Gumby

Iran and Oman will charge fees to ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz under the current ceasefire plan-AP

Warren Buffett on what caused the 2008 Global Financial Crisis "You cannot stand to see your neighbor getting rich. You know you are smarter than he is. And he is doing these things and getting rich. Your spouse is unhappy with you because you aren't doing it. And pretty soon, you start doing it. And so you get the three Is: the innovators, the imitators, and the idiots."

My best guess for tonight. This is not a direct address regarding the war, its about shifting blame and path towards NATO. The war commentary will go something like this: We have achieved all our goals and are making sure they can't rebuild their arsenal before we pull out. ->(goals changed, Rubio and White House just posted updated goals so they can create new narrative) It will take another 2-3 weeks, ceasefire and peace are being discussed. ->(It was a weekend, then short week, then became 4w, which is the end of the week, so we are looking at double almost already, ceasefire and peace talk is to reassure markets). The real goal will be to torch NATO, which is why so many leaders came out yesterday and today to announce tough times are coming, they got the heads up before trump talks. ->Also look at last comments on Ukraine funding in regards to weapons sent by the US here, pressuring from both ends. The goal will be to push the blame and anger of the war towards them and try to pressure them into taking care of it so the US can pull back. This also explains the open letter by Iran to allies and US, saying they are being defensive, want peace with Europe and alike. The game being played is opening up possibilities for US to be able to maneuver. After tonight, should I be right, they will have the options to: 1. Blame it on Israel ->Israeli attacks despite US saying no and intel being wrong. 2. Blame it on Europe/NATO ->We dont need this oil, Europe does and they wont help, its their problem now. 3. Blame it on Iran ->We seeked peace but they did not want to, so we will have to escalate and send troops to finish it off. Nothing changed about the war, but they are building narratives to allow to move. Before this week the pressure was mounting, including the massive no kings protest. The work being done now helps markets to breathe and shifts the blame outwards, letting US choose its path. Overall the good thing is that its not a continuous escalation cycle, the US will be able to pull out. It's not the peace we want, but it somewhat decreases the damage of the blended potential paths into this next period. Europe and Asia are running out of time with no more energy arriving, it is shifting the time burden from the US to NATO right as the US wants to pull out.

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.