Theo

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Theo

@theoelections

astrophysics/polisci - data science - opinions are my own

United States Katılım Ekim 2025
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Theo
Theo@theoelections·
I have an important announcement to share today. I am joining @VoteHub for the 2026 election cycle, where I will be contributing toto primary and general election coverage across the country. I am very excited for the opportunity, and I am grateful to @GarrettHerrin and the team for bringing me on ahead of a cycle this consequential. My work will focus on primary elections summer early on, and on general election races up and down the ballot into November. I am looking forward to getting started, and I will have a lot more to share in the weeks ahead. Thank you to everyone who has supported the work so far.
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Theo@theoelections·
Here is how the precinct results look like for Louisiana Senate primary.
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Ryan McComb
Ryan McComb@ryanjmccomb·
@The0_o7 could i see them if you make n=30 for knn? im just wondering, if thats hella work then foget it, just interested
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Theo
Theo@theoelections·
Here are two charts using the precinct results. Left one has the three way race shown using income and age. Right one has Letlow against everyone else. While we cannot see a clear pattern for three way race. Letlow's coalition is either low-income or young.
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Theo@theoelections

Here is the precinct map of all three candidates. Cassidy's support clusters in the New Orleans metro and almost nowhere else. Fleming dominates the western half of the state. Letlow's coalition spans every region — the only one of the three with a true statewide map.

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Theo
Theo@theoelections·
@ryanjmccomb Tried to find a gif but then I made this in less than 5 minutes, thanks to Photoshop.
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Theo@theoelections·
Here is the precinct map of all three candidates. Cassidy's support clusters in the New Orleans metro and almost nowhere else. Fleming dominates the western half of the state. Letlow's coalition spans every region — the only one of the three with a true statewide map.
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Theo@theoelections·
@Morris_Fan_ He is aligned more closely to MAGA than Cornyn.
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Theo@theoelections·
Lousiana Senate Primary provided a lot of info about the Republican Primary electorate. Most undecided voters going to the ballots, made their decision based on Trump's endorsement. This puts both Cornyn and Massie in a difficult place against their Trump endorsed candidates.
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Theo@theoelections·
@ManMitchLegend Republicans holding White House causes Democrats to have an extremely high enthusiasm. Also redistricting efforts may also have an effect for turning out.
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Mitch
Mitch@ManMitchLegend·
@The0_o7 That is wildly high for Louisiana, what does this entail for the national environment?
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Theo
Theo@theoelections·
Almost done counting. Cassidy has become the first incumbent Republican Senator to lose a primary since 2012. This raises questions for both John Cornyn and Thomas Massie as the two Pro-Trump candidates get almost 75% of the votes in Louisiana Senate Primary.
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Theo@theoelections

I am guessing, there is a slight problem with AP's turnout estimate. Some counties are unusually low, so I am using DDHQ from now on. We are almost done with the counting though. All five of the amendments failed, Cassidy did not qualify for the runoff. Turnout around 52R-48D

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Theo@theoelections·
I am guessing, there is a slight problem with AP's turnout estimate. Some counties are unusually low, so I am using DDHQ from now on. We are almost done with the counting though. All five of the amendments failed, Cassidy did not qualify for the runoff. Turnout around 52R-48D
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Theo@theoelections

Election Day votes exceeded expectations for Republicans, they now have R+10 lead in turnout. Despite the Republican turnout, all the Republican backed amendments are failing.

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Theo@theoelections·
@charliemansell My initial guess was 51-39, after running the numbers I got 45-40
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Charlie Mansell
Charlie Mansell@charliemansell·
@The0_o7 1. Impressive. At this stage I am only looking at potential (eg max) Lab vote size based on any Reform "ceiling" (Runcorn 39%, Caephilly 36%, Gortton/Denton 29%. My current "potential" Lab (max) result was: Lab 50%, Ref 38%, Con 5%, Gre 3%, LD 2%, Oth 2%, but Ref may be higher?
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