

Robert C. O'Brien
3.3K posts

@robertcobrien
Robert C. O'Brien served as the 27th Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. Views on this account are personal.















SPACEX IS ON ABSOLUTE FIRE RIGHT NOW🔥 TWO Falcon 9 launches in the last 10 HOURS - Starlink 17-24 from Vandenberg - Starlink 10-46 from Cape Canaveral 50+ satellites dropped in one day like it’s nothing Literally no one else can pull this off But It's just another day at spaceX

When @LindseyGrahamSC and other Reagan conservatives voice doubts over value of “European allies,” the moment is at hand for Europe to choose. I hope they do so wisely.

CAPTURED. Sebastian Marset’s reign of terror and chaos is over. Thanks to President @Rodrigo_PazP's leadership and rapidly strengthening U.S.-Bolivia law enforcement cooperation, notorious drug trafficker Marset will face justice. The Shield of the Americas is making our region safer and stronger.




Let me tell you the secret difference between a Navy and merchant ship captain that goes beyond the obvious. It’s 1AM & I feel sick to my stomach over this war and can’t sleep. I’m at a shipowner conference & I had dinner with a gentleman from Dubai and one from Tel Aviv. Both had the dispassion of distance but one told me his family is furious with America and it won’t be safe to visit his nation for years. The other said his nation is eternally grateful. Both are getting attacked by Iran with similar weapons but the reactions are polar opposite. The difference of course is duration. One thinks if we stop tomorrow then Iran will stop. The other thinks if we stop tomorrow the attacks will never end. Perception is an important component of reality. Iran knows this which is why they are attacking Iran. Iran’s calculus includes perception and public outrage. Change the UAE’s perception to that of Israel & the bombing of Dubai would likely stop. Calculus is important in war. Now of course it’s not just perception. The US did strike Iran knowing the calculus. We are responsible for the strikes. What does this have to do with commercial ships? At the conference every single shipowner I talk to says it’s not worth risking a single life running the Strait of Hormuz. The merchant marine captain part of my brain agrees fully with this. The problem is the son of a decorated veteran buried in Arlington does not. The duty of any captain, merchant or Navy, is to do the most good for the most number of people. We would not risk the lives of a single crew saving a ship that’s sinking. That is unless people are trapped below. In that case I might need to risk the life of 2 crew members to go below and rescue 6. The most good for the most people. I don’t care if the ship sinks. It & the cargo are replaceable. But the calculus for a Navy captain is different. The slogan of the Navy is “Don’t give up the ship.” In war a Navy captain might risk the lives of his entire crew to prevent one ship from sinking. Economically the calculus is the same. The Navy ship is more expensive but the government has infinitely more wealth than a shipowner. A warship & a merchant ship can both be replaced with money. The big difference is the Navy ship has a bigger mission than itself. It must stay floating to protect the 5,000+ crew of a carrier or millions in a city it’s defending. The merchant ship captain has nothing more to protect bigger than his ship. Today US Merchant Mariners are typically given medals under one condition: in support of a military mission. These ships are a hybrid. They carry regular cargo most of the time & the captain would let that cargo sink before risking one life. But what if it’s carrying medical supplies? That cargo could save hundreds of lives, a lot more than his 25 crew. If it’s carrying anti-air missiles? Without resupply of those the warship is useless. Now the merchant ship is almost as important as the warship. If it’s carrying fuel for the carrier air wing? Now it might be MORE important than a single destroyer. That’s the secret difference between a merchant & Navy captain. Now the majority of merchant ships in the Persian Gulf do not have military cargo so no shipowner wants to risk a single life. The problem nobody here seems to realize (I got angry replies for bringing up) is individually each ship is replaceable & each individual cargo load is not too important. But collectively the calculus changes. Roughly a third of all fertilizer comes from the Gulf. More if you include the energy needed to make fertilizer elsewhere. One ship won’t make a difference but dozens of sunk ships would lead to mass starvation. “So don’t send any ships through and nothing will be sunk,” said one owner. OK but the ship is not the limiting factor. Delivery of the cargo is. So if Iran sinks 10 ships but 90 make it through, people won’t starve. That’s the new calculus nobody seems to understand.

If the post below doesn’t get me banned from polite society… this one will. The Overton Window exists in war too. The left tried very hard to move the OW after the Iranian warship was torpedoed. Thankfully military veterans and navalists on both sides prevented that from happening. This isn’t the first time. I was in the pentagon briefing room for the Venezuela boat strikes and there was an attempt to shift OW left then too. The truth is currently the OW, even for the most pro-Trump commentators, sits exactly where the strikes have taken place…. And the only people actively pushing-it right are Hegseth and Trump. I was not a supporter of these strikes, I personally asked that @CENTCOM be bulldozed months ago, but as a student of history I also know that military commanders need maneuvering room. If they don’t have it then wars are protracted and more people end up dying and suffering. Fewer wars that are more brutal are what prevent the most death and suffering. Teddy Roosevelt knew this when he built the Great White Fleet and Colin Powell knew this during the first Gulf War when he said we should have an unfair and more lethal advantage. @PeteHegseth has been criticized for replacing liberal media with conservatives in the Pentagon Press Corps (myself included)… but in three press conferences about Iran not one conservative even attempted to shift the OW in Trump’s favor. Several asked about civilian casualties, rescue of the sunk sailors and the extent of damage done…. all questions that move the OW left. None asked if bombing more military targets harder might save civilian lives by shortening the war. Nobody asked if retaliatory strikes could be more brutal forcing a peace. None asked if there are plans to kill more IRGC leaders. And this is why Americans lose wars. Because even those of us labeled “warmongers” by the left are more worried about finding out who accidentally hit a school than how we will win (& thus end) this war. A few have on x have. @ed_fin posted that Iranian oil tankers be told to turn around or be torpedoed. I wrote: ENDORSED Then my good friend Sal @mercoglianos suggested we send special forces to seize the ships. It was a sensible plan. He of course got called a warmonger too. Because he is a good person Sal explained himself on his next video. He explained how ships could be arrested without taking lives. He scoffed at the person calling him a warmonger. Ok, but how is this different than conservatives for years defending themselves from baseless claims of racism? Of course I prefer Sal’s more reasonable plan but I didn’t endorse it. I endorsed Ed’s. Why? Because if the OW is open just enough to do ship boardings then our admirals will likely do nothing. But if OW is open enough to torpedo oil tankers then that gives the warfighter breathing room to pick the more sensible option. The objective of calling us “warmongers” & “racist” is the same: make us defend ourselves which will shift the OW to the left. Let me be clear. I want peace. I want an end to all war. I want this conflict to end now. I also want our commanders to have maximum authority to do that. The purpose of suggesting more brutality on X is not be to encourage more brutality but to give commanders on the field more room to make decisions that shorten the war. Because today I talked to three former submarine commanders and all said they defend the strike but they also said it’s brought unwanted attention on the silent service so it’s unlikey to happen again. We lost that option. We held the OW open just enough to prevent public outrage for the sinking but in reality by not suggesting we hit MORE Iranian warships… it shifted left. If we want to win wars. If we want to prevent more foreign wars. Then someone besides Trump (who normalized the action and pushed the window right by saying they sunk it for fun) will have to help move the OW further right than anyone (myself included) is willing to admit.