@Geiger_Capital @grok can you confirm share counts for every mag 7 stock from 10 years ago to today?
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Michael Shamshoian
1.1K posts
Michael Shamshoian
@mshamsho
Founder & Sole Proprietor @ #LNKDAustin
Austin, TX Katılım Mart 2009
2.1K Takip Edilen361 Takipçiler
*ALPHABET SEES 2026 CAPEX
$175B TO $185B vs $119.5B exp.
For the past decade MAG7 were free cash flow monsters who poured money into buybacks to support their stock prices…
That era is over.
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The average annual S&P 500 return over the last 20 years is 10-11%
The average annual return on a US home over the last 20 years is around 4%
I’m not a fan of selling the first to fund the second when home prices are at all time highs with weak future demographics
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@pronounced_kyle Monthly Mortgage Payment:
45 years ago: $4,675
40 years ago: $3,164
35 years ago: $2,728
30 years ago: $2,291
25 years ago: $2,197
20 years ago: $2,426
15 years ago: $1,510
10 years ago: $1,626
5 years ago: $1,787
Today: $2,610
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Or inflation adjusted:
45 years ago: $334,739
40 years ago: $354,903
35 years ago: $331,653
30 years ago: $317,887
25 years ago: $331,224
20 years ago: $387,443
15 years ago: $299,828
10 years ago: $355,504
5 years ago: $426,016
Today: $428,000
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Average cost for a 2,000 sq. ft. home in America:
45 years ago: $97,000
40 years ago: $124,000
35 years ago: $144,000
30 years ago: $159,000
25 years ago: $187,000
20 years ago: $249,000
15 years ago: $215,000
10 years ago: $272,000
5 years ago: $368,000
Today: $428,000
Jon Erlichman@JonErlichman
Average cost for 1 gigabyte of storage: 45 years ago: $438,000 40 years ago: $238,000 35 years ago: $48,720 30 years ago: $5,152 25 years ago: $455 20 years ago: $5 15 years ago: $0.55 10 years ago: $0.05 5 years ago: $0.03 Today: $0.01
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@anothercohen Just hire an ambitious 22 year old with a pro AI subscription and that’ll outperform most people with “startup” experience without a pro AI subscription.
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I love Austin but the most noticeable difference in sourcing candidates between here and SF is the lack of people with actual startup experience.
It's all big companies: Amazon, Walmart, Dell, etc.
In San Francisco there are hundreds (if not thousands) of people who have worked at and tried to scale ambitious tech companies from the ground up.
It's cool that VCs are moving here but we still lack the talent density needed to build an entire team locally.
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@BillAckman It’s just a strategy to get something in return for the massive banking deregulation on the way. Trump gets interest rate caps without a reduction in lending and banks get a loosening in basal III capital requirements and CFPB regulations.
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And no, I don’t have any investments directly or indirectly in credit card companies or banks.
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Come on Jo! I thought you were a reality engineer. They will obviously get struck down and then they will pivot everything over to 232. Hence the post about the military budget yesterday.
Summary of the Strategy
1. Year 1 (IEEPA): Use emergency powers to bypass Congress and the 9-month waiting period. Get the money flowing immediately.
2. The Delay Game: Let the courts fight it out for a year.
3. Year 2 (The Pivot): When the Supreme Court finally says “No,” pivot immediately to Section 232 (National Security), using the “Military Budget” as the unassailable justification.
He essentially used a “temporary” emergency power to construct a permanent “national security” tax regime. The tweet isn’t a reaction; it’s the bridge between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
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Supreme Court ruling o. Trump tariffs is scheduled for Friday 10 am ET.
1. Betting markets see the odds that SCOTUS will rule AGAINST tariffs at over 70%.
2. Obviously, if the US has to pay back tariffs, that would be a disaster
3. A ruling against isn’t the final word, lower courts would have to decide what happens next - but they are littered with political enemies who would love to crash the US economy.
I view this as a significant tactical risk for Friday.
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@Tesla_GTownTX @boringcompany @SpecialElonZone @GregAbbott_TX The city of Austin is focused on a light rail boondoggle, @GregAbbott_TX could declare boring company tunnels as “state highways” or @TXlege could designate boring company tunnels as common carriers, similar to oil pipelines.
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@mshamsho @boringcompany @SpecialElonZone @GregAbbott_TX I don’t think it’s Abbott, rather the city of Austin.
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Vegas Loop dropoff at the Airport!
Still in the early phases of the program, providing a small number of rides each day.
The ride includes both a tunnel portion and a long surface portion, with the latter shifting to subsurface when the 2.25 mile Airport Connector twin tunnels open, hopefully in Q1 2026.
Thanks to @LASAirport @LVCVA @ClarkCountyNV @NevadaDBI in reaching this milestone.
Mick Akers@mickakers
Boring Co. Vegas Loop begins Reid airport rides reviewjournal.com/local/traffic/… #vegas #boringcompany #elonmusk
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@SpecialElonZone Would love to build downtown Austin to Airport to downtown Bastrop, with a spur to COTA.
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@LiebermanAustin I disagree, I think it makes sense to DCA pre S&P 500 inclusion. Here’s the IRR on DCA’ing S&P 500 inclusion for the largest prior IPO’s. DCA to market weight. Quickest inclusion was around 1.5 years.
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WARNING: ⛔️
Don’t chase any of the hot 2026 IPOs
SpaceX
OpenAI
Anthropic
Databricks
Anduril
Will all likely be extremely overvalued when they IPO especially considering share dilution over the first 2 years of being public
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@aelluswamy @typesfast He’s not kidding that is wild, also right above a bunch of sleeping Waymo’s.
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@aelluswamy At this exit of the 101 North > Octavia Street Off Ramp there is no merge lane, two lanes of 50+ mph come together instantly with zero advanced notice to either side. Absolutely horrendous freeway design. Humans mess this up all the time, you simply can’t be in those lanes as they merge. However, Tesla FSD doesn’t understand this yet, and will certainly kill someone here soon if you don’t fix it.
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@JNAranda @eightsleep Hey Joe - I emailed you on Monday, but still haven’t heard anything back here.
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@mshamsho @eightsleep Definitely not a reason why a device would be deactivated. Ping me at joe@eightsleep.com
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@Jason_A_Scharf Robotaxi + boring tunnels is obviously the future and project connect is just another grift.
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Really good article on all the issues with Project Connect.
I also ask as Autonomy is exploding in Austin is fixed rail really the answer?
City Journal@CityJournal
Proponents hail Project Connect as an ambitious plan to modernize Austin’s public transit system. But the initiative has delivered on few of its promises, and scrutiny has intensified over its funding mechanism: a permanent tax increase. Read more from @cjblain10:
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@ScottAdamsSays It’s the same arbitrage as Soros with district judges. You find 10 republic congressmen, fully fund their campaigns on the premise they will never vote to raise the budget deficit. They are American party members who caucus with republicans. Do the same for moderate dems.
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If you are an "analogy thinker," you compare Musk's new America Party to Ross Perot's third-party run and conclude it is bad for Republicans.
But that would only be the case if Musk someday backs an American Party candidate for president, and I don't see that in his plan.
If Musk only backs individual Senators and Representatives for his new party, as he has hinted, all he does is give Republicans a new way to get past politics to solutions the country wants and needs, such as deficit reduction.
The Beta version might be buggy, so expect bumps.
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@niccruzpatane Would be so epic if they could do this as a retrofit!
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Robotaxi has convinced me that Steering Wheels are no longer needed.
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@aliso_ranch @SawyerMerritt I got one! Not an influencer, but my zip code is 78704. Wait times were around 4 minutes today.
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@SawyerMerritt Yup, my Stepson, who lives in Austin, a Tesla owner and shareholder just got the evite, and ten minutes later was heading out on his first ride!
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NEWS: Tesla is starting to send out more Robotaxi service invites in Austin. Ethan is not an "influencer." He has 52 followers and registered interest on Tesla's new Robotaxi service signup page.
Ethan McKanna@ethanmckanna
I just got a @robotaxi invite! Super excited to go try the service out!
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@wholemars Yeah it’s awful, basically you have a 1/4 chance of getting a waymo if you call an Uberx, and if you don’t get a waymo you most likely get a Toyota Corolla 🤮
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@chamath Please create a true S&P 500 that includes the top 500 companies by market cap regardless of whether or not they are public or private and have four quarters GAAP profitability
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Should All In launch an All In Fund of Funds that allows retail investors to leverage our collective access to startups, venture funds, hedge funds and PE funds?
If the size was big enough, we could negotiate some great access AND fee discounts.
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@Jason_A_Scharf @WSJ @SignalFire 16% 1-year growth in tech professionals on LinkedIn. Austin is still booming!
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The entire @WSJ “Austin is over” story rests on this @SignalFire chart🤦♂️
1) Startup employment fell almost everywhere.
2) Austin's drop matches Boston's; so is Boston over too?
3) Only startups funded by the "top 100" VCs. How is the list defined? Likely a coastal bias.
Jason Scharf@Jason_A_Scharf
Here we go again with the Austin is over narrative. We saw the same story in 2023 from Business Insider & 2024 from Texas Monthly. I guess it’s now WSJ’s turn. This after Austin’s Q1 VC funding was 4th in the country, ahead of LA, & is headed for a record year. I respect @SignalFire’s analyses, but I can’t dive into the numbers because the report isn’t widely available. So I can’t put it in context, I only see the cherry-picked data points. Notice the people quoted are always the same story. Random person (not a big name) that no one in Austin has met. Moved here, expected magic, and didn’t progress. Anyone who says the city is dead and only speaks in generalities should not be taken seriously. Notice they never quote or note the big names who moved here or come out of stealth that they are here. Is Austin perfect? No. Is Austin on the same level of Silicon Valley, NYC, Boston or LA? Not yet Is Austin over as startup hub? @ninjaone, @Saronic, @Apptronik, @ICON3DTech, @basepowerco, @function, @datadotworld, @ojolabs, @drinkpoppi, @SieteFoods might have a few things to say
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@SawyerMerritt @farzyness @DavidCarbutt_ please help us!!!!! The Hinglish code-switching is extremely distracting.
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Tesla's VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy on what it's like to work with Elon Musk: "I meet with him every week. He is really smart in the sense that he can predict the future very early; He works really hard. Easily 80-90 hours per week. I feel fortunate to work for him. He is not afraid of taking risks. He is very funny. You can see it in person."
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
Here is a new 50 minute interview with Tesla's VP of AI Software, @aelluswamy. This episode dives into: • The future of AI in education, mobility, and robotics • The integration of AI + EV in Tesla cars • Exclusive insights into Tesla’s humanoid robot program • Behind-the-scenes stories of working with Elon Musk—his mindset, decisions, and brilliance • A vision of what’s next for AI-driven robotics and autonomous technology Full interview: youtube.com/watch?v=jWC_-f…
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Tesla is rumored to start production of a new, longer Model Y, featuring an extended wheelbase and three rows of seats, in May at GigaShanghai.
My model has 10 inch longer wheelbase as an example.
大趙@zhongwen2005
NEWS: Tesla model Y extended wheelbase three-row version will be produced in May in shanghai factory 😳😳
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