wxchris

3.5K posts

wxchris

wxchris

@wxchris3

Katılım Ağustos 2021
122 Takip Edilen255 Takipçiler
wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@BeauDodson @Igor__Roik I understand the skepticism given the historical failure (spring barrier, etc) at this time of year. BUT, I think it's a mistake to disregard path dependence on the current event. It's been a one way train since the -IOD collapse in Nov/Dec. The left tail is being squashed fast.
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Beau Dodson
Beau Dodson@BeauDodson·
@Igor__Roik The strongest El Nino ever posts have spread like wildfire. They are ignoring the other data. Now it's gone mainstream. The hype is now off the charts.
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Igor
Igor@Igor__Roik·
O porquê a projeção de El Nino forte, precisa ser levado com muita cautela, após evento de La Nina. Abaixo algumas projeções de El Nino forte que nunca se concretizaram. Exemplos de 2014, 2017, 2021 e 2024 em que as projeções erraram.
Igor tweet mediaIgor tweet mediaIgor tweet mediaIgor tweet media
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@GoodTexture @McClellanOsc If it's outgassing from the ocean in disequilibrium from the atmosphere as is suggested here, the math here is pretty straightforward. Just use Henry's Law and some back of the envelope order-of-magnitude math.
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Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc·
Whether or not anyone thinks that there was a reduction in CO2 emissions resulting from Covid, there was no detectable change in the upward path of measured CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Covid did not move the needle, which shows the pointlessness of trying to change CO2 by constricting human activities. [1/2]
Tom McClellan tweet media
Todd Myers 🐟🌲🐝@WAPolicyGreen

"In order to meet our 2030 targets we will have to reduce CO2 emissions by the equivalent of two COVID-level reductions in just a few years. Doing that is going to be really expensive." #waleg

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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
-22% on KC. It was indeed a short.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
I am not particularly bearish on a multi-year timeframe as I think the ITCZ continuing to move north will ultimately fuck over the Brazil supply and Vietnam is obvs starting to get a taste of typhoon and flooding hell -- but in the shorter run it could get quite a bit better.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
Anyone know of any decent way to get the purest coffee exposure outside of futures? That extreme -IOD peaking and collapsing really making me want short exposure here. Mato Grosso usually cashes in on rainfall in these setups.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@foureyesfiend I haven't worked out how I want to structure it yet bc of the Iran war. Chances are there will be a sizable hit on resolution, so going in too early is not a good idea.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
These guys never change. He's literally calling the bottom on this. Meanwhile I'm getting plays together that will benefit from a super Nino.
wxchris tweet media
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@GoodTexture @McClellanOsc There's an easy test to see if he's right globally and that's to look at ocean pH trends. If it's degassing on net, then pH should be going up. If instead it's a net absorber of CO2, then the opposite will be true.
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Matthew
Matthew@GoodTexture·
@McClellanOsc ohh I noticed this with sparkling water bottles. the cold ones almost never explode when you open the cap!
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@McClellanOsc This chart's lead is literally produced by ENSO variability stacked on a trend. When Nino episodes start, they suppress upwelling of CO2 rich water in the E Pac, temporarily reducing y/o/y CO2 figures. This dynamic reverses as Nino goes on to reduce land sinks later in the year.
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Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc·
Changes in CO2 are a response function to temperatures, not a cause agent of temperatures. Saying it another way, CO2 is the dependent variable, not the driver. [2/2]
Tom McClellan tweet media
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@LyingWrongAgain @2Philosophical_ Would guess that climate stability and phosphorus are far more important than we generally give credit for. You need both volatility dampening *and* on offsetting trend to (parent) stellar luminosity increases. Phosphorus just seems very difficult to make in any decent quantity.
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Make Lying Wrong Again
Make Lying Wrong Again@LyingWrongAgain·
@2Philosophical_ That would be poor reasoning But there’s good evidence life arises according to universal laws of chemistry in narrow conditions & those rare conditions are frequent in a large universe & the molecules common to life (amino & nucleic acids) occur in extraterrestrial environs
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J.P.A.
J.P.A.@2Philosophical_·
“The universe is really big, so it must be filled with life!” 👽 Poor reasoning absent a good account of how life arises.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@labubu_trader Oh I'm no expert on it either. I'm in the weather department. Feel more comfortable in natgas or ag typically (oil is just adjacent most of the time). Just looked very positioning driven coming out of last night.
wxchris tweet media
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3X Long Labubu
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader·
@wxchris3 I’m not an oil trading expert, and you definitely know much more than me. Thanks for the insights.
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3X Long Labubu
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader·
Thanks my wife for waking me up at the opening today at 3:30am, so I got to close the shorts. SPX tested 6475 and reclaimed the key level 6500-6520 quickly, IMO we can’t be bearish as the daily candle of spx looks bullish(oops reversal pattern). Will buy puts if 21d EMA tested but can’t reclaim.
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader

Ok thanks @diamondrapids again for this important message. I not only bought spy puts for hedge as my the other tweet mentioned, but also bought $VG/$CVX/$OXY 0417 calls at the close just in case shit happens.

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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@OptionsSly @CVecchioFX @BankUnlimited @DeItaone "Capital without energy is a sculpture. Labor without energy is a corpse." Wages cannot be the primary driver, as you state. It's always energy+materials in some form. We're turning the stuff that makes up the crust of Earth into the stuff of us, after all.
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Slylust
Slylust@OptionsSly·
Inflation models treat unit labor costs aka wage growth as the primary driver of inflation via marginal-cost channel To verify this empirically wages need to be included in tradeable price system w/commodity $ + goods $ PPI & cmdty explain goods prices far better than wages do...Wages look far more reactive than causal!! 1/2
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
FED'S MIRAN: TELLS CNBC, NO EVIDENCE OF WAGE-PRICE SPIRAL
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
Yeah, I'll take the "over" on current model consensus for the upcoming Nino:
GIF
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@fishingAssassin Personally thinking around Tax Day if most of these retail stonk/crypto are still anywhere near where they're at now. Might be some forced selling around then to cover last year's cap gains taxes and HOOD is a decent retail proxy.
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9^3+10^3
9^3+10^3@fishingAssassin·
I bought $HOOD on Friday. It’s got both clarity act and software m&a positive catalysts possibly coming for it in the near future. Oh yeah, plus they just announced a massive buyback
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@Nintern_ @FarseerSha I've never had an issue with a Devourer DH. On second thought, maybe that's because I slap PI on them on sight.
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Nintern
Nintern@Nintern_·
@FarseerSha Did you mean Devourer instead of feral here
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Sha
Sha@FarseerSha·
Was asked what are my green and red flags were for players in Mythic+ and I thought it was really interesting! Green Flags: takes accountability, troubleshoots problems, friendly Red Flags: blames others, hostile, probably feral druid
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Robert G'Day
Robert G'Day@RobertD11359976·
@ArthurDunger_Oz @stokdog Our electricity prices are bang on OECD average, less when adjusted for cost of living. Our natural gas prices are below most European countries. Despite having risen faster, our petrol and diesel prices are still lower than the UK.
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Stokdog
Stokdog@stokdog·
Below is a comprehensive list of countries that are energy rich in resources like coal, gas and uranium but rely heavily on intermittent energy and pay high energy bills. 1. Australia 🇦🇺
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@MMTmacrotrader My stance has definitely changed. Oil up substantially. Coal up 50% since this post. Only NG is lagging (except Europe lol holy crap) , but it won't forever with LNG demand coming and substitution inevitably rising.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@MMTmacrotrader Don't get me wrong, I'll change my stance in a *big hurry* if it does start moving. Gas to coal switching would take place here if we get north of ~4.00-50 on natgas, so that may be an even better barometer for an inflection of prices.
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@AlexGodofsky @jdcmedlock Also much higher leverage and securitization in the private sector as the burden falls on it to produce those safe assets. And nothing has ever gone wrong with excess leverage.
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Alex Godofsky
Alex Godofsky@AlexGodofsky·
@jdcmedlock In the counterfactual, we would have a much larger capital stock because of those precautionary savings.
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James Medlock
James Medlock@jdcmedlock·
You have to consider the counterfactual. In a world without social security, that money would have to go to precautionary savings and supporting aging parents. Taiwan has far less public spending on the elderly than Sweden, but the burden on working age people is just as high.
James Medlock tweet media
Tweets from Zach Weinberg@zachweinberg

The reason normal people don't feel the benefits of America being super rich + having high taxes is because we spend the vast majority of the tax revenue on old people. Medicare + Social Security. The wealth and taxes are there, the beneficiaries are just 65+.

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Aaron
Aaron@smHttr·
@PinstripeBungle getting a no show job congressional seat representing one of the mainland districts
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wxchris
wxchris@wxchris3·
@taobanker It's great seeing everyone using AI in their everyday work finally run into what us meteorologists have had to deal with for ages. You'll get there eventually. It's part of the fun.
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taobanker
taobanker@taobanker·
My dumbass $qqq model simply refuses to turn bearish
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Keşfet

@BeauDodson @Igor__Roik @GoodTexture @McClellanOsc @foureyesfiend @LyingWrongAgain @2Philosophical_ @elonmusk