Tom Warner
16.4K posts
@warnerta
Former (if there is such a thing) Ukraine correspondent, with classicist and economist alter-egos.
My new research paper/ Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound. Download 👇 iiss.org/research-paper…
If a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it is believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism and Iran still possesses the capability to destroy major Gulf oil infrastructure, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominate force requiring a diplomatic solution. This combination of Iran being perceived as having the ability to terrorize the Strait in perpetuity and the ability the inflict massive damage to Gulf oil infrastructure is a major shift of the balance of power in the region and over time will be a nightmare for Israel. Also, it makes one wonder why the war started to begin with if these perceptions are accurate. I personally am a skeptic of the idea that Iran cannot be denied the ability to terrorize the Strait and the region cannot protect itself against Iranian military capability. It is important we get this right.
SCOOP: The White House is requiring agencies to install its new, highly politicized app on the government phone of every federal employee who has one. The move is highly unusual and creates vulnerabilities, experts say. With @AlmsNatalie, full details 👇
Bye-bye 👋
1/ The Russian government has ordered ports to improve their anti-drone defences. However, that reportedly involves electronic warfare systems which installers admit is ineffective, low-paid security guards, and massively inflated costs. ⬇️ x.com/yarotrof/statu…
NEW: A federal judge in Tennessee has GRANTED Kilmar Abrego Garcia's motion to DISMISS for vindictive prosecution. (h/t Lawfare's Peter Beck)
Direct quote @SecRubio : “Yeah, the peace negotiations on Ukraine under American leadership – let me just say we got involved – okay – because we were told we were the only ones that could do it. We were the only ones that the Russians and the Ukrainians would talk to, so we got involved. They were not fruitful, unfortunately. That’s the – we stand ready to continue to play that role. Despite leaks that are not true, despite stories out there about us forcing the Ukrainians to take this position or that position, which are not true, we – if we see an opportunity to pull together talks that are productive, not counterproductive, and that have the chance to be fruitful, we’re prepared to play that role. There are – there are no such talks occurring at this time, but we hope that will change because that war can only end with a negotiated settlement. It will not end with a military victory by one side or the other, at least from a traditional standpoint of how military victories are defined. So it will have to – and if we can play a role in making that happen, the President is very much interested in doing it. We just, over the last few months, just sort of sensed that there wasn’t a lot of progress being made, but maybe dynamics will change. And if they do, we stand ready to play whatever constructive role we can play. If someone else would like to handle it, they should. But there doesn’t appear to be anybody else in the world right now that can handle it. So we’re more than happy to do that if the opportunity presents itself to have constructive and productive talks. We’re also not interested in getting involved in an endless cycle of meetings that lead to nothing. Okay.” (05/22/2026 Marco Rubio, Secretary of State Helsingborg, Sweden)
Putin is back in his February 2022 mode: Ukrainian soldiers, do not follow the orders the thieving illegitimate junta, the situation of the Ukrainian army is turning from critical to catastrophic. 🤡
Тривожно 🫂
Sources tell me these 4 people are being considered for @ODNIgov: @RepStefanik @RepScottPerry @DevinNunes Rick Crawford
