Stocksailor

@jukan05 @teortaxesTex Yea Chinese absolutely degens

@teortaxesTex Do you know how aggressively Chinese investors are buying 7709, the 2x leveraged long ETF on SK hynix? They’re buying it like crazy.

🔥🔥🔥 CXMT’s STAR Market IPO: There will be no daily price limit for the first five trading days after listing. The usual ±20% limit will apply starting from the sixth trading day. Oh shit, it’s time to witness the full madness of Chinese retail investors.

@RJCcapital @CorgiFunds The 2x fund was launched today so it didn’t include the pre-market movement. $SKHY was up about 10% pre market

$SKHY outperforms the @CorgiFunds 2X ETF today. Can someone explain

@Merridew__ I don’t have IBKR so I can’t buy local shares

@Merridew__ I am long SKHY but with today’s price action I think probably best to trim it and put into DRAM

@Merridew__ do you plan to keep your SKHY short?

@PythiaR @Franny8 why don't you like $MU? lower share of HBM?

Well, I think: 1) DDR is a commodity that will normalize. Can't have 90% margins on that (which are above HBM) forever. Demand destruction in mobile, PC + easier supply additions etc. My working thesis is China will eventually fuck everyone here, but it may take longer (e.g. CXMT & YMTC probably going to be producing for internal Chinese needs for a while yet, not threatening HBM). 2) HBM obvs. eating wafer capacity for #1 which is why that's tight, don't see HBM demand slowing down yet. Don't see the trade ratio getting better either (e.g. MU saying its' going up every gen). I'm less worried on that S/D picture here than DDR. 3) I don't think anything materially changed between June 30th and today, yet the stocks are down 40% in Korea. IMO it's all technical, I bet in part by people converting from the Korea listing to US ADR, but also Samsung pre was "weak" (even though they didn't say why they missed), Korea broker reports on Hynix missing (but Hynix roadshow was so bullish...). So I'm okay buying at Korea prices. I've been buying $DRAM which is mostly Korea, don't really want to own Micron but here we are. But that said I think it's also a tougher road ahead, it'll chop. I'd like to see capital returns, think that would help, but I'm very clear I own it cuz I think there's another 50-100% upside in these over ~18 months, I don't think they're going up 300% again. And sizing wise, I have 15% ASML, 5% ACMR to 5% DRAM (and ~2% RAM, the levered DRAM because I like the occasional degen bet) so it's very small, my main related bet is still semicap.

If the Koreans took Memory too far in one direction, why wouldn’t they take it too far in the other?

@CostaV02 @PythiaR yep, I bought some GDR this morning thinking it was cheaper and should have just bought ADR lol

@stocksailer @PythiaR Ive seen many Americans also buy the German Hynix ADRs which are 1:1 convertible to the Korean common listing, at some cost. Now why 1‘d want to do this is another question altogether since the German listing does follow the Korean listing almost seamlessly as far as I can tell

American investors bidding $SKHY to 40% premium to local while Korean investors send the local down every day because of cascading margin calls kind of tells you what you should be doing ;)

@PythiaR good point, I will look into it- thanks!

@stocksailer ~45% of $DRAM is local shares.

@WaterworldCapi1 @evrgn11112231 @blondesnmoney @jnconkle also the risk of hyperscalers slowing capex?

@evrgn11112231 @blondesnmoney @jnconkle I am still long just cut it hard near the top. I think the bear case is supply coming on from the Chinese short term and then just supply additions in H2:27 after that. Still think it's priced quite cheaply relative to other AI plays where people are paying peak multiples.

Could an SK Hynix bear let me know the bear thesis aside from the risks of Korean retail overleverage / the 7709 HK etf impact on trading. Are you guys in the camp that memory oversupply will happen sooner, AI buildout is unsustainable, what's the thinking here.

@sadvalueinvestr @Merridew__ @ryanbdrm Got it thanks

@stocksailer @Merridew__ @ryanbdrm Yes but the question is what makes the spread collapse

@blondesnmoney The only real risk is hyperscalers slowing capex. Everything else is noise.

@sadvalueinvestr @Merridew__ @ryanbdrm can't funds just short ADR?

@stocksailer @Merridew__ @ryanbdrm Because there’s no way to collapse it. Can go to 60% for all we know

@escvel0city11 @Merridew__ Short ADR?

@Merridew__ Been thinking about this a lot

@blondesnmoney You bid HY9H didn’t you?

@WaterworldCapi1 @viggy_krishnan @Kente_Clarke @WaterworldCapi1 at what price would you consider getting back in? Another 10% down on SMH?

@viggy_krishnan @Kente_Clarke I'm just encouraging people to take a chill pill. Rushing out to buy after a 2 week correction after the move we just had seems unnecessary at best.

There are now some amazing opportunities in semis to buy into YE. Several names that I see 100% or higher upside. Use this time to sharpen your pencils, pick your best trades, and how to structure them. Be greedy when others are fearful.

@blondesnmoney You still long memory?

@blondesnmoney @HDP1995 Bottom

I will say considering how much Asians love their big orders around specific numbers it would be nice to see Hynix hold the 2m mark here

@WaterworldCapi1 The situation seems to be resolved? buying here?

@stocksailer EM&E deal drama.