South Park Commons

Learn more and apply here southparkcommons.com/news/f26-found…

Every decision is a forecast. Better forecasts mean better decisions. @VminVsky and Theo are building the best forecasting agents at @AskPreseen. I spent my career building systems, so I want to be precise about why this is a hard technical problem and not a wrapper. A language model out of the box is a poor forecaster. It reasons from priors frozen at training, inherits the biases of whatever it retrieves, and will happily give you a confident number with nothing underneath it. Getting from there to a calibrated probability means solving several problems at once. You need fresh, structured data about the state of the world, which is an ingestion and normalization problem across thousands of heterogeneous sources, not a search query. You need to force independence between lines of reasoning so errors stay uncorrelated, which Preseen does by running separate agents against primary records and reconciling their estimates the way you would aggregate a panel of analysts. And you need calibration, which is its own discipline: a system that says 80% has to be right about eight times in ten, measured across hundreds of resolved questions. Forecasting is one of the rare AI problems with delayed ground truth. Every question eventually resolves, so every forecast becomes a labeled training example. Preseen has been accumulating that feedback since last fall, on top of a data layer Venia spent months building: crawlers and normalization pipelines across country APIs, satellite imagery, procurement records, and stranger signals like diplomatic flight patterns and international school enrollments. Last December that machinery flagged unusual Russian flight activity before it showed up anywhere humans could see it. A general-purpose model gets none of this for free. The loop has to be built, and it gets stronger with every resolved question. The Preseen bot won the FutureEval tournament last fall, first out of 164. It came third out of 1,283 in the Metaculus Cup this spring, ahead of some of the best human forecasters alive. Then in Q2 it won Market Pulse outright, the first time a bot has ever beaten a field of humans to win a Metaculus tournament, and it won by a wide margin. Theo turned $35 into roughly $1.9 million on Kalshi over seven months. The trend line is very clear that Preseen will soon beat even the best human forecasters. Any decision that matters will need AI forecasting at the table. Everyone wants to know the future. I am very proud to lead Preseen’s seed round at @spc. They’re hiring.

@VminVsky 🔮

Over the past year I've been building out Preseen. We’re focused on building the best AI forecasting agent for decision makers. Every decision relies on a forecast. Too often decisions are poorly made because the underlying forecast is bad. Humans are constrained. But if you can have a system that can forecast anything as well as the best humans, then human decision making will be improved. AIs are reaching the point where they are better than some of the best human forecasters. This is going to change decision making. Preseen will help drive that change.

If you're ready to join the most talent-dense community building at the frontier southparkcommons.com/apply

Our biggest Demo Faire yet. From neuromorphic training chips and generative fashion intelligence to tactile robotics and space cannons. Thanks to everyone who joined us for this sneak peek of the future.

@soleio 🙌🙌

Ambition is social. @SPC looks good on you, kid. Apply by Sunday, Aug 2nd.

Some observations from our Demo Faire yesterday: 1/ There is a tremendous amount of interest from the larger investor community for frontier technology. Robots. Drones. Semiconductors. Bring it all. 2/ The interest in Frontier Tech is legitimately Based. People want 🇺🇸 to win. 3/ The bar for "great" in software has gone up a lot. If you are building something that resembles vertical SaaS or agent-for-X, then you have to show something truly different in terms of vision or on a bonkers ramp. 4/ You should only do early stage investing if you love building the future. That is the real joy of it. It was so cool to see everyone deeply engaging with our founders about what they were building (as opposed to simply asking for up and to the right graphs). 5/ Silicon Valley does best when we understand that it takes a village to build something special for many decades.

Live from San Francisco. SPC Demo Faire.

👀 @spc

🧪 @spc NYC gathered for The Future of Biosecurity moderated by SPC member @AmitRnD with @AkhilaKosaraju (CEO @pharebio) @incredutility (co-head of Intercept, $500M fund to eliminate respiratory illness with @stripe Spencer Weiss (federal health at @PalantirTech)

one week left to apply @spc for f26 founder fellowship

@vatsalbajaj @nickmecklenburg @oneill_c @part_harry_ @baseten 🙌

@nickmecklenburg and I chatted with @oneill_c , Co-Head of Model Training and @part_harry_ , Research Scientist from @baseten at @spc about the future of post-training. To lift the ceiling on context windows, they are researching KV cache compaction, and their unique take on continual learning (that it is a context, not a retraining problem) demonstrates their vision on the future of models. Learn more about Charles' and Harry's views on where post-training and continual learning are headed.

Summer fridays in nyc at @spc with @viamrobotics Robotics hack day!

@AmitRnD @AkhilaKosaraju ✍️

Many people are asking what's biosecurity? @AkhilaKosaraju gave us a great answer at The Future of Biosecurity with SPC NYC.

@vai_viswanathan 🤖🤖🤖

The robots have arrived! See you hackers tomorrow 🦾

Put yourself in the best environment to maximize your ambition.

Apply now: southparkcommons.com/news/f26-found…

If you want to achieve something interesting, surround yourself with the most talented people you can. Because ambition is social. Depth of knowledge compounds. Join the ranks of founders behind companies like @LumaLabsAI, @GammaApp, @baseten, @render, @GoodfireAI, & @tryprofound. Apps for the $1M Founder Fellowship due Aug 2nd.