Moelis_Research

Maharashtra Govt needs to provide power to large data centre companies at quick pace to get more projects rolling in the state. Hyper scaler data centre will grow if power is ensured at fast pace. #removebottlenecks @Dev_Fadnavis @CMDMSEDCL @msedcl

Google Picks Turlawada in Vizag for 308.65-acre Data Centre deccanchronicle.com/southern-state… Vizag winning the race from other states by ensuring 1 GW of power. Congratulations @ncbn @ravi_gottipati @AndhraPradeshCM

@flak_henry @_10delta_ This isn’t US energy dominance - it’s a fragmented global system where the US has gained pricing power, not control.

A lot of words to say that the US hopes to secure the global supply of oil at a time when the rest of the world (led by China) is moving to renewables. The US will spend trillions rebuilding oil infrastructure and defending it with a stretched army against a world full enemies. Every great empire has fallen the same way. Arrogance, religious fanaticism, debt & war. 6D

3 weeks ago I argued the US goal in Iran is to seize the global oil spigot. Venezuela in January -> Iran in February. Neutralize every supply channel outside the dollar system within 90 days. Achieve a compliant successor government and complete energy dominance. The oil thesis was the obvious layer. However, when you zoom out & view the last four years as a single sequence rather than isolated geopolitical events, the architecture of the grander US plan becomes visible. 1st was Europe, which laid the groundwork. The Ukraine conflict provided the justification for sanctions that collapsed Russian pipeline gas from 150 billion cubic meters to 40. Then Nordstream was destroyed, which rewired the entire European energy system permanently. The US went from supplying 28% of Europe's LNG in 2021 to 58% by 2025, exporting a record 111 million MTs, the 1st country in history to break 100 MT. Europe was transformed from a customer with options into a captive market now purchasing its survival in USD. 2nd was Syria. The fall of Assad severed the critical node connecting China's Belt & Road Initiative to the Mediterranean. The trilateral railway linking Iran, Iraq & Syria, designed to bypass Western maritime chokepoints, was completely destroyed. This isolated Iran geographically & cleared the path for what came next. 3rd was Venezuela. In January the US effectively took control of the world's largest heavy crude reserves. The US Gulf Coast has the most advanced refining complex on earth, specifically built for heavy sour crude. Phillips 66, Valero & the rest are now positioned to process hundreds of thousands of barrels of Venezuelan crude daily. The US captured a massive strategic reserve & solidified its position as the dominant exporter of refined petroleum products, an industry worth $110 billion in 2025 alone. Venezuela & Iran were the two major oil supply channels that existed outside the dollar system. Both produce heavy crude sold primarily to China & evaded US financial supervision. Both now being neutralized within 90 days, which leads us to.. 4th is Iran & the Middle East energy shock. Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir. Iran retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan, the single largest LNG facility on earth, responsible for a fifth of global supply. QatarEnergy's own assessment is that 17% of export capacity is gone and recovery will take up to 5 years. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. European gas prices spiked 70%. Asian spot prices doubled. The only remaining scaled supplier? The United States. If Iran falls & a successor government is installed that the US controls or influences (the Delcy model described weeks ago) then roughly 40 to 45 million barrels per day of global production out of 103 million is effectively under US control. OPEC becomes irrelevant because the US coalition is now the marginal producer. Now add the gas dimension & it goes beyond oil. This war is solidifying the petrodollar system as it evolves into a hybrid petro/LNG-dollar. The old system was built on Saudi crude priced in USD. The new system is built on American crude plus American gas from the Gulf Coast, with no alternative supplier of comparable scale. The dependency is deeper because LNG infrastructure requires long term contracts & regasification terminals that lock buyers into supply relationships for decades. Europe & the Pacific allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc.) cannot pivot away as there is nowhere left to pivot to. They're now locked into the US energy system. The market confirms this. DXY went from 96 to 101. Gold down ~20% from its January all time high. Bitcoin down 20% on the year. Brent above $100. European & Asian institutions are liquidating precious metals and crypto to buy dollars because they need dollars to buy the only remaining scaled energy supply. The world is selling its gold to buy American energy in American currency. The dollar is now being weaponized through energy dependency. The structural repricing is happening regardless of how the conflict resolves. But the US grand strategy goes deeper.. Artificial intelligence is a physical industry. It runs on power and chips. Data centers require massive uninterrupted baseload electricity, primarily provided by natural gas. Semiconductor fabrication requires helium & rare earths. By choking the Strait of Hormuz & crippling Middle Eastern LNG & helium production, the US is systematically degrading China's ability to power its data centers & fabricate semiconductors at scale. The US is energy self sufficient, especially with newly captured Venezuelan reserves & expanding Gulf Coast capacity running on domestic gas. On the other hand, China is import dependent & every joule it imports effectively now transits chokepoints the US Navy controls.. Iran was the Belt & Road's overland energy bypass, the corridor that allowed China to mitigate the Malacca Trap. With Iran neutralized that corridor is severed. China faces a world where its compute infrastructure competes for scraps on a depleted global LNG market, while American data centers run at full capacity on domestic energy. Russia is next in the sequence. A post-war Iran reopening under US influence competes directly with Russia for the same refineries in China & India at lower cost. Iran's production costs are lower. Russia loses its last structural advantage in heavy crude & its economic lifeline. Additionally, under the Iran war cover, Ukraine has been opportunistically destroying Russian energy infrastructure & all signs point towards Russia being at the end of the line. The message from Washington becomes very simple: we dismantled two regimes in three months, your economy is about to get crushed, sign the Ukraine deal. Then Trump sits down with Xi holding every card. Complete energy dominance. The hybrid petro/LNG-dollar fortified, Iran cleared, Russia cornered, & China facing the Malacca Trap fully closed with no remaining energy bypass. Israel & the GCC are absorbing the kinetic cost of a conflict whose primary beneficiary, counter to the mainstream narrative, is actually America (First). Qatar offline for 5 years reprices the entire global gas market in favor of US exporters for the remainder of the decade. The Gulf states face years of rebuilding. Europe faces its 2nd energy crisis in four years. Sure, the average American might face temporary moderate inflation & higher gas prices. But if you are the architect of the US empire & you view the rise of China & Chinese ASI as an existential winner takes all scenario, the collateral damage is acceptable cost. Whoever controls the energy corridors controls the monetary system. Whoever controls the monetary system & the energy supply simultaneously controls the compute infrastructure that determines which civilization builds ASI first. The US is seizing all 3.

@amitmalviya Result: more entities on paper, but not necessarily proportionate economic growth. Important to read the signal behind the numbers.

@amitmalviya In West Bengal, a surge in “companies” doesn’t always mean a surge in real business activity. A big driver is the legacy of the Urban Land Ceiling Act - making direct land acquisition difficult. So people often route land holding through corporate structures.

TMC has been claiming 2,54,000 companies are registered in West Bengal as proof of their "industrial revival." Today, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs told Rajya Sabha the real picture. ✅ Active companies in WB: 1,54,575 ❌ *Struck off (dead): 78,615* ⚰️ Under liquidation: 1,016 Out of 2,54,000+ ever-registered, only 61% survive. TMC counts graves as growth. And of those 1,54,575 "active" companies, only 1,782 reported profit above ₹10 crore in FY25. This is the real industrial Bengal that Mamata Banerjee built.

@outspokenblunt @ShekharGupta 😂

@ShekharGupta Isko kya ho gaya! Itna positive?? Koi Nasha Kiya hai Sekhu ne!!

As you look at the horrific pictures of the bombed Iranian school… Pause for a minute and think.. Indian Air Force and the Army were given 2 and 7 terror targets respectively to hit on the night of May 6-7 in Op Sindoor… Each was fully destroyed… On the morning of May 8, the IAF carried out extensive air defence suppression using long-range kamikaze drones… On May 9-10 the IAF targeted 14 PAF bases or radar stations/missile batteries… Destructive evidence of almost all these strikes cane up in satellite pictures… All strikes were carried out by precision munitions from long distances… Not one missed aim or strayed to harm civilians… no school, no village or city, no hospitals. None… This despite not having a fraction of the US military weapons, sensors or surveillance ability… And in a furiously contested air space against near-peer PAF and its Chinese air defences… Let’s give credit where due. To our armed forces in this case…

@rumilyrics People aren’t mocking you for changing your view; they’re mocking you because you once mocked them for the same view.

Nothing is wrong with changing your opinion on something after learning new information. It's a sign of intelligence.

@hvgoenka Good to know where your heart is!! RSS single mind agenda - Nation First! नमस्ते सदा वत्सले मात्रभूमि!!

Takeaways from my breakfast meeting today with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat ji: • The core aim of the RSS is to bring society together and help India emerge as a vishwaguru. • Economic policy is a tool to make India stronger, not an end in itself. • The focus should move from mass production to production by the masses. • Technology must be humane, adaptable, and shaped by a new, people-centric model. • People may work out of fear, compulsion, greed, or fame- but the most enduring motivation is inner purpose. • Social change begins at home- only then can it scale to society. • At the heart of the organisation’s thinking lies मनुष्य निर्माण- the creation of better human beings.

@sandipsabharwal GDP is earned in ₹, not $. USD GDP is a conversion, not growth. Rupee moves reflect macro management, not economic failure. Real growth > FX optics.

Rupee Depreciation now over the last one year 7% India's GDP growth is trending (nominal)~8% So in USD terms we are at the same level as one year ago So much so for the $ 5 Trillion target that was supposed to be hit last year. Now it's more likely after 3-4 years.

@ipo_agarwal Both are right - for their own convenience. One finds democracy inconvenient. The other finds Sunday inconvenient. Neither is debating what serves the nation best - only what suits them. That’s privilege thinking. #DemocracyFirst #SelectiveConvenience #MarketVsNation

It's Market holiday and all over Social media seeing 2 discussions Nithin Kamat says why should Market be closed on local election day in Mumbai! On the Other hand Sameer Arora saying why should Market be open on Sunday on budget day What's right as per you!!

@Iamsamirarora If democracy doesn’t matter, what exactly does? But pausing for crores of 3.5 crore voters hurts your ego? That’s not global thinking - that’s selective convenience.

So if it does not matter to anyone who does it matter to. I hope u will say the same thing when the market is open on Sunday Feb 1st. Why do we want market to be open just because there is budget that day? If our exchange has international linkages is it not unfair to foreign investors to have market open on Sunday. And what about January 1st each year.

@jasuja @Nithin0dha India isn’t a copy-paste economy - it’s the most diverse democracy on Earth. Managing elections, cultures, civic duties across such scale is a global rarity,not a flaw. Governance of India requires understanding, not impatience. #IndiaIsUnique #DemocracyFirst #RespectTheNation

Legacy rules persist, second-order effects are ignored, and inertia wins. Random state and local holidays shutting markets only add to investor confusion and friction. If we want to be taken seriously, we need a predictable, standardised national holiday calendar — with one meaningful block (Diwali) for real rest, and the rest aligned centrally.

Indian stock exchanges are closed today for Mumbai's municipal elections. The fact that our exchanges, which have international linkages, are shut down for a local municipal election shows poor planning and a serious lack of appreciation for second-order effects. As Munger said: "Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome." The holiday exists because no one who matters has any incentive to oppose the market holiday. It also tells you how far we have to go before global investors take us seriously.

@sabarisec @Nithin0dha If you understood the scale of India’s elections, you’d admire how 3.5 crore people vote seamlessly in one day. That’s global - grade democracy. Markets seek relevance, but democracy gives them legitimacy. Failure to respect that reflects shallow understanding, not progress.

With today’s technology, a local civic event in one city should not necessitate a nationwide market shutdown. Capital markets are no longer local utilities; they are critical national financial infrastructure with deep international linkages. If our markets genuinely aspire to global relevance, administrative or regional events must not become single-point failures in the functioning of the financial system.

@ChanderBhatia01 @Nithin0dha Calling 3.5 crore voters a “municipal election” shows shallow understanding of polls and democracy. 3.5 crore citizens voting in one day is not small - it’s massive democratic power. If you can’t respect that, you don’t understand India.

It is truly disappointing to see that Indian equity market is closed because of Municipal elections of Maharashtra. Our markets are not local markets, it has exposure of FPIs, Sovereign Funds, various global investors, Investors from across the country, and so on. The Government should have given half day leave to all the employees to vote and rest of the employees would have taken care of smooth functioning.

@Nithin0dha Crores of Maharashtrians voting is not an inconvenience — it’s democracy at work. 🇮🇳 Markets can pause for a day. Citizenship cannot. Financial efficiency without democratic respect is just shallow thinking. #DemocracyFirst #RespectTheVoter #CivicDuty #MarketsServePeople

@hvgoenka The biggest of all is the judiciary! A bump of 1 to 2% is possible if judicial reforms happen. Other issues will follow suit.

India’s moment is here. 7-8% GDP growth. Strong macros. Fiscal discipline. Stable politics. Right place. Right time. But our challenge isn’t macro- it’s micro: Unliveable cities, slow justice, corruption, low R&D, weak negotiating leverage. Momentum needs reform on the ground.

@theallinpod @chamath @howardlutnick World's biggest buyer has lost his buying power, portraying the world as if they are giving deals to everyone while the truth is they can't afford to buy what they used to.

The All-In Interview is BACK! 🚨 @chamath sits down with Commerce Secretary @howardlutnick to talk the 2026 agenda -- Biggest outstanding trade deals -- Could we see 5% (or 6%!?) GDP growth this year? -- Fraud crackdown ++ much more! (0:00) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells a hilarious Air Force One story (2:24) Chamath intros Secretary Lutnick (7:28) Full scope of the Commerce Department (12:59) How Trump's tariff agenda was planned and executed, how it's going (19:50) US-Japan trade deal, China's chaos-to-prowess strategy (36:54) Why the India deal has not yet happened (43:48) Pharma deals, lowering costs for Americans (53:28) Focus on fraud, immigration, gold cards (1:03:48) GDP: Could we see 5 or 6% growth in 2026? (1:11:49) How the Trump Admin revamped the CHIPS Act, Nvidia deal

@darshitpatel84 Take stock ideas from anyone..but take buy/sell decisions only from your own analysis. Even legends change their mind; your capital can’t afford blind faith!! #sunosabki #karoapni #noblame #noclaim

I met a high-profile, well-known investor in September and asked him about a specific stock he owned. His exact words were: “Hold this stock for 4-5 years. Don’t watch the daily price. Treat it like an FD. Chances of very, very high returns.” By the last week of October, he had sold his entire stake in the company. Moral: Never take blind buy decisions based on who so ever recommending a stock. Always do your own analysis.

@KobeissiLetter Natural resources ≠ strategic assets. Reserves don’t convert to value automatically. They require decades of capex, political stability, skilled labor, infra n consent. It comes with sanctions, sovereign risks, rebels, national history, This is geopolitics, not a balance sheet.

Venezuela Currently Has: 1. 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, 34th largest in the world 2. 300 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, largest in the world 3. 4 billion tons of iron ore reserves, worth nearly $600 billion 4. 8,000+ tons of gold resources, the largest in Latin America 5. 500+ million tons of coal reserves 6. 2% of the world’s total renewable freshwater resources 7. Untapped strategic minerals including nickel, copper, and phosphates Venezuela is now a “strategic” US asset.

@KobeissiLetter Comparing undiscounted, in-ground resources to annual GDP is a category error. Correct comparison would be: Annual oil revenue vs Annual GDP Venezuela at peak (before collapse): ~3.5 mbpd ~$100 bn/year revenue (at $80 oil) Not trillions.

This is absolutely insane: Venezuela currently has 303 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, which Trump says the US now controls. Oil prices are trading at ~$57/barrel, making Venezuela's total reserves worth $17.3 TRILLION. Even if the US sells this oil for HALF of the market rate, that's still $8.7 TRILLION. In other words, in 12 hours, the US has gained control of oil reserves worth more than the entire GDP of ALL countries in the world, aside from the US and China. That's 4 TIMES larger than the GDP of Japan. Most people do not realize how much the world just changed. Oil markets will react to this news for the first time on Sunday at 6 PM ET. The next few days will be critical.