Adam Argo

2.1K posts

Adam Argo

@under_____taker

Colorado, USA Katılım Şubat 2021

337 Takip Edilen454 Takipçiler

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·6 Ara

Updated my 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment using today's quote. Assumptions in Base case: -$BTC CAGR at 25% -MSTR pinned at 1.15x mNAV -Preferred demand flat -Prefs yield 11% -USD reserve 18 coverage months 10-year Base case output: BTC: ~$832K (~9.3x | 25% CAGR) MSTR: ~$1,876 (~10.5x | 26.5% CAGR) Model updates: -Added STRK converts, options outstanding, and RSU/PSU unvested to terminal basic share count Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome. H/T for reviews: @ZynxBTC | @BTCoptioneer Model URL: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Adam Argo@under_____taker

In the spirit of @BTCoptioneer's framework, I am sharing my own 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment. Assumptions in Base case: -$BTC CAGR at 25% -MSTR pinned at 1.15× mNAV -Preferred demand flat -Prefs yield 11% 10-year Base case output: BTC: ~$853K (~9x | 25% CAGR) MSTR: ~$2,196 (~12x | 28% CAGR) Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome. URL: #gid=678641618" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·3h

@FrankAFetter

GIF

QME

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Frank@FrankAFetter·3h

This too shall pass. Steady lads. $BTC

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·3h

@RobynHD Thanks for the share.

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RobynHD@RobynHD·3h

53 Tage nach dem Drop unter die 100WMA bewegt sich Bitcoin aktuell ca. 7% über dem historischen Bear-Median. Der Median-Pfad würde kurzfristig einen Rücksetzer von etwa 19% Richtung 55.9K implizieren. Was heißt das? Bitcoin performt aktuell stärker als typische Bear-Zyklen und hält sich über dem Durchschnitt. Volatilität bleibt normal in dieser Phase. Kurz gesagt: Struktur intakt, Abweichung nach oben bullish, aber Rücksetzer jederzeit möglich. Willkommen im Markt.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·4h

@_Adrian You can have whatever you like.

GIF

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Adrian Morris@_Adrian·5h

Could $MSTR issue $STRC Series A | B someday? I'm not even sure if this is possible but I wonder...

Adrian Morris@_Adrian

In theory, this is feasible. Maybe a $STRC Series A | B where they can issue a new Series B with a staggered | declining dividend while grandfathering the original Series A at the higher rate forever. I think there is precedent where Banks and REITs have done this. @Strategy already has multiple preferred offerings, so layering another one should be straightforward. This would be a long way away since they just launched $STRC in 25'. But would fit the $BTC financialization playbook to date.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·9h

@BTCoptioneer @jonbrooks No contest from me on the worrying part.

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BTC Optioneer@BTCoptioneer·9h

@under_____taker @jonbrooks It’s actually quite beautiful and liberating. Just be present and enjoy and stop worrying about whether others choose to reproduce or not.

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Jon Brooks@jonbrooks·17h

My friends in their 30s are deciding not to have kids They’re saying two things: They don’t have the money It’s inconvenient to their lifestyle This is not good. What do we do?

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·10h

@nsquaredvalue @BitcoinNewsCom This is the way.

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Timothy Peterson@nsquaredvalue·14h

@BitcoinNewsCom A better way to look at it is bitcoin held by etfs. That value was declining since September, but rebounded in late February.

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Bitcoin News@BitcoinNewsCom·14h

Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have declined by $15B since early January.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·10h

@BTCoptioneer @jonbrooks Dark

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BTC Optioneer@BTCoptioneer·15h

@jonbrooks On a grand scheme of things, humanity is temporary and it does not matter whether people have kids or not.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·11h

The bottom range is the 2018-19 price path, which began recovering out of the yellow "wait period" on April 1st. The top range is the 2022-23 price path, which began recovering out the yellow "wait period" on March 11th. The average price path of the two bears here indicates June 30th price of $176K. $BTC

Timothy Peterson@nsquaredvalue

Bitcoin

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·11h

@Z06Z07 Good chart, @Z06Z07.

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Grain of Salt@Z06Z07·11h

Strategy acquiring Bitcoin by quarter by since the start. $MSTR and $STRC $STRK $STRD $STRF acquire more Bitcoin as the price is HIGHER.

Grain of Salt@Z06Z07

Currently 2nd best Quarter for @Strategy in Bitcoin accumulation. Need 11.5K for 100K. Strategy buys the most Bitcoin when the price is high. I can't wait for the next bull market. @saylor @phongle

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·11h

$MSTR continues to outperform the 2x Bitcoin ETF $BITX.

Adam Argo@under_____taker

$MSTR continues to outperform the 2x Bitcoin ETF $BITX.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·11h

$MSTR BTC Reserve Unrealized Gain (Loss) Update: 3/19/2026 BTC Price$69,476 - Avg Cost$75,743 = Unit Gain (Loss)($6,267) x BTC₿ 761,068 = Gain (Loss) ($B)($4.8) Gain (Loss) %-8.3%

Adam Argo@under_____taker

$MSTR BTC Reserve Unrealized Gain (Loss) Update: 3/16/2026 Several large $BTC purchases at ~$70K cost basis plus $BTC price action is improving this metric. $1.7B unrealized loss on $57.6B invested is a ~3% unrealized loss. BTC Price$73,506 - Avg Cost$75,743 = Unit Gain (Loss)($2,237) x BTC₿ 761,068 = Gain (Loss) ($B)($1.7) Gain (Loss) %-3.0%

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·11h

Update: 53 days after dropping below the 100WMA, $BTC is in the range, 7% above the median bear path. The median path would look like a 19% drop from here down to $55.9K seven days from now.

Adam Argo@under_____taker

Update: 50 days after dropping below the 100WMA, $BTC is in the range, 21% above the median bear path.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·12h

$BTC / $GLD | Seven months of red (🔴) from August through Februray will conclude with March being green (🟢).

James Van Straten@btcjvs

If it’s not absolutely clear, Bitcoin has bottomed versus gold.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·13h

Ranking BTCTC YTD Growth of $1 3/19/26 Update: BTC -22% Smarter Web 🇬🇧 0% Strategy 🇺🇸 -14% BTC Digital 🇨🇦 -21% Others range from -23% to -45% $MSTR steady at #2. $ALCPB fell 4 spots to #7. $MTPLF down to #5. $BTCT, $BRR, and $XXI moving up. #1 $TSWCF ↔️ #2 $MSTR ↔️ #3 $BTCT 🔼2️⃣ #4 $BRR 🔼2️⃣ #5 $MTPLF 🔽1️⃣ #6 $XXI 🔼1️⃣ #7 $ALCPB 🔽4️⃣ #8 $NAKA ↔️ #9 $ASST ↔️ #10 $ABTC ↔️

Adam Argo@under_____taker

Ranking BTCTC YTD Growth of $1 3/17/26 Update: $MSTR is now in the #2 spot, making moves today. BTC -16% Smarter Web 🇬🇧 -2% Strategy 🇺🇸 -5% Capital B 🇫🇷 -7% Others range from -8% to -42% #1 $TSWCF ↔️ #2 $MSTR 🔼1️⃣ #3 $ALCPB 🔽1️⃣ #4 $MTPLF ↔️ #5 $BTCT 🔼1️⃣ #6 $BRR 🔽1️⃣ #7 $XXI ↔️ #8 $NAKA ↔️ #9 $ASST ↔️ #10 $ABTC ↔️

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·13h

$BTC (🟠) lost the 50DMA (🔵)

Adam Argo@under_____taker

$BTC (🟠) regained the 50DMA (🔵)

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·13h

Confirmed ☑️ | $MSTR

Grain of Salt@Z06Z07

@Brennan_BTC22 @Strategy @saylor @phongle Strategy is having its 2nd best quarter for buying Bitcoin at 88,568 and 42% (37,376) coming from $STRC. This is currently in a ₿ bear market ~50% below ATH. Facts look pretty great.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·15h

Nice

Mr. Anderson@Truecrypto

A poetic moment in Bitcoin’s story: we’re back at $69k. Think about how iconic this level really is. For years it wasn’t just a price, it was the ceiling. The number everyone memorized. The line the entire market dreamed about, joked about, argued about, and obsessed over. We hit it in 2021… failed… and then spent three long years wondering if we’d ever see it again. When we finally retested it, it took another full year of fighting, shaking out tourists, and testing conviction before Bitcoin actually broke through. Now,we return to $69k from above, not as an unreachable fantasy, but as a level we treat like any other point on the chart. That’s what makes this so poetic. A price that once represented the absolute peak of imagination… is now just a waypoint on a much larger journey. If you needed a reminder of how far this asset has come and how wild this space truly is, this is it. What a time to be alive.

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·16h

@disclosetv You either include the zeros or you say billion. Right now I’m reading “200 billion” billion USD. That’s 200 quintillion.

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Disclose.tv@disclosetv·1d

JUST IN - Pentagon asks the White House to approve a more ⁠than $200,000,000,000 billion request to the U.S. Congress to fund the Iran War — WaPo

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Adam Argo@under_____taker·16h

@CryptoJelleNL The on-chain data below here is different than last time.

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Jelle@CryptoJelleNL·19h

Less than a day later, and $BTC has locked in the deviation above the highs - just like it did in January. Hold current area, and bulls can hope for a swift reclaim. Lose that area too, and the downside liquidity will start pulling price down further. We'll know soon enough.

Jelle@CryptoJelleNL

Markets move on liquidity. Adding to what @KillaXBT shared earlier, pay attention to where the untapped liquidity is at the moment. $BTC hovering below weekly resistance; FOMC later today - I think caution pays here.

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