Matt Bergman

#Business #consultant/#finance #attorney/#investment #analyst/#corporate #strategist. Opinions are mine. Voracious consumer of knowledge/data, creative quant- applied to help my firm & clients do well & earn more. Inquires welcome: ridgestrategic.com linkedin.com/in/mattdbergma…

@sbabmarks is the absolute GOAT in this space - and an even nicer person. #SMB #SMB #BIZ

Working capital is the most underestimated force in business. Let’s imagine you have a business running at $ 500k per month of sales. All of a sudden you experience a breakout moment: - 15% sales growth month-over-month for a year - With a net income margin of 10% Extending that growth will lead to a total of $14.5M sales in the first year and $1.45M net income. Now make some working capital assumptions: - Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) of 30 Days - Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) of 30 Days - Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) of 30 Days i.e. a Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) of 30 Days: (DSO + DIO - DPO). Despite the $1.45M profitability, the business won’t generate any cashflow in year one. In fact it will outflow ~$375k of cash over those twelve months as it lays down the additional working capital needed to react to the growth. Now, lets run some scenarios (see the image) assuming that same business starts with $ 1M of cash on the balance sheet: If we assume the same dynamics, but instead imagine the business had poor inventory control, and ran on a CCC of 90 days. That same business would now have a negative cash balance of ~$3m by Christmas… or more accurately would be dead by June. And at that CCC, even if the business 2.5x that net margin to 25%, the business would still run out of cash in 9 months (that is despite now generating ~$3.6M of profit). Now imagine the opposite were true, the business, ran on a negative CCC of 60 days, funded by a willing supplier; with very tight inventory and receivables levels. In this scenario, even if the net margin were only 5%, the cash balance would explode to over $ 5M (positive) by the end of the year. In fact, at a negative 60 days CCC, even if the business operated at a 25% net loss margin, it would still survive the year (just about). This illustrates how much more sensitive working capital (and cashflow) is to changes in the business, than any profit metric you can choose. I call this effect: The Cashflow Megaphone. And as a long time turnaround CFO, understanding this inside out was the most valuable technical weapon in my armory in bending broken cashflows back into the black. And in times of volatile trading and macro conditions, these dynamics are more important than ever (especially when supply chains are gummed up like they are right now)

Not profound to say, but they didn’t win the division last year bc they played poorly within the East (esp. Toronto). And the sweep in Tampa was a tough start. Obv nine games, including three in the division beforehand - but ~5-2 across that 5/18-5/24 home stand would be nice. #Yankees

interesting stretch of games coming up

@TalkinJake @LukeBecker_YN26 Caballero’s clearly earned the right to keep playing. I’d happily keep Volpe down. That said, if club *must* bring him back, while he hasn’t done it much, Jose should at least play LF v LHP (career wRC+ v LHP) in addition to reps elsewhere. #Yankees

I think the Yanks are going to send Volpe down I’m a little shocked. So many layers to this between Caballero (now), Lombard (future) and how they managed the past (The Oswalds)

@BRappy55 With this group this kind of situation always feels a little trap-like (e.g. Miami and Indiana of recent vintage). But think they’ll ultimately be just fine #knicks

Philly scares me. Just the truth. #Knicks

Been a long time, and assume I’m just posting into a rabbit hole - but always a privilege to spend a wonderful night with my beautiful wife @ElleTyse (and get a good #Yankees win and *maybe* a more favorable #Knicks matchup). Hope folks are well! #hey #love

#NFL another fun playoff game substantially (obv ton of things either team could have done better) determined by the whims of what is and what isn’t pass interference….no big rooting interest here, but if you’re gonna let em play one end, call it the same

@robtregaskes @ALANDexter2020 @BenSasse Wonderful, wonderful, wonderful that you’re clear!

Sorry Ben. Granted it was advanced Melanoma rather than pancreatic (which I know less about), but this time 4 years ago I had about 3 weeks to live. Now I scan clear. The odds may not be in your favour, but targeted chemo, SRS and immunotherapy in the hands of talented medics can perform miracles. Drive forward and fight for every day. Many are praying for you. 🙏

Friends- This is a tough note to write, but since a bunch of you have started to suspect something, I’ll cut to the chase: Last week I was diagnosed with metastasized, stage-four pancreatic cancer, and am gonna die. Advanced pancreatic is nasty stuff; it’s a death sentence. But I already had a death sentence before last week too — we all do. I’m blessed with amazing siblings and half-a-dozen buddies that are genuinely brothers. As one of them put it, “Sure, you’re on the clock, but we’re all on the clock.” Death is a wicked thief, and the bastard pursues us all. Still, I’ve got less time than I’d prefer. This is hard for someone wired to work and build, but harder still as a husband and a dad. I can’t begin to describe how great my people are. During the past year, as we’d temporarily stepped back from public life and built new family rhythms, Melissa and I have grown even closer — and that on top of three decades of the best friend a man could ever have. Seven months ago, Corrie was commissioned into the Air Force and she’s off at instrument and multi-engine rounds of flight school. Last week, Alex kicked butt graduating from college a semester early even while teaching gen chem, organic, and physics (she’s a freak). This summer, 14-year-old Breck started learning to drive. (Okay, we’ve been driving off-book for six years — but now we’ve got paper to make it street-legal.) I couldn’t be more grateful to constantly get to bear-hug this motley crew of sinners and saints. There’s not a good time to tell your peeps you’re now marching to the beat of a faster drummer — but the season of advent isn’t the worst. As a Christian, the weeks running up to Christmas are a time to orient our hearts toward the hope of what’s to come. Not an abstract hope in fanciful human goodness; not hope in vague hallmark-sappy spirituality; not a bootstrapped hope in our own strength (what foolishness is the evaporating-muscle I once prided myself in). Nope — often we lazily say “hope” when what we mean is “optimism.” To be clear, optimism is great, and it’s absolutely necessary, but it’s insufficient. It’s not the kinda thing that holds up when you tell your daughters you’re not going to walk them down the aisle. Nor telling your mom and pops they’re gonna bury their son. A well-lived life demands more reality — stiffer stuff. That’s why, during advent, even while still walking in darkness, we shout our hope — often properly with a gravelly voice soldiering through tears. Such is the calling of the pilgrim. Those who know ourselves to need a Physician should dang well look forward to enduring beauty and eventual fulfillment. That is, we hope in a real Deliverer — a rescuing God, born at a real time, in a real place. But the eternal city — with foundations and without cancer — is not yet. Remembering Isaiah’s prophecies of what’s to come doesn’t dull the pain of current sufferings. But it does put it in eternity’s perspective: “When we've been there 10,000 years…We've no less days to sing God's praise.” I’ll have more to say. I’m not going down without a fight. One sub-part of God’s grace is found in the jawdropping advances science has made the past few years in immunotherapy and more. Death and dying aren’t the same — the process of dying is still something to be lived. We’re zealously embracing a lot of gallows humor in our house, and I’ve pledged to do my part to run through the irreverent tape. But for now, as our family faces the reality of treatments, but more importantly as we celebrate Christmas, we wish you peace: “The people walking in darkness have seen a great light; on those living in the land of deep darkness a light has dawned….For to us a son is given” (Isaiah 9). With great gratitude, and with gravelly-but-hopeful voices, Ben — and the Sasses

@Restructuring__ Thank you and likewise!

@mdbergman36 Happy holidays!

Ha, the seminal Moyer work is a perfect holiday gift! Probably still the best #distressed #book out there

@Restructuring__ (Ha, try searching “Pari Passu” on Amazon sometime - perhaps not shockingly, not what a #restructuring geek would necessarily expect). You do terrific, first-in-class work - thanks - and very happy holiday!

@mdbergman36 It is up there with Pari Passu restructuringnewsletter.com

@YankeesFanEarl Folks, can’t two things be true? Brian Cashman’s been a great steward of this club and Lord knows one could far worse. He’s also highly imperfect and it’s been time for a new voice for a little while now. #Yankees

@FourSavages @ncostanzo24 So, my usual optimism is pretty much gone with Volpe - though i’m willing to consider that the shoulder messed with him this year, his ceiling is clearly significantly lower than what many of us had hoped for. That said, what do you expect Cash to say? #Yankees

Brian Cashman and the Yankees still believe Anthony Volpe is “very good.” Not encouraging for fans to hear @ncostanzo24

@PEMdocResists If only were it surprising (very unique! 😃)

absolutely hilarious how many people simply don't get this...

@android_stern @Polymarket Ha!

@Polymarket It gets worse. He’s saying they have to start with non-binary numbers.

BREAKING: Zohran Mamdani to require all New York elementary school students to learn Arabic numerals.

@PEMdocResists @chefsevenn Great to see you, my friend, hope all is well with you!

@mdbergman36 @chefsevenn Whoa! Hey stranger! Where have you been? Great to see you! 😃😃😃

Has anyone tried using Bread as a Hot Dog Bun? Was it OK? Or gross?

@PEMdocResists @chefsevenn 😀👊

@chefsevenn No. No one in history has ever tried it, including the person that took that photo.

@AshStormRuleman Nicely written, all key, but number 1 is profoundly important

Starting an LLC is exciting. But it’s also where I see a lot of confusion. I’ve seen new LLC owners miss these 4 basics early on: 1. Separation matters The LLC only protects you if you treat it as its own entity. 2. Keep good records Organized contracts, bank statements, and documents show legitimacy. 3. Get an EIN It’s your business’s federal ID number. 4. Stay consistent Make sure your LLC, licenses, and insurance all match. From my experience, laying this groundwork early helps your business run cleaner and with fewer surprises.

Private credit returning 12% to institutions: “Too complex for retail” Same strategies at 7% with compressed spreads: “Retail deserves access to these opportunities!” Democratization always arrives after the alpha leaves