Rami
3.5K posts


@dethective Yeah it's all one big trap to get as many people joining to be exit liquidity. People get blind by hype and follow the herd. Don't trust hype people, since it can be easily manufactured these days.
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✨ A dream I had finally came true: I can now chat directly with my sites to build any feature or fix any bug just via Telegram
I've been playing with OpenClaw for 3 weeks now and it's great but I was always too scared to run it on any production server
And I was right a bit as @marckohlbrugge was able to hack it by social engineering and acting as if it was me, and with enough tries it believed him, and was able to modify the server, change SSH keys etc. of course I had it isolated properly on its own VPS and it didn't touch anything sensitive (as it should!)
Marc then reported that bug to @steipete who patched it fast
But I wanted to try something more basic and simple, and I think maybe more secure: to just connect Claude Code on my server to Telegram which would be hard locked to only messages from me
So I installed claude-code-telegram by @RichardAtCT on the server and run it as a system daemon and it works really well
The cool thing is that I was already using Telegram for server errors like this:
> Photo AI - ❌ Random credits giveaway failed (Attempt 30/30) with an exception: SQLSTATE[HY000]: General error: 5 database is locked
So now I can just reply, "Ok fix this", and Claude Code on the server in production will try (and probably succeed) in fixing it
In the video below I asked it to make show [🌳 Parks ] on the map by default on load, it did that, then I reloaded the page and it instantly worked
One thing it still needs is sending actual messages while it's doing stuff which OpenClaw does really well, it's annoying to just wait while it says "Working..." but that's probably next
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Rami retweetledi

@VitalikButerin Brainstorm all you want. But prediction markets are being rapidly banned, blocked by governments and cease and desist letters are all over the board. They see it as illegal gambling. 4 new lines of code won't change that.
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Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop.
I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)
Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money.
But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question:
1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things
2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know.
3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk.
(1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop.
(2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high.
This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk.
Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58.
Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether?
Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses".
Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability.
Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate.
Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.
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@milesdeutscher I've seen this video over 10 times right now. If it's real? Who knows.
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this is theft
dutch friends, if you need help relocating, DMs are open
don't let idiots steal from you just cause they wear suits
Crypto Rover@cryptorover
💥BREAKING: 🇳🇱 36% unrealized gains tax just passed in the Dutch House of Representatives.
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@SolanaSensei @solana @Polymarket @Kalshi @nubisdotfun of course. Built for the user and super easy to use.
Thank you for recognizing the predictions market narrative 🔮
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@heymilady Yeah but it will also dump 100 times quicker than the real coin. He'll find out!
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Butt performs better than Bit
skum@skumWgmi
Told a buddy of mine to invest in Bitcoin and bro sent me this
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@angrycryptoshow Looks like the bear market is effecting everyone of us now 🥲
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BREAKING: #Cardano $ADA Founder Charles Hoskinson announces "launch date for $USDCx, end of February. We've done some amazing engineering to have a beautiful UX. You can go straight from any wallet to Coinbase, or Binance, and back, and there's instant convertibility to $USDC."
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@CryptoZin Well I love my job lol, but I can understand not everyone feels the same about theirs.
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@durov The update is fantastic! At @nubisdotfun we're building the first Prediction Markets platform that works fully inside Telegram, and this update makes our product stand out even more. Thank you very much to everyone who made this update possible!
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@playmatejaylene Maybe you were smart enough to play the dumbest person. And actually made some money out of it and outsmarted everyone else.
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@AltcoinDaily Swipe to the right -5 ADA , that's gonna be an expensive experience 🥲
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