for Republicans to back Cuomo.
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Funny that the primary basically turned into a two man race despite RCV and now in the general we could have a genuine multicandidate field and it’s a plurality winner
Andrew Kaczynski@KFILE
New poll shows Zohran Mamdani with 35% in the lead in the mayor’s race. Cuomo in second with 25%, Silwa in third with 14% — and Adams with a just 11%. Adams’ — Fav/Unfav: 28% / 62% (Net: -34) slingshotstrat.com/media/slingsho…
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Unlike the primary, this seems like an election that would actually benefit from RCV.
Jeff Coltin@JCColtin
Mamdani gets support from 35 percent of registered voters, followed by Cuomo with 25, Sliwa with 14, Adams at 11 and attorney Jim Walden at 1 percent. Thirteen percent of respondents said they weren’t sure, while 1 percent picked another candidate.
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@joshmccrain I think of Alaska as suggesting a case for RCV that basically comes down to: "its harder for several reasons for a majority party to always win elections" that we can't really test at the local level and that differs from more idealistic explanations.
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there are a lot of policy levers to pull and finite resources to advocate towards fixing "problems" in political institutions. my controversial take is we should not strongly advocate for one lever/solution if we don't have the evidence for it
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Was on a panel here a few years ago w/ a bunch of RCV advocates, and it was a huge shock to everyone when I said a) empirical evidence isn't there; and b) it's not even clear why the mechanisms they propose would exist. Entire think tanks exist to advocate for RCV w/ no evidence!
Lee Drutman ⚙️🏛@leedrutman
Yet another null finding for RCV's effect. Time to accept that RCV is too marginal to make any meaningful difference on political outcomes or representation, and move on?
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