Cara Capital

@steep_slopes How do you think about the increase in AR we saw in the last filing?

Bought some more $UMDK last week. This is the only German name in my portfolio as of now. H1 2020 report coming out at end of Nov + letter to shareholders at beg of Dec and "maybe" even more. Lots of catalysts to look forward to. Mkt not awake on the potential this co has. DYODD

@junkbondinvest @mdudas

Has anyone considered (or already completed) liquidating their retirement accounts to buy $BTC? Even w/ the upfront penalties/taxes, the upside in $BTC over the long-term could make it worthwhile. #onlyhalfjoking #bullgang

@1MainCapital @PrefShares Do they also give figures for other years? Not sure 2020 is the right year to look at

@PrefShares Airbnb - most of our guests discover Airbnb organically, with approximately 91% of all traffic to Airbnb coming through direct or unpaid channels during the nine months ended September 30, 2020.

@jmo389 @WallStCynic @SquawkStreet @davidfaber Ok, thanks. You are correct I did not take any restrictions into account, simply took the 2.6B at face value. Will need to dig (a lot) deeper on this one.

@yellow_capital @WallStCynic @SquawkStreet @davidfaber His numbers are off by a bit. But you might also using an inflated cash number. Free cash is $951mn at 3Q end. Can’t count a lot of the restricted stuff that they are holding

Live Nation ($LYV) will have almost $9B in net debt/pfd by the time concerts return next summer. Peak EBITDA was $770M in 2019. Stock is at 30x that peak EBITDA currently. Another example of “beaten-down” companies at all-time high valuations. @SquawkStreet @davidfaber

@asymmetricbets Why MO and not PM or BATS?

I just doubled my position in $MO, AMA.

@Melendhar @ArgoBlockchain How do you see the downside protection? I have not done my research on this, but if BTC would crash and stay low for an extended period I don't see this working out. Especially since they hold a decent chunk. Can be completely wrong off course.

@yellow_capital @ArgoBlockchain Better downside protection. Not to mention that the vast majority of investors have their capital in ISA/SIPP accounts for tax benefits. You cant buy #btc through those

#ARB thread With so much interest in the ongoing #Bitcoin bull run and @ArgoBlockchain I decided to write a quick summary which might be of help to new holders and those who end up being interested in the company in the coming weeks/months.

@marketplunger1 Didn’t the fundsmith EM strategy sell this one because of governance and regulatory concerns?

Lots of talk on FinTwit about tobacco companies like $MO and $PM. Investors should look to Egypt for one of the most interesting tobacco investments in the world. The Eastern Tobacco $EAST thesis is simple: - $EAST owns 100% of the Egypt tobacco industry and trades 5x P/E.

@PucilowskiM @paulg 16yo me would interpret this chart as “if I can have a beer, I can do cocaine”

@paulg How old are your kids? Would they be able to interpret this? This diagram is the best way to communicate drug harm I've run into.

Last night my sons asked me all about drugs. I told them in as much detail as I could about each kind. My hope is that "fentanyl is *way* more dangerous than pot" will work better than the implicit equality of "say no to drugs."

@compound100x True. Living in Belgium and quite sure 90% of people here has never heard of any except for YT, Netflix and Disney.

Now do global and we will quickly realise how wide an advantage youtube and nflx have developed over peers

@specialsit1 If you don't mind me asking, how did you get to the upside/downside figures?

@junkbondinvest And depending on how you define 'worked out', you could add Softbank. Though it's not something I would be comfortable holding for the LT.

@junkbondinvest Sofina and Brederode, two belgian holdco's

What was the last SOTP pitch that actually worked out well? Always sounds better in theory than actuality

Had to jump through some hoops but managed to get a decent chunck at an average of 0.85 cents, for a 17.6% return if Trump is not inaugurated as president before February 1st.

Someone on polymarket is giving away free money, odds on Trump not being inaugurated as president are 1.25, that's a 25% return by January 20th

@TheStalwart Looking forward to this one! When do you expect it to drop?

We just did an Odd Lots with Stacy all about the decline of Intel's manufacturing process. Here's his tweet from last month after he was denied the chance to ask a Q on the $INTC conference call. It was fun as hell. People are going to love it twitter.com/Srasgon/status…

@johnauthers Polymarket looks very similar. Betting on Trump not being inaugurated on Jan 20th (less risky than Biden winning I would say) yields a 25% return.

I was hoping never to look at prediction markets BUT if you want to bet on Biden to win the presidency on Predictit today, you still stand to make a 16% return. Financial markets may be understating the risk of a long drawn-out contest to the election, and even a Trump victory.

@weekend_invest @ValueStockGeek @TimTravis2 They also publish their AGM on youtube for lazy people like me youtube.com/watch?v=PZy9-4…

@ValueStockGeek @TimTravis2 I agree it's an interesting read, although I think you can possibly save yourself the cash and read his annual letters on the Fundsmith website as felt most of the annual letters were the best bits of his other writings in the book.

@cap_zay @MadThunderdome Ok, thanks. Have been staring at these for way too long.

@yellow_capital @MadThunderdome Sorry if I misspoke, but point is odds are improving for 50/50 for which VP is tiebreaker and possibility of 51/49, whereas I think probability of that were lower before.