@MilkRoad Ahh the old classic, if the data doesn’t tell you what you want to hear then the data must be wrong
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Emma undone
374 posts
Emma undone
@nsharp2026
moon girl with soft playlists 🌕🎧 100% follow back
Katılım Eylül 2016
86 Takip Edilen59 Takipçiler
Tom Lee: The University of Michigan sentiment survey might be basically useless now.
The survey flipped to online-only and now gets roughly 66% Democratic vs 33% Republican responses - way off from actual U.S. party distribution.
"The only reason that overall number kept dropping is that it's reflecting a greater percentage of Democratic respondents."
FT @Fundstrat @MebFaber @BitMNR.
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@Polymarket Permanent peace deal is vague. Does agreeing the memorandum of understanding count as a permanent peace deal?
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JUST IN: US & Iran projected to reach a permanent peace deal by June 15.
52% chance. polymarket.com/event/us-x-ira…
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@beauhightowerdn Because that’s the paper price, gas you put in your car is not based on the paper price
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Crude oil is 90 a barrel yet we're paying 5 bucks a gallon. Someone please explain
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@BrettErickson28 We don’t actually have any chips it’s just us giving in to every Iranian demand but we’re not going to do anything to improve the situation so surrender now is better than surrender later
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It is very clear that the United States does not hold the cards. Cash in the remaining chips and leave the table with whatever integrity we have left.
ian bremmer@ianbremmer
significant additional climbdown in war goals from president trump. iranian leaders have to be pleased with the progress on their “how about nothing” negotiating efforts.
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What is a stock you are 100% convinced will be worth $0 by 2030?
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@Tesler914 @mb_ghalibaf They won’t give it up, they are just trying to trade future promises that they have no intention of keeping for money now.
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There is no way that Iran is stupid enough give away its only real leverage for 30 days. 30 days easily becomes 60 days then 180 days. This would be a massive blunder on Iran's part from a strategic standpoint. imo @mb_ghalibaf
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
THE DRAFT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN PROVIDES FOR A PERIOD OF 30 DAYS FOR THE RESTORATION OF NAVIGATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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👀🛢️Where are all the Panicans who said oil was going to $150 a barrel now? 🤡
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@bariksis Not nearly as insane as everyone piling into the AI trade that has no conceivable path to profitability and has propped up earnings through circular financing and depreciating costs while counting all revenues up front.
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@JoshYoung I’m buying oil with everything I have on Tuesday morning if it’s still around these prices
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So if there is a deal (which there isn't yet), Iran is going to wait another month to open the Strait of Hormuz? And oil prices are down on this?
Energy Headline News@OilHeadlineNews
Iran to open Hormuz 30 days after US deal to end fighting: source Tehran still not close to signing an agreement, Foreign Ministry spokesperson says - Reuters
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@gbrew24 There are already plenty of examples of other countries that do the same thing. I think the environmental fees will be accepted and normalized
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Folks shouldn't get ahead of themselves.
Iran's ability to keep the strait closed by force will weaken once there's a deal in place.
Yes, they will extract *something* from *someone* to signify the "new status quo."
I'm not confident it will deliver much of a windfall for the regime, not when compared to the billions it is about to access in frozen funds or what it will earn from non-sanctioned trade.
What matters--the credibility of the threat to close the strait, and keep it closed, if they are attacked--is not something anyone can take away from them, and therefore doesn't need to be codified.
Gregory Brew@gbrew24
Good news: Iran MFA spox explicitly says there won't be any tolls on ships in the strait. Bad news: there will be, he says, a "fee" for services provided by Iran (and Oman) in the management of the strait. Working out what this means, how much it will cost, and who will play it is likely to take a while.
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@adamtaggart @unusual_whales Nearly every one of my employees (salary $60-80k per year) are completely broke and constantly asking for pay advancements, much more than ever before. In the GFC if you weren’t in the 10% unemployed you were okay. Today if you aren’t in the top 10% you are seriosly struggling
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Man, I'll be one of the first to say things aren't perfect...but worse than the GFC?? Worse than 9/11??
Folks, GDP is growing at 4% this quarter and the stock market is at all-time highs
I realize that this prosperity isn't equally distributed, but trust me -- take today's conditions and then plunge in country into a recession plus a prolonged bear market & things can get MUCH worse
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BREAKING: Americans are feeling worse about the economy now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial crisis, and following the 9/11 attacks, per YF
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@hoopsdunker32 Have you watched them play? It’s pretty obvious why everyone hates them…
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@TOzgokmen What you’re describing is exactly prices rising to destroy demand which they must when supply is lower than natural demand. You’re just correctly pointing out that the demand destruction will be much greater in poorer countries.
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Prices will not rise to destroy demand: WRONG way to look at it.
Prices will rise because some countries will bid up the price to grab more oil for themselves. Rich countries will get oil & others will starve. All kinds of backroom deals will play out.
Wars cannot be excluded to grab more oil than others, or maybe to attack Iran or US Navy to open the Hormuz.
Oil price may or may not be the main player; this is what minds trained with the scope of equilibrium economics cannot grasp. There are other prices or costs.
Louis@louishliu
For those long oil, it’s been frustrating to see policymakers using headlines and social media to suppress oil futures. But it’s just a matter of time before those oil molecules run out and prices have to rise to destroy demand.
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@WeTheBrandon Any idea why he would do this? The deal is already almost impossible why would he insert another impossible demand? Is he trying to make sure a deal can’t happen?
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The level of delusion coming from Trump is astonishing. What happened to him?
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: President Trump says negotations with Iran will "only be a great deal for all or, no deal at all, back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before." He also calls on Middle East countries, including Iran, to sign on to the Abraham Accords.
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@Nick_duCat Because we live in the dumbest time ever. Maybe we somehow avoid anything too bad from this (doubt it) but at some point the way the market currently behaves is certain to create a 1929 type moment
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Why does the market continue to believe these "peace deal" announcements when they continue to be incorrect over and over and over......
Jeffrey Currie 🆔++@CommodMkt
Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West. Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached is the clip: 50 years of efficiency made oil cheaper per unit of GDP but more irreplaceable in function -- it is the rare earth of the macro system. cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…
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@mark_slapinski Look up tokenmaxing, that’s already basically happening
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A random thought popped in my head
What if people overloaded AI bots by asking them really stupid questions that require a lot of energy to answer.
And then the AI bots run out of resources, thus saving humanity from extinction?
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@clintoptions What do you think AI is? They are the new meme stocks
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How has there not been a meme stock explosion with the current bull run being so strong??
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Holy sh*t. Thomas Massie says he’s going to start publicly naming billionaires implicated in the Epstein files because Trump’s DOJ refuses to convict.
More courage than the rest of the GOP has combined.
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🚨 Oil dropped nearly 5% today because people think a deal might happen. It's $91 a barrel right now.
The Strait is still closed, nothing is signed, and key disputes remain unresolved
Markets are very calm and rational about this.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. intelligence says that Iran's Supreme Leader is operating from a hidden location and communicating almost entirely through couriers It’s already been 11 weeks since Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader, and the guy still hasn’t done a single video, audio, or public appearance. Just short written statements read by anchors on TV. On top of that, it’s directly messing with the negotiations. U.S. officials are getting frustrated because their proposals sit unanswered for days or even weeks. Everything has to physically travel through couriers to this wounded, reclusive leader. At the most critical moment in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Iran's leadership structure may be its own biggest obstacle. Source: CBS News
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