Lee (aka pumpedlunch)

@AcrossProtocol @arc 🌉

Across is live on @Arc Testnet. The Economic OS for the internet.

@jamesrichardfry @Infinity_d0 Not this cute little hamster: 🐹

everything on this app is either rage bait or undisclosed ads

@BenniDaytime @AcrossProtocol just make sure you disable the button on high slippage

What if @AcrossProtocol thought of the children?

@hosseeb @ErikVoorhees @_choppingblock Great guest! I want tcb's take on the Across token to equity proposal: x.com/hal2001/status…

We're bringing on @ErikVoorhees on @_choppingblock this week. What should we ask him?

Today UMA is announcing a deep partnership with Predict, the leading prediction market platform on Binance's BNB chain. This is a big integration. UMA now processes over 100k prediction market resolutions per month—this is 100x more than 18 months ago. And UMA will soon be rolling out much faster resolutions (as short as 5mins!) for most Predict markets.

@BenniDaytime dream job!

Royal Bank of Canada is currently hiring crypto and digital asset architect positions. Just thought you should know that.

@notnotstorm @hellomondaycom @AlliumLabs this is awesome. feature request: add event and/or market count in addition to volume & OI

check out the explorer here predictions.paradigm.xyz we also wrote a blogpost about it here paradigm.xyz/2026/02/introd… big thanks to @hellomondaycom for helping us build the frontend and @AlliumLabs for providing much of the raw data

new from paradigm: we are building a tool for exploring prediction market data try it out today. I bet you'll find new markets you never knew existed

@kanishkkhurana No pumpedlunch 🙅🏻‍♂️

Every question Polymarket has ever asked, recorded on an immutable ledger.

@BlockChainJimbo @UMAprotocol where is "here"? on X's feed? at your current unspecified meatspace location? PMs NEED TO KNOW

yo @UMAprotocol i feel like there are synergies here

@hosseeb rough hair day?

tough day for me and my beanie please send thoughts and prayers

Bridge everything on Across. Bridge any token across many chains in a single transaction. Fast. Cheap. Secure.

@kanishkkhurana I think this is a good thing. Disconnect and enjoy your time off until you feel the above. Then use that feeling as validation that you’re in the right place and motivation for the days your job feels like a grind.

My life changed a little when I realised I can't take 2 weeks off, not because I won't get it, but because I wouldn't know what to do with myself if I take 2 weeks off. Ideas please ?

@peterus Very cool! I submitted a real world prediction market dispute that resulted in Verisage's first split decision. AI will (and has already in small ways) impacted prediction market resolution. It's just a matter of what roles it can effectively play and how that increases over time

Built an UMA-style LLM Oracle this weekend - multi-model, real-time, and verifiable inside an Oasis ROFL TEE 🛡️ AI agents can trigger verifiable truth checks via x402 payments. verisage.xyz | github.com/ptrus/verisage…

@BenjaminDay MLB should use UMA 4 this

I gotta see the clip of him picking it up and throwing it after claiming dead ball (and getting it)

@mannyornothing @mbaril010 @AirCanada u took the upgrade every time. “Have fun with the kids babe”

@mbaril010 @AirCanada Lol . Been there too many times.

You want to know how stupid @AirCanada is? Im flying with my gf and they upgraded me but not her. Sure im gonna fly business while she is in premium. Do they have a brain ?

@mannyornothing You get vacation in stealth mode???

CTO is on vacation. Cursor in slack can push changes to the code. Looks like I am the captain.

@decenterghost @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Great breakdown. Glad to see another person become OO-pilled!

How UMA Oracle Works: The Genius of Paying People to Tell the Truth Imagine you and your friends made a bet about whether the principal would wear a blue suit to the next assembly. Problem: how do you prove it actually happened? Who decides if it was really blue? Who settles the argument when someone claims "that was more navy than blue"? This is the oracle problem. In prediction markets, millions of dollars are on the line. You need someone -or something -that can look at reality and say "yes, it happened" or "no, it didn't" And that someone can't be bribed, can't be lazy, and has to be right Welcome to UMA Oracle. It's not one person. It's not a computer algorithm. It's actually something smarter: it's a system that pays people to be honest The Genius Idea: Optimism With Incentives Here's how @UMAprotocol works -and it's beautifully simple: Step 1: Someone proposes an answer Event resolved? Someone puts up money (~$750) and says "Biden dropped out on July 21, 2024. Resolved: YES" Step 2: The challenge period For 2 hours, anyone can dispute it. Think you can prove them wrong? Put up $750 of your own money and challenge them Step 3: If nobody challenges... it's done 95% of the time? Nobody challenges. The answer stands. Game over. The proposer gets their money back plus a small reward (~$50-100). Done in 2 hours Step 4: If someone challenges... actual voting happens Now it escalates to UMA token holders -thousands of people with real money at stake. They vote on what actually happened. Simple majority wins. If you voted wrong? You get slashed (lose a tiny % of your stake). If you voted right? You get rewarded Why This Is Brilliant 1. It's Expensive to Lie Think about the math: to move a market falsely, you'd need to: -- Propose a lie (lose $750) -- Watch someone challenge it (they're $750 in too) -- Lose the vote in UMA (someone gets your money anyway) So now you've lost $750+ trying to manipulate a market where maybe you could've made $1,000 if you'd won Compare that to traditional systems where one person makes the decision. There? You only need to bribe or threaten one person. Here? You'd need to control thousands of token holders. Good luck 2. It Scales Efficiently 11,000+ markets have been resolved. Gas costs? Like $0.01-0.05 per operation. That's basically free. Traditional centralized oracles? They'd charge $100+ per market resolution. UMA does it for pennies And 98% of resolutions happen without any disputes. You know why? Because people know disputing costs them money, so they don't bother unless they're actually right 3. It Handles Real-World Messy Questions Chainlink Oracle? It handles prices. Asset ABC = $123.45. Binary. Clear UMA? It handles reality. "Will Zelensky wear a suit in June 2025?" "Will a peace deal be reached?" "Did the storm cause more than $10B in damage?" These aren't price feeds -they're events, narratives, judgment calls The Real-World Examples That Prove It Works The Biden Withdrawal (July 2024) Biden announced he was dropping out of the race on X. The market resolved in 2 hours. No disputes. Why? Because it was obvious. There's video. Official statement. Everyone could see it. Proposing "No, Biden didn't drop out" would be insane -you'd lose $750 instantly This is the Schelling Point in action. Everyone converges on the obvious truth because lying costs money and truth costs nothing Result: Perfect resolution. Market settled. Life moves on When It Worked Even When People Tried to Game It Another market: "Will Biden drop out?" before he actually did The price hit 80% probability to "Yes" weeks before the official announcement. Why? Because people with information about what was happening in the campaign -real insider talk, credible rumors, smart analysis -were buying "Yes" contracts They weren't lying. They were just earlier than everyone else. And that's fine. That's what markets are supposed to do: reward accurate information. Result: The market worked like a truth-finding engine. Money followed reality How It Actually Protects Itself The Bond System: -- You put up money to propose: $750 gone if you're wrong -- Someone challenges: now they're $750 down if they're wrong -- Suddenly everyone's thinking hard about what's actually true The Voting System: -- If you vote wrong in UMA: 0.1% of your stake gets slashed -- Doesn't sound like much, but imagine having $10,000 staked. That's $10 gone per wrong vote -- Do that 10 times a year carelessly? That's $100 in losses. Now you pay attention The Whitelist (MOOV2): -- Only proven truth-tellers can propose on big markets -- Your first proposal? It's public. Your accuracy record is visible -- Everyone can see: "Oh, this person's been 95%+ accurate over 100+ proposals." Worth trusting them Result: The system creates incentives for honesty The Philosophical Beauty Here's what's actually genius about this: You don't need to trust that people are good. You don't need to trust institutions. You don't need to trust anything except math and money Compare: -- Traditional oracle: "Trust this company. They're reliable" -- UMA oracle: "Lie and lose money. Tell the truth and make money. Choose" The first requires faith. The second doesn't. It requires only rational self-interest, which is something you can count on Why This Matters for Prediction Markets Polymarket can exist and grow because UMA solved the resolver problem. Without it? -- Every market needs a centralized judge -- That judge can be corrupted, sued, pressured -- The whole thing collapses into litigation With UMA? -- Markets resolve through economic incentives -- Thousands of token holders can't be bribed together -- The system is resilient 11,000+ markets resolved. 94%+ accuracy. Billions in value secured The Bottom Line UMA Oracle is like asking "how do we get thousands of people to tell the truth about something?" Answer: Pay them to. Punish them for lying. Make it all transparent. Let the community watch Is it perfect? No. Will there be edge cases? Absolutely. Do whales sometimes try to game it? Yes But 98% of the time, it works flawlessly. And the 2% of the time it doesn't? The system learns and improves That's not just smart engineering. That's actually kind of beautiful

UMA is a decentralized truth machine that resolves thousands of wide ranging polymarkets a day, not powered by trusted parties, but by permissionless participants incentivized to be honest and diligent. "That's not just smart engineering. That's actually kind of beautiful." - indeed! Read more in this excellent breakdown. x.com/decenterghost/…