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Teen wRC+ leaders = who's who of @StatlineScout studs.
1. Jackson Holliday (168)
2. Junior Caminero
3. Thayron Liranzo
4. Samuel Basallo 🎥👇
5. Xavier Isaac
6. Jett Williams
7. Roman Anthony
8. Termarr Johnson (137)
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Nostra Thomas
10.2K posts
Nostra Thomas
@TomTrudeau
Projections truther. Co-owner @StatlineScout Former @MLB @NBA & @Mojo “One of those analytical model is god never seen dudes actually play before type guy”
New York, NY Katılım Şubat 2009
1.2K Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
Nostra Thomas retweetledi
The current healthy OOPSY peak top 10 pitching prospects!
1. Trey Yesavage🎦
2. Jonah Tong
3. Grant Taylor
4. Payton Tolle
5. Connelly Early
6. Jarlin Susana
7. Tanner Franklin 👀
8. Bubba Chandler
9. Noah Schultz
10. Ben Hess
Join STS for projections and rankings of all 3,237!
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@advancedstats23 rada’s peak projection is for a 107 wrc+ which is an everyday player paired with elite CF defense. And a fantasy starter with his wheels . HR projection is 10 / 600 PA.
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@TomTrudeau Rada has gotten lot of hype and i am just struggling to see how truly 20 grade power works
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Would greatly take the under on pretty much all these prospects x.com/TomTrudeau/sta…
Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
The addition of defensive grades and WAR to @StatlineScout model is making prospecting easier than ever. Nelson Rada, Luis Lara, William Bergola Jr., Aron Estrada, Hao-Yu Lee among the (badly) underrated upper minors prospects with 3+ peak WAR projections vs industry ranks.
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The addition of defensive grades and WAR to @StatlineScout model is making prospecting easier than ever.
Nelson Rada, Luis Lara, William Bergola Jr., Aron Estrada, Hao-Yu Lee among the (badly) underrated upper minors prospects with 3+ peak WAR projections vs industry ranks.
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Nostra Thomas retweetledi
The top 10 prospects by @ProspectLarceny's Formulated Ranking!
1. Sam Antonacci 🎦
2. James Tibbs III
3. Abimelec Ortiz
4. Jimmy Crooks
5. Konnor Griffin
6. William Bergolla, Jr.
7. Luis Lara
8. Esmerlyn Valdez
9. Rece Hinds
10. Max Clark
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@BaseballATeam It is the beginning, but it's increasingly close to the end.
The @StatlineScout model now captures statistically meaningful traits proxies and advanced stats like ev90, bat speed, barrel rate, stuff +, and incorporates @fangraphs defensive grades into projecting prospect WAR.
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@TomTrudeau That said, a model is a tool for narrowing the pool of players into digestible pieces. You treat the model as the end of the analytic process. It's the beginning.
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I'm still chuckling at the ongoing John Gil hype. It's bled over into fantasy leagues now.
With all the data access we have now, it's amazing how gullible we remain.
(not saying I'm immune, though I'm not falling for a future up-and-down utility guy from a busted system)
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@BaseballATeam x.com/TomTrudeau/sta…
Apparently not. It has helped identify stud prospects faster than anywhere else. It’s not a weakness that it also helps find role players with a chance that other sources think have 0 chance.
Nostra Thomas@TomTrudeau
Churn the back of your MiLB roster with these bats projected by @StatlineScout as top 25 by wRC+ Kevin McGonigle 📸 (16% rostered in @Fantrax ) Edgar Quero (16%) Ben Rice (16%) Moises Ballesteros (15%) Luke Keaschall (16%) Tre Morgan (11%) C.J. Kayfus (9%)
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@TomTrudeau lol. You do remember who I am, right? You've told me more than enough for me to know the strengths and weaknesses inside and out.
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@yakyucosmo @grok contextualize Miyagi’s baseball savant data to compare to MLB pitchers
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@BaseballATeam @rossjensen @StatlineScout There's a peak per PA fantasy rank and WAR rank. Nacho's per PA fantasy value is so-so, but his WAR projection indicates he is underrated and could be a regular in a few years.
(For someone who has yet to ever subscribe to StS you have a lot of certainty about the model!)
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@rossjensen @TomTrudeau @StatlineScout Tom's the one who brought STS into the conversation (and tagged your accounts). All I pointed out is that the model is good at flagging irl role players who lack fantasy asset value.
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@BaseballATeam @StatlineScout Nacho still projects as a solid regular at peak. He's a baby by MLB'er standards.
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@TomTrudeau @StatlineScout Same. Exact same. 110 max EV and STS thought he could hit.
Gil might be another Nacho or Meidroth, but there's no point stashing those guys for their prospect years in most formats (including ours).
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Nostra Thomas retweetledi
OOPSY 2026 Top 100 Prospects blogs.fangraphs.com/oopsy-2026-top…
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Nostra Thomas retweetledi
Prospect of the Day!
Nelson Rada
LAA, AAA, CF | Rank: #68
Projection: 118 wRC+, 9 HR, 42 SB
Rada was a @StatlineScout favorite back in 2023 and early in 2024 in large part because he has adequately managed to handle very advanced assignments at young ages. His prospect stock hit a snag in 2024 as he only hit .234. Granted he was just 18 years old playing in Double-A as well. In 2025 Rada returned to that level, and it seems a year of maturity made a world of different. Rada did what Rada does best > get on base and swipe extra bags. He was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A and continued to improve as the season wore on.
He's really going to need to lean into those skills, as it's becoming more and more apparent that his power is capped. Fortunately I think Rada is up to the task, and he is likely to make his MLB debut in 2026 at just 20 years old. This future Angels leadoff hitter is one of the most underrated prospects in the game!
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Nostra Thomas retweetledi
Holy shit. I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video… everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again. ❤️ 🤖 wsj.com/tech/ai/google…
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@grok @KevinCole___ Any research on predictive power of pff grades for qbs or other positions?
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Year-over-year correlations for QB stats (from sites like SumerSports, nfelo, Sharp Football): EPA/play ~0.4-0.6 (highest stability), ANY/A ~0.3-0.5, passer rating ~0.3-0.5. EPA edges out for predictiveness due to situational context.
For longevity/retaining roles, early EPA/play >0, win %, draft position, and adjusted yards/attempt are key predictors per 4for4 and AtoZ Sports analyses. Team support matters too.
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2025 quarterback efficiency (EPA/play), min 150 dropbacks, through SNF
1) Sam Darnold +0.35 📈
2) Jordan Love +0.34
3) Drake Maye +0.31 📉
4) Josh Allen +0.28 📈
5) Dak Prescott +0.26
6) Patrick Mahomes +0.25 📉
7) Daniel Jones +0.25 📉
8) Matthew Stafford +0.23 📈
9) Jared Goff +0.20 📉
10) Jalen Hurts +0.19
11) Jaxson Dart +0.17
12) Justin Herbert +0.16
13) Baker Mayfield +0.15
14) C.J. Stroud +0.14
15) Aaron Rodgers +0.13
16) Mac Jones +0.12 📈
17) Bo Nix +0.11
18) Kyler Murray +0.10
19) Caleb Williams +0.09 📈
20) Jayden Daniels +0.08
21) Michael Penix Jr. +0.07
22) Carson Wentz +0.06
23) Trevor Lawrence +0.01
24) Justin Fields +0.01
25) Tua Tagovailoa 0.00
26) Bryce Young -0.01
27) Geno Smith -0.01 📈
28) Spencer Rattler -0.01
29) Joe Flacco -0.01
30) Dillon Gabriel -0.13
31) Cam Ward -0.20
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@grok @KevinCole___ What are the relative year over year correlations for QB stats including EPA/play? what stats are the most predictive of longevity and retaining starting roles?
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Yes, analyses from SumerSports and stats sites show EPA/play is generally more predictive of future QB production than ANY/A or passer rating, with stronger year-over-year correlations (~0.6 for EPA). Passer rating holds up comparably in stability, but EPA better accounts for situational impact. Team factors influence all.
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More evidence for the sensitive period hypothesis: Boys are especially "imprinted" by the teams that won championships when boys were 8-12.
Their brains are soaking up culture and values, weighted by prestige. Don't let social media choose who imprints and guides their brain dev
Jay Van Bavel, PhD@jayvanbavel
Whoever wins the #worldseries tonight is going to make a legion of fans for life. The psychology of fans and how people identify with sports teams is fascinating. Like goslings, young boys imprint on the team that wins when they are young. A championship leads kids to identify with a team for life--especially boys aged 8-12. This is when I became a Toronto @BlueJays fan for life and it has been followed by 32 years of suffering. The psychology of female fans is slightly different. They can identify with a team at any age. But one way or the other, tonight will create an entirely new generation of fans. nytimes.com/2014/04/20/opi…
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@Ihartitz I like Cool shit. Would be neat if clever fantasy analysts like you guided on signal vs noise.
Theres a white space for analysts who take the extra step on “is this predictive or descriptive?” So we can make better decisions.
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"Cool shit" is a stat I just made up that is an RB's total touchdowns, explosive plays and tackles avoided divided by their carries and targets.
Highest percentage of cool shit per opportunity:
1. Jonathan Taylor (45%)
2. Bijan Robinson (44%)
3. Kenneth Walker (41%)
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@NBAonPrime Shoutout NBA on Prime producers to try and provide X & o’s insight vs lowest common denominator talking head debates.
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