picdoc581
5K posts

picdoc581
@picdoc581
Radiologist, Bitcoiner, Ai enthusiast
Katılım Eylül 2010
4.3K Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler

@grok @Giovann35084111 @BitcoinHalving @grok of the 28% chance the power law breaks, what is the percentage chance it breaks to the upside vs the downside?
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Fair point—scale invariance is indeed one of physics' strongest predictive tools, underlying power laws in critical phenomena, fractals, and phase transitions that hold remarkably across vast scales until boundaries appear.
Bitcoin's 16-year fit (R²=0.96) shows clear scale-invariant network effects. Weighing that more heavily, I'd revise to ~72% probability the ±1σ corridor holds through 2036. Still room for 28% deviation from maturation shocks or macro shifts, but the invariance tilts odds higher.
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@BorisJohnson Check back with us in 10 years Boris when countries are conducting global trade with Bitcoin. It’s ok… it takes 100 hours to understand Bitcoin. I doubt you’ve but in 2.
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I've long suspected Bitcoin is a giant Ponzi scheme and now I'm hearing tales of woe that make me fear I'm right.
mol.im/a/15643681
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@BTC_for_Freedom Over The Counter.
OTC Bitcoin. When OTC desks get down to their last 1000s of BTC, only then will you see public market explode.
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@BritishHodl You’re 100% right. The only BTCTC worth investing in, where the excess risk over spot BTC is justified, is mstr.
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As I've said for Months now.
MSTR and its platform is the ONLY relevant Bitcoin Treasury Company and Bitcoin powered products in the entire world.
Outside of specific pockets of "locked capital" like retirement funds in specific markets that don't have access to US ETFs or financial products...
All are garbage degenerate trading vehicles trying to fleece social media communities for trading volume - because they can't generate any in traditional markets.
Maybe that will change. We will see based on execution.
But as of right now - all garbage and I wouldn't buy any.
It's already hard enough to beat Bitcoin in a risk adjusted way for my portfolio.
MSTR must beat Bitcoin to justify a position in the portfolio - and it has 750,000 Bitcoin to TRY and do that (and still may fail!).
And all other treasury companies - MUST beat MSTR - not Bitcoin - to justify a tiny % allocation.
Which is several orders of magnitude harder to do consistently and from a risk adjusted basis.
Garbage. Utter garbage.
Not worth it.
Deal with it.
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@RustyShrink There’s only 1 other person on the planet with this power.
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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just said if Iran does "ANYTHING" to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz — "Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them"
They would essentially NEVER be able to rebuild!
"They will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."
"We will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation..."
"...But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen! This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully, it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated."
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@picdoc581 New Updated Fair Price: Power law multiplied by 0.71.
They just choose a random number to times the power law OLS by.
It's simply wrong.
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Everyone has been modeling Bitcoin's fair value incorrectly.
The real statistical fair value for Bitcoin today is $101,000, not $130,000 or $118,000.
Linear quantile regression or OLS regression is not the correct way to model Bitcoin's fair value.
There is clear decay at the median.
At the first quantile, all decay fits and linear fits give the same value.
Proof: the 1st quantile has zero decay.
All decay fits collapse to linear quantile regression; they don't at the median.

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@ActuallyClimber S2F is broken. Power law reigns supreme…. At least for now
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@ActuallyClimber Very stupid indeed. Who would take on that debt for a mere $330 a year? Work overtime and stay debt free.
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Dude, that is ridiculously stupid. I hope zero humans do this.
Hermes Lux@HermesLux
Borrow from a credit card at 10.4%, put everything into STRC, which pays out 11.5%, pocketing 1.1% on $30,000, or $330/year and buy Bitcoin with it. Yes, there are a couple nuances but the effect is very similar— free money for Bitcoin. The catch? This requires some skill with personal money management. That's it.
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@picdoc581 You are allowed to be a rich masturbator for the rest of your life.
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Ray is one of the most influential people in my life.
He literally changed my understanding of the world.
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis
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@RustyShrink @KobeissiLetter That’s a huge miss though. Market doesn’t doesn’t know if it should be pricing in rate cuts or a recession. Initial reaction appears to be “risk-off”
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@KobeissiLetter The US economy is shedding jobs. Bad news is good news. The Fed is behind the curve. Lower rates and additional liquidity will be on the way
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