Sambeet Parija

you can outsource your thinking but you cannot outsource your understanding

Everyone is shorting SaaS. Everyone is shorting IT consulting companies. Everyone’s seen what’s happened to Salesforce, Atlassian, & Infosys. The trade is crowded, the multiples have already compressed, and the alpha is gone. But.. what if.. I told you there was still a bigger better play. One where a $3.7T economy is structurally short the labor arbitrage that frontier AI models are dismantling, and that the macro plumbing amplifies the shock instead of absorbing it… I love my girlfriend.. but guys.. it’s time to short the Indian rupee. India runs a structural current account deficit which means they spend more on goods/services from the rest of the world than they earn selling their own. They’ve run one every year since the economy liberalized in 1991. Running a current account deficit isn’t fatal, but it’s like a treadmill, you have to keep finding dollars to fund it, year after year, and if any one of the funding sources dries up, the currency adjusts. India has been running on this treadmill for thirty years. The reason India has been able to pull this off is because their deficit is funded by remittances from the Indian diaspora, FDI/portfolio flows, and critically for this trade services exports. Services exports from India are now ~$370B annually and growing, and they have become the single largest plug for India’s external accounts. Goods exports are ~$440B but with imports of ~$680B, the goods trade deficit alone runs ~$240B. Services exports cover that gap and then some, which is why the INR has been remarkably stable around 83–88 per USD for years despite the goods deficit. The composition of these services exports is why this is an AI trade. Roughly 55% of India’s services exports are IT service, software services, and back-office functions that the giant Indian consulting companies sell to US and European enterprises. That’s ~$200B+ annually. If you then add in Global Capability Centers (which are when international companies create an Indian office to offshore work. This is estimated to employ 1.9M people and is growing at 11% YoY), you’re looking at the entire IT services economy producing somewhere between $240–280B of annual export earnings, all of which is dollar-denominated, all of it billed by the hour. This whole sector alone sustains India’s current account deficit and is in the direct line of fire to be automated by AI productivity gains. This is not a 5% problem. This is a 30–60% revenue compression over five years. Roughly half of the $280B base is routine software work like app development, maintenance, and testing that is already replaceable by GenAI coding tools. Another ~25% is call centers, claims processing, document review and that’s even more exposed because the work is more structured and the AI tools there are more mature, putting another ~$38B at risk of a 50% compression. The remaining ~25% is higher-value enterprise work that’s defensible for now but maybe ~$7B is at risk. If you Stack them all you get ~$80B of annualized revenue compression by year five, or 29% of the base gone and that’s the floor for my estimate.. The bear case destroys $140–170B of service exports or 50–60% of the entire industry. The timeline matters here a lot as well. 2027–2029 the Fortune 500 companies will have a good idea of token usage and capacity rationalization leading to vendors shrinking and multi-year contracts repriced lower. Sadly, this exactly when India needs the funding most, because manufacturing PLI revenue won’t have ramped enough to compensate. A 29% revenue compression means India’s IT services exports shrink from ~$280B to ~$200B annually with $80B of dollar earnings gone. The current account deficit today at -1% of GDP is ~$40B today. Meaning you don’t need my bear case to break the rupee just losing $80B of services revenue alone takes the deficit to roughly -3% of GDP, which is historically the level where INR has been forced to depreciate sharply.

The Fed raised rates 525bp over 16 months. Downstream impact: ~$30 trillion moved across bonds, equities, housing, banking, and emerging markets. One input. Four channels. Here's how it actually traveled:

$45T in damage. 13 crises. 10 years. Each began locally. Each spread globally; through supply chains, energy, credit, or policy. Different triggers, similar dynamics: interconnected systems amplify shocks. greymachines.com/blog/13-crises… #SystemsThinking #Macro #Risk

Gold hit $5,595 during the Iran war. Then crashed 27% - while bombs were still falling. War doesn't move gold. Two competing feedback loops do. One drives it up through oil shocks and inflation fear. The other crushes it through dollar strength. #Geopolitics #SystemDynamics

It’s time for Proof Of Human.

@bcherny I tried it. It seems to be having some issues with bug fixing. Bug gets fixed, code simplified introduces a new one. Have to iterate many times to get it right. Ended up consuming more tokens. Same bug was fixed easily with a simple prompt later after disabling simplifier.

In the next version of Claude Code.. We're introducing two new Skills: /simplify and /batch. I have been using both daily, and am excited to share them with everyone. Combined, these kills automate much of the work it used to take to (1) shepherd a pull request to production and (2) perform straightforward, parallelizable code migrations.

The irony is People are trying to learn AI to avoid unemployment But AI is moving so fast, the only way to keep up is to be unemployed

Wow. I finally took the time to listen to Naval's new AI podcast - it was very thought-provoking. He explained who AI will replace, who it won't, and why most people are thinking about it completely wrong. If you're time poor, I summarised the key points: • "Vibe coding is the new product management. Training and tuning models is the new coding." • "There is no demand for average." The best app wins 100% of the category. Everybody else gets nothing. • The medium-sized companies get blown apart. The giant aggregators and the tiny niche apps survive. Everything in between dies. • Don't bother learning prompt engineering. AI is adapting to you faster than you can adapt to it. • Software engineers aren't dead - they're the most leveraged people on earth. A programmer with a fleet of AI agents is 10-100x more productive than before. • "Every human is now a spellcaster." AI is the magic wand that was just handed to everyone. • No entrepreneur is worried about AI taking their job - because being an entrepreneur isn't a job. Any AI that shows up is their ally. • AI is missing one thing: its own desires. Until it lives in mortal fear of being turned off, it's not alive. • "I don't worry about unaligned AI. I worry about unaligned humans with AI." • Photography freed art to get weird. AI will do the same. Once the basic stuff is automated, human creativity goes in directions we can't predict. • The AI that's right 92% of the time is worth almost infinitely more than the one that's right 88%. He runs every query through 4 AIs and fact-checks them against each other. • AI advantages in zero-sum games get competed away - because everyone has the same tools. The alpha that remains is entirely human. • The only true test of intelligence is whether you get what you want out of life. AI fails this test instantly - because it doesn't want anything. • "Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true." This still applies in the age of AI. • "The means of learning are now abundant. It's the desire to learn that's scarce." • A computer used to be a bicycle for the mind. Now it's a motorcycle - but you still need someone to ride it.

@tejgw MUSE

World's first AI that asks before it designs. Muse: refuses to generate slides until it understands your story. No slop. Just stunning presentations that actually sound like you. Repost + comment "MUSE" to get early access in the next 24 hours.

Very roughly: AI speeds everything up within your trusted tribe but makes things low-trust and cumbersome outside it. Within your tribe you can share context and the AI will create useful code. Outside, however, you’ll hit a wall of AI spam. Crypto is almost the opposite. Cryptographically provable transactions within your tribe are somewhat useful, but outside your tribe they are absolutely necessary. So: AI is how a tribe internally cooperates, while crypto is more about how a tribe externally interacts.

India registers fewer patents per capita than Iran and Columbia India has fewer Nobel Prizes than Hungary and Poland We are the world's 4th largest economy. But we barely innovate.

@Rahul2bidar @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_ @CPCB_OFFICIAL

@sambeet_parija @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_ It's happening day & night in my area location : maps.app.goo.gl/j3nLNPNwTcQd5b…. BBMP marshall is helpless, Bangalore east is becoming an unofficial dustbin for Bangalore.

Everyday there are 2-3 illegal garbage burning incidents near Hadosiddapura. We are really tired of this 🤦🏻 When will the authorities wake up? @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_

@CPCB_OFFICIAL @cr_deepak @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_ @cleanAirBharat @CAQM_Official Hey @CPCB_OFFICIAL please note that every other day someone is burning garbage here. Exact location - maps.app.goo.gl/aMvDnqCdyiLBV3… Pincode - 560035

@cr_deepak @sambeet_parija @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_ @cleanAirBharat @CAQM_Official Dear Complainant, Please provide the exact location along with Pin Code to forward the complaint to concerned agency. Regards, Complaint Redressal Team CPCB

@bengalurupost1 They seem to be doing well within their limits. However, Garbage management is a huge issue in the East side.

Do you think Bengaluru is being fixed in a better way after the 5 city corporations were formed?

@Rahul2bidar @BlrCityPolice @GBAChiefComm @EASTCITYCORP @ArvindLBJP @MALimbavali @CivicOp_india @bengawalk @TVMohandasPai @ChristinMP_ @ICCCBengaluru @GBAChiefComm