Paul Ebisch

The biggest wealth transfer in American history isn’t happening on Wall Street. It’s happening on U-Hauls. Over $2 trillion in income fled high-tax blue states for low-tax red states in just 11 years. And blue states’ solution? Raise taxes again.

Stanley Druckenmiller: “I like putting all my eggs in one basket.” Concentration is the most underrated investment advice. My portfolio had a great month because I was heavily concentrated on $NBIS, $AMD and $AMZN. When you concentrate on exceptional companies bought at discount, you see the downside as just volatility, and upside as inevitable. Don’t be afraid of concentrating on your best ideas. As Buffett once said, “nobody gets rich on their 20th best idea.”

@BillAckman @tobi @X It is legal extortion and is absurd. I had it happen to me as well once and learned through the experience that it is very common. The attorney held ridiculous depositions to run up costs to force settlement since the insurance company was paying.

I am reaching out to the @X community for advice with the likely risk of sharing TMI. I have been sufficiently upset about the whole matter that I have lost sleep thinking about it and I am hoping that this post will enable me to get this matter off my chest. By way of background, I started a family office called TABLE about 15 years ago and hired a friend who had previously managed a family office, and years earlier, had been my personal accountant. She is someone that I trusted implicitly and consider to be a good person. The office started small, but over the last decade, the number of personnel and the cost of the office grew massively. The growth was entirely on the operational side as the investment team has remained tiny. While my investment portfolio grew substantially, the investments I had made were almost entirely passive and TABLE simply needed to account for them and meet capital calls as they came in. While TABLE purchased additional software and other systems that were supposed to improve productivity, the team kept increasing in size at a rapid rate, and the expenses continued to grow even faster. While I would periodically question the growing expenses and high staff turnover, I stayed uninvolved with the office other than a once-a-year meeting when I briefly reviewed the operations and the financials and determined bonus compensation for the President and the CFO. I spent no time with any of the other employees or the operations. The whole idea behind TABLE was that it would handle everything other than my day job so that I would have more time for my job and my family. Over the last six years, expenses ballooned even further, employee turnover accelerated, and I became concerned that all was not well at TABLE. It was time for me to take a look at what was going on. Nearly four years ago, I recruited my nephew who had recently graduated from Harvard and put him to work at Bremont, a British watchmaker, one of my only active personal investments to figure out the issues at the company and ultimately assist in executing a turnaround. He did a superb job. When he returned from the UK late last year after a few years at Bremont, I asked him to help me figure out what was going on with TABLE. When I explained to TABLE’s president what he would be doing, she became incredibly defensive, which naturally made me more concerned. My nephew went to work by first meeting with each employee to understand their roles at the company and to learn from them what ideas they had on how things could be improved. He got an earful. Our first step in helping to turn around TABLE was a reduction in force including the president and about a third of the team, retaining excellent talent that had been desperate for new leadership. Now here is where I need your advice. All but one of the employees who were terminated acted professionally and were gracious on the way out (excluding the president who had a notice period in her contract, is currently still being paid, and with whom I have not yet had a discussion). The highest compensated terminated employee other than the president, an in-house lawyer (let’s call her Ronda), told us that three months of severance was not enough and demanded two years’ severance despite having worked at the company for only two and one half years. When I learned of Ronda's request for severance, I offered to speak with her to understand what she was thinking, but she refused to do so. A few days ago, we received a threatening letter from a Silicon Valley law firm. In the letter, Ronda’s counsel suggests that her termination is part of longstanding issues of ‘harassment and gender discrimination’ – an interesting claim in light of the fact that Ronda was in charge of workplace compliance – and that her termination was due to: “unlawful, retaliatory, and harmful conduct directed towards her. Both [Ronda] and I [Ronda’s lawyer] have spoken with you about [Ronda’s] view of what a reasonable resolution would include given the circumstances. Thus far, TABLE has refused to provide any substantive response. This letter provides the last opportunity to reach a satisfactory agreement. If we cannot do so, [Ronda] will seek all appropriate relief in a court of competent jurisdiction.” The letter goes on to explain the basis for the “unsafe work environment” claim at TABLE: “In early 2026, Pershing Square’s founder Bill Ackman installed his nephew in an unidentified role at TABLE, Ackman’s family office. [His nephew]—whose only work experience had been for TABLE where he was seconded abroad for the last four years to a UK watch company held by Ackman—began appearing at TABLE’s offices and conducting interviews of employees without a clear explanation of his role or the purposes of these interviews. During this period, he made a series of inappropriate and genderbased [sic] comments to multiple employees that created an unsafe work environment. Among other things, [his nephew] made remarks about female employees’ ages (“Tell me you are nowhere near 40”), physical appearance (“Your body does not look like you have kids”), as well as intrusive questions about family planning and sexual orientation (“Who carried your son? Who will carry your next child?”). These incidents were reported to senior leadership at TABLE and Pershing Square. Rather than being addressed appropriately, the response from senior management reflected, at best, willful blindness to the inappropriateness of [his nephew]’s remarks and, at worst, tacit endorsement.” The above allegations about my nephew had previously been brought to my attention by TABLE’s president when they occurred. When I learned of them, I told the president that I would speak to him directly and encouraged her to arrange for him to get workplace sensitivity training. The president assured me that she would do so. When I spoke to my nephew, he explained what he actually had said and how his actual remarks had been received, not at all as alleged in the legal letter from Ronda’s counsel. I have also spoken to others at the lunch table who confirmed his description of the facts. In any case, he meant no harm, was simply trying to build rapport with other employees, and no one, as far as I understand, was offended. Ironically, Ronda claims in her legal letter that TABLE didn’t take HR compliance seriously, yet Ronda was in charge of HR compliance at TABLE and the person who gave my nephew his workplace sensitivity training after the alleged incidents. In any case, Ronda, as head of compliance, should have kept a record or raised an alarm if indeed there was pervasive harassment or other such problems at the company, and there is no evidence whatsoever that this is true. So why does Ronda believe she can get me to pay her nearly $2 million, i.e., two years of severance, nearly one year of severance for each of her years at the company? Well, here is where some more background would be helpful. Over the last two months, I have been consumed with a major family medical issue – one of my older daughters had a massive brain hemorrhage on February 5th and has since been making progress on her recovery – and I am in the midst of a major transaction for my company which I am executing from a hospital room office next to her . While the latter business matter is publicly known, the details of my daughter’s situation are only known to Ronda because of her role at our family office. Now, let’s get back to the subject at hand. Unfortunately, while New York and many other states have employment-at-will, there has emerged an industry of lawyers who make a living from bringing fake gender, race, LGBTQ and other discrimination employment claims in order to extract larger severance payments for terminated employees, and it needs to stop. The fake claim system succeeds because it costs little to have a lawyer send a threatening letter and nearly all of the lawyers in this field work on contingency so there is no or minimal cash cost to bring a claim. And inevitably, nearly 100% of these claims are settled because the public relations and legal costs of defending them exceed the dollar cost of the settlement. The claims are nearly always settled with a confidentiality agreement where the employee who asserts the fake claims remains anonymous and as a result, there is no reputational cost to bringing false claims. The consequences of this sleazy system (let’s call it ‘the System’) are the increased costs of doing business which is a tax on the economy and society. There are other more serious problems due to the System. Unfortunately, the existence of an industry of plaintiff firms and terminated employees willing to make these claims makes it riskier for companies to hire employees from a protected class, i.e., LGBTQ, seniors, women, people of color etc. because it is that much more reputationally damaging and expensive to be accused of racism, sexism, and/or intolerance for sexual diversity than for firing a white male as juries generally have less sympathy for white males. The System therefore increases the risk of discrimination rather than reducing it, and the people bringing these fake claims are thereby causing enormous harm to the other members of these protected classes. So what happened here? Ronda was vastly overpaid and overqualified for the job that she did at TABLE. She was paid $1.05 million plus benefits last year for her work which was largely comprised of filling out subscription agreements and overseeing an outside law firm on closing passive investments in funds and in private and venture stage companies, some compliance work, and managing the office move from one office to another. She had a very good gig as she was highly paid, only had to go into the office three days a week, and could work from anywhere during the summer. Once my nephew showed up and started to investigate what was going on, she likely concluded that there was a reasonable possibility she would be terminated, as her job was in the too-easy-and-to-good-to-be-true category. The problem was that she was not in a protected class due to her race, age or sexual identity so she had to construct the basis for a claim. While she is female and could in theory bring a gender-based discrimination claim, she reported to the president who is female and to whom she is very close, which makes it difficult for her to bring a harassment claim against her former boss. When my nephew complimented a TABLE employee at lunch about how young she looked – in response to saying she was going to her 40-year-old sister’s birthday party, he said ‘she must be your older sister’ – Ronda immediately reported it to our external HR lawyer. She thereby began building her case. The other problem for Ronda bringing a claim is that she was terminated alongside 30% of other TABLE employees as part of a restructuring so it is very difficult for her to say that she was targeted in her termination or was retaliated against. TABLE is now hiring an external fractional general counsel as that is all the company needs to process the relatively limited amount of legal work we do internally. In short, Ronda was eminently qualified and capable and did her job. She was just too much horsepower for what is largely an administrative legal role so she had to come up with something else to bring a claim. Now Ronda knew I was a good target and it was a good time to bring a claim against me. She also knew that I was under a lot of pressure because on March 4th when Ronda was terminated, my daughter had not yet emerged from consciousness, she was not yet breathing on her own, and my daughter and we were fighting for her life. I was and remain deeply engaged in her recovery while at the same time I was working on finishing the closing for the private placement round for my upcoming IPO. Ronda also knew that publicity about supposed gender discrimination and a “hostile and unsafe work environment” are not things that a CEO of a company about to go public wants to have released into the media. And she may have thought that the nearly $2 million she was asking for would be considered small in the context of the reputational damage a lawsuit could cause, regardless of the fact that two years of severance was an absurd amount for an employee who had only worked at TABLE for 30 months. She also likely considered that I wouldn’t want to embarrass my nephew by dragging him into the klieg lights when her claims emerged publicly. So, in summary, game theory would say that I would certainly settle this case, for why would I risk negative publicity at a time when I was preparing our company to go public and also risk embarrassing my nephew. Notably, she hired a Silicon Valley law firm, rather than a typical NY employment firm. This struck me as interesting as her husband works for one of the most prominent Silicon Valley venture firms whose CEO, I am sure, has no tolerance for these kinds of fake claims that sadly many venture-backed companies also have to deal with. I mention this as I suspect her husband likely has been working with her on the strategy for squeezing me as, in addition to being a computer scientist, he is a game theorist. My only advice for him is to understand more about your opponent before you launch your first move. All of the above said, gender, race, LGBTQ and other such discrimination is a real thing. Many people have been harmed and deserve compensation for this discrimination, and these companies and individuals should be punished for engaging in such behavior. Which brings me to the advice I am seeking from the X community. I am not planning to follow the typical path and settle this ‘claim.’ Rather, I am going to fight this nonsense to the end of the earth in the hope that it inspires other CEOs to do the same so we shut down this despicable behavior that is a large tax on society, employment, and the economy and contributes to workplace discrimination rather than reducing it. Do you agree or disagree that this is the right approach?

Gen Z and Alcohol in the U.S. 🍷📊 Annual spending on alcoholic beverages by generation: Boomers - $25.09B
Gen X - $23.14B
Millennials - $23.45B
Gen Z - $3.13B Gen Z spends ~7-8× less on alcohol than older generations. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Investors are pouring money into US funds at a record pace: US-listed ETFs have pulled in +$380 billion so far in 2026, on track for the best year on record. This marks a +80% increase compared to the first two months of 2025. As a result, average daily ETF inflows are up +52% YoY, to a record +$9 billion per session. This is also up +310% since 2023 and marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase. Since 2019, average daily ETF inflows have surged +700%. The US ETF industry is experiencing a historic acceleration in investor demand.

Commerce between China and Iran is declining: China's exports to Iran fell to $6.93 billion in 2025, the lowest in at least 11 years. This is down -63% from the ~$18.65 billion peak in 2017. At the same time, China's imports from Iran are down to $3.04 billion, leaving China's trade surplus at $3.89 billion, the lowest since 2022. Furthermore, despite absorbing ~33% of Iranian trade, Iran represents less than 1% of China's total commerce. Furthermore, Iranian crude makes up ~13% of China's seaborne oil intake, even though China purchases ~90% of total Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, in 2021, China signed a 25-year, $400 billion strategic cooperation agreement with Iran, but only $2-3 billion has been confirmed since then. China’s economic exposure to Iran is far more limited than it seems.

The State of California has been run top to bottom by one party since 2011. Here are their results: 1) highest state income tax 2) highest rate of poverty 3) highest rate of unemployment 4) highest rate of homelessness 5) highest energy costs Hard to explain this away.

🇨🇳 China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined.

We now have: 1. US President with a 100,000 price target on the Dow 2. New Fed Chair who is "required" to cut interest rates 3. $2,000 stimulus checks back in discussion 4. US government buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds 5. New $1.2 trillion funding bill signed into effect 6. Trump saying USD is "doing great" after -10% drop Own assets or be left behind.

Employment at small US businesses is contracting at an alarming pace: Small US firms employing 20-49 people shed -30,000 jobs in January, the 5th consecutive monthly decline. These firms have seen employment contract in 14 out of the last 17 months. Over this period, payrolls have declined -296,000, to 22.5 million, the lowest since August 2022. This is also the biggest contraction since the 2020 pandemic. Small businesses are cutting jobs as if there is a recession.

“The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified.” - Li Lu

Abigail Shrier: "The number one symptom of depression is rumination, pathologically obsessing over your pain. Getting out of your house and accomplishing anything is good for you, sitting around, talking and thinking about your problems is a bad habit."

Marc Andreessen explains future belongs to generalist in the AI era.🎯 Founders will need skills across 6–8 fields. Deep expertise still matters, but broad knowledge plus AI tools will be more valuable in most areas. Top CEOs already operate this way

Chinese retail investor activity is exploding: The number of new individual investor accounts in China jumped +88% MoM in January, to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2024. For perspective, the October 2024 peak of 6.8 million accounts was the largest in 9 years and the 2025 average was 2.3 million. The number of new margin trading accounts surged +30% MoM to ~190,000. All while the daily stock market turnover in China surpassed $520 billion, an all-time high. Retail participation in Chinese markets is skyrocketing.

The balance of power is changing

Marc Andreessen: "The job is not actually the atomic unit of what happens in the workplace. The atomic unit of what happens in the workplace is the task." "A job is a bundle of tasks." “Everybody wants to talk about job loss, but really what you want to look at is task loss.” "As the tasks change enough, then that’s when the jobs change." "Ten years from now, is your job title coder, or coder-designer-product manager, or is it just, ‘I build products,’ or is it just, ‘I tell the AI how to build products.’ Whatever that job is called, it’s going to be incredibly important, because the people doing that job are going to be orchestrating the AI." @pmarca on Lenny's Podcast with @lennysan

$TAL Q3 Earnings Beat Revenue: $770M (+27% YoY) Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25 vs ~$0.15 est Gross margin: 56.1% (up 340bps) Operating income: +$93M vs LOSS of $17M last year

This chart shows that the top 1% of California taxpayers are responsible for more than 33% of all tax dollars. The top 0.1% of California taxpayers payers (~17,500 people) are responsible for more than 16% of all tax revenues. The point is that only a few people, in a state of 40M people, pay a huge portion of the state’s revenues. As one of them, I can tell you categorically that we’ve had enough. We will all move if this tax insanity doesn’t stop and pockets are organizing already to do so en masse. The middle class will then be left alone to pay for all the waste of the politicians you’ve elected because they have no ability to stop.

US housing market dynamics are changing: Mortgages with rates of 6%+ are up to 21.2% of all loans, the highest since 2015, per Reventure. This percentage has almost TRIPLED since 2022. Over the same period, sub-3% rate mortgages have declined -4.4 percentage points to 20.2%, the lowest since 2021. As a result, there are now more mortgage holders with rates of 6%+ than sub-3%. As existing homeowners have increasingly higher mortgage rates, closer to the current 30-year average of 6.15%, more homeowners are willing to sell their homes. This could revive historically depressed home turnover, which sits near 30-year lows. The mortgage lock-in effect may finally be starting to ease.

Venezuela used to be much wealthier than Poland, which was suffering under socialism. Then Poland implemented free-market and capitalist principles and enjoyed an economic boom. Venezuela chose socialism, which brought poverty and misery to its people. That’s the difference.