Tommy Bionic

$ORCL Guggenheim We hosted Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson and SVP, Investor Relations Ken Bond for meetings with investors. The conversation was mostly focused around questions on the AI infrastructure build-out, specifically data center delays, contract structures, and the recent credit downgrade. Ms. Maxson's message was consistent that the build-out is at a materially de-risked stage, reported delays are neither systemic across Oracle’s many data center sites nor financially meaningful, the cost-plus structure of Oracle's contracts insulates margin dollars from cost inflation, and there's a firm commitment to its investment-grade credit rating. We continue to rate Oracle a Buy with a $400 PT and view ORCL as a decade stock.

Trump outmaneuvered the best thinkers at the Pentagon. They told him that starting this conflict with Iran would send oil skyrocketing to $150 to $350 a barrel, which would collapse the global economy. Their advice? Keep kicking the can down the road like every administration before him. Trump’s response? "Watch me." Instead of following their traditional playbook, he fought it differently, outmaneuvered the regime, and kept the Strait of Hormuz open, defying every expert prediction. He proved the establishment dead wrong on keeping the choke point open... but why didn't he do this during his last term? What did Trump 47 see that 45, and everyone else in Washington, was blind to?

🦔A Nikkei investigation found that Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle have $1.65 trillion in debt that doesn't appear on their balance sheets, more than the $1.35 trillion they officially report. These are GPU contracts, data center leases, and joint ventures that don't count as debt under accounting rules until the facilities go live. Meta's hidden debt is $420 billion, triple its reported debt. Oracle's grew 30-fold in four years. All five declined to comment. My Take Nikkei examined the actual filings and put a number on something the BIS already flagged as "shadow borrowing" back in March. These companies owe more off their balance sheets than on them, and the accounting rules let them keep it that way until the data centers go live. That's legal, but it means investors looking at quarterly earnings this week are seeing less than half the picture. Four of these five report earnings in the next two weeks. The reported debt will look manageable. The $1.65 trillion in footnotes won't make the headlines. But when those data centers start operating, the leases hit the books all at once. If AI demand comes in below projections, those facilities get marked down and the losses land on the investors and insurance policyholders who funded the construction through private credit and project bonds without realizing how much total exposure they were carrying. Hedgie🤗

this is the official CDC website btw we're cooked