Monolith Investments

It's happening!

@ShowerCapAM Where dos TerraCom get its diesel

3 tankers with petroleum products unloading in Cairns Wharf in the next 7 days. $EQR.AX

QQQ -2% Portfolio +1% Must be doing something right

if gold falls, you guys might want to hold on

IRAN HARDLINERS RAMP UP CALLS FOR A NUCLEAR BOMB IN DEFIANCE OF ESCALATING US-ISRAELI ATTACK: RTRS "With the Revolutionary Guards now dominant following the killing of veteran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the war on February 28, hardline views on Iran's nuclear approach are in the ascendant, two senior Iranian sources said." "There was no plan to change Iran's nuclear doctrine yet and Iran had not decided to seek a bomb, one of the sources said, but serious voices in the establishment were questioning the existing policy and demanding a change."

@HayekAndKeynes The US is contemplating troops on the ground, asking $200bn of additional funding for a war that is deeply unpopular. Those are all significant consequences for the US and Trump

@variance_swap Of course I understand that, but what you’re missing is Iran is not attacking the US, they’re trying to hold the world hostage in order to get the US to stop. That’s not a sustainable strategy.

Trump is re-escalating into the weekend Time for him to decide: -A huge attack to set in motion a series of mutually destructive infrastructure attacks and prolong the war. Economic consequences are well documented. - Art of the deal. Mission accomplished. Go home. Let international pressure on Iran force the strait to reopen My view is 25% odds they attack (take Kharg, secure the Strait, continue going after military infra, and nuke capacity), 75% they continue to de-escalate. More broadly this is really about the future of warfare and not about Iran specifically. Even if you destroy all of the conventional military assets (largely done) one trainload of Temu drone supplies from China is enough to allow them to continue to harass shipping and inflict real hits to nearby Gulf energy infrastructure. They can build these things in any sewer or house. They will be as hard to eradicate as an invasive weed. We can eventually develop tools to defend against these things (vs eliminating them), but trial and error in live combat is not the best way. Ultimately, other than cyber attacks and domestic terrorism, Iran has no real way to hurt the US other than inflicting pain on the entire world by depriving them of energy. They can also they can do a lot of damage to innocent 3rd parties in the gulf (though I actually believe that destroying infrastructure is actually is a long-term benefit for the US [we are an energy superpower now)]but attacking would be a deeply flawed decision). With that said I was completely wrong last year when I said they would attack and expected it to be catastrophic. They have done a great job of neutering conventional military assets. Outside of Iran disrupting Hormuz there have been limited consequences. It’s obviously possible I’m being a worrywart and that intelligence is much stronger that we thought possible (apparently they were using street cams to target key players in the regime with drones). Anyway, just a reminder that this is a very fluid situation, don’t hang on to your priors for long, don’t take a ton of risk, and to pivot with changes as they happen.

FAFO

@BeenThereCap Who is Jevons ?

The Jevons paradox actually is a thing. I am seriously considering buying a bit more $MU in the mid-$300s if it falls any more than this. My current cost basis is $17. If you don't know why I'm mentioning the Jevons paradox today, don't worry about it, and don't trade $MU. Ever.

@BeenThereCap x.com/oilcfd/status/…

For oil and financial markets, this is the biggest news since the Monday morning Trump post. But I still expect a lot of kinetic action this weekend.

@Ross__Hendricks Why haven't prices responded more yet? I keep hearing there is a 'wheat glut'

No one owns enough wheat

@Zerosumgame33 Nice!

$PROP Boom. Step 1 complete. Hudson Bay agrees to play ball w/ Series F pref extension. April 7th shot clock. Now working on a deal. Likely debt & a little equity. Should be resolved swiftly after the 10K is filed 3/31, imo. Revealed more on April 1st Q4 call. To me this signals mgmt has line of sight to a debt package.

And here we can see again the Dubai swap pricing mechanism doing it's thing. These futures are pricing on the back of Dubai April Swap, which still doesn’t have any physical cargo pricing it...

@broheim777 Big volume shelf at $3.6-$3.80... blue skies above $4

$LODE 😳oh my

@BeenThereCap Going home with the Iranian regime and their missile capabilities intact means reduced oil flows for longer

Even I question the wisdom of front-month oil at only $90 today, given the set-up for the next week. High uncertainty; odds of escalation > odds of a deal. I can square it if traders see high odds that further escalation would be followed quickly by "declare victory & go home"

Well well well

@WarrenPies @TheStalwart @JavierBlas That was not the expectation. No one really expects sanctions to work, let alone 3-4mm b/d being offline indefinitely. The current situation is far worse, it's not sanctions that can easily be skirted, but damage to physical infrastructure.

@TheStalwart @JavierBlas The big difference between the current crisis and 2022 is duration. Back then, there was an expectation that sanctions would blow a 3-4 MMBpd hole in the mkt INDEFINITELY. This time, the fear is a more significant deficit that is temporary - 10 MMBpd deficit lasting 1 month.

Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the highs of the month, but, as @JavierBlas pointed out, far below the 2022 highs?

IRAN HAS BOTH THE WILL AND ABILITY TO CREATE TO CREATE A CREDIBLE THREAT AGAINST THE BAB EL-MANDIB STRAIT; IF THE US WANTS TO THINK OF SOLUTION TO HORMUZ WITH STUPID ACTIONS, THEY SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT TO ADD ANOTHER STRAIT TO THEIR PROBLEMS: TASNIM

HOUTHI SPOKESMAN, YAHYA SAREE: THE SITUATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL NOT RETURN TO WHAT IT WAS BEFORE. WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS WHAT WE DECIDE. WE HAVE RE-ENACTED THE RULES OF PASSAGE IN A FIRM AND STRONG MANNER. THE LAW IS CLEAR, TRANSPARENT, AND UNDERSTANDABLE: YOU AND EVERYONE CONNECTED TO YOU HAVE NO RIGHT OF PASSAGE. THE DECISION TO GRANT PASSAGE IS OURS. - N12 SOURCES

The most important thing is identifying the 2-3 key drivers that are going to move the stock, and then making sure you have a 80-90% confidence level on how those drivers will play out. If your stock needs 10 different things to happen, it's not a good thesis.