Tom Warner

Another closer video of possible strike on Bila Tserkva shows the six individual warheads from each of the six warhead vehicles - definitely characteristic of an Oreshnik missile.

If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important we get this right.

Bye-bye 👋

I don’t often agree with Kagan but he seems to be right that this is what Trump is hoping for. He started a war without a plan, wasted billions of dollars in equipment, failed to prepare obvious targets for defense, which resulted in unnecessary deaths of American soldiers, hollowed out the Pentagon’s ability to assess targets, which resulted in us murdering over 150 civilians, mostly girls, when we bombed their elementary school in Minab, handed Iran incredible strategic victory by allowing them to take de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and show that we are powerless to stop it, exposed the strategic isolation of the U.S. that his antagonism to our allies has brought us in, and now he’s trying to slink away with some cockamamie cover that he’s going to use to claim victory. The Iran hawks are clamoring for him to “finish the job” but he’s already finished, and Iran knows it. He doesn’t have a mandate to send ground troops, and even he he orders more bombing, it will be a cosmetic tactic designed to disguise the defeat. What can you possibly accomplish by trying the exact same thing after it failed the first time except now you have depleted a lot of the ammo and Congress has gotten more assertive about not expanding the war?

NEW: A federal judge in Tennessee has GRANTED Kilmar Abrego Garcia's motion to DISMISS for vindictive prosecution. (h/t Lawfare's Peter Beck)