Nick Georgis

@Mayhem4Markets @stevehou @GoogleAI @GoogleAIStudio @Google @GeminiApp So a correction vs a bear market. After the returns we have had that would a pretty good worse case.

I asked Gemini 3.5 Flash to create a framework to project S&P 500 pricing for the end of this year through the end of 2028. The framework I asked it to create used a blended macro + fundamental + momentum approach and created three primary outcomes: bull, base and bear. For 2026 year-end these are the numbers it gave me. > Bull case: 8100 > Base case: 7650 > Bear case: 6600 This was a part of the reasoning behind it: "To predict the trajectory of the S&P 500 through 2026, 2027, and 2028, we must design an institutional-grade predictive engine. Relying solely on historical trendlines or earnings models often overlooks systemic structural shifts. The current market environment illustrates this precisely: the index is trading at near-record highs (7,350–7,400), propelled by blockbusting Q1 earnings growth (+25.1% year-over-year) and heavy AI capital allocation, yet it simultaneously faces immediate pressure from a bond market selloff that has pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.2%." After which it did indeed design a relatively institutional grade multivariate framework for projecting the market's pricing over the next ~2.5 years. The whole process only took a few minutes. Genuinely impressive.

@adamtaggart The Goat.

Today is my mom's birthday. She passed away in 2023. She was a huge animal lover & this picture is very much how I remember her She's feeding the swan that lived in the river behind our house. Our dog & cats are with her (one on her shoulders). Missing that day was our pet opossum, Jake (pictured here with me on Christmas) Life in Priscilla's house was different than most Hope the cosmos are treating you well, Mom

@adamtaggart @kevinolearytv If only they could print dollars.

IMO, one thing California is betting on is that when the chickens eventually do come home to roost, it will be bailed out by the Federal Government Because the state represents such a large percentage of the nation's GDP, food production, etc, it will say "We're too big to fail. You HAVE to bail us out." So with an assumed guaranteed backstop, California's leaders don't fear the consequences of their flawed policies. They'll appease their base in the immediate term and let the Federal bean counters clean up the mess later. Until & unless they feel vulnerable to being held accountable, I predict they'll just keep running the state into the ground.

The challenge for people that live and pay taxes in California, regardless of politics, is their state is a mess. It's a complete mess at the state level, the governmental level, the mayor in LA, the people leaving based on policy. The policy's terrible. And I think we've come to the tilting point as we start to debate who's gonna be providing management skills, executional skills for the state going forward. This is an important tilting point in the sense, what's coming next? I mean, it can't get worse.

@Brady_H $4.00 a bar is pretty hefty.

I bought “Paul Saladino’s protein bar.” I had to try them. Overall, very tasty and more “food like” than most protein bars. But it still tastes like I blended up a chocolate whey shake, froze it, and ate it. Too “fluffy” for me. 8.2/10 (but I’d buy them again).

@adamtaggart @SantiagoAuFund @citizenkoin It was totally uncool to like him back then but I couldn’t help humming his tunes

@ledooze @SantiagoAuFund @citizenkoin John Denver was a legend, too

Top 3: Sweet Child O’ Mine She sells Sanctuary Baba O’ Riley

@SantiagoAuFund @citizenkoin @adamtaggart Dire Straits wasn’t a band yet by my wedding. Settled for Annie’s Song instead.

@citizenkoin @adamtaggart This played at my wedding…✌️

@SantiagoAuFund @adamtaggart Same. Love the band but also one of my least favorite songs by them. They do so many great songs. Never forget hearing Sultans of Swing at a concert years ago (probably before they wrote MforN) and the ovation went on for over five minutes afterwards.

@adamtaggart That is one of my least favorite Dire Straits song though. This one is tough to beat. The 2:50 mark is perfection. youtu.be/-5KpLRWY8sA?si…

@SantiagoAuFund @adamtaggart 🎯

@adamtaggart And Knopfler is easily my favorite guitarist

@SantiagoAuFund I’m not ready.

I heard a great conspiracy theory this weekend. Ready...? The three men who "escaped from Alcatraz" didn't actually escape. The theory goes that they were secretly given a pardon to "comply with the Moon landing story"...and went on to "become" Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, & Michael Collins...🫡😅

@PadraigHTracker @padraig_h Will there be a PGA picking game?

RT Here we go again!!! It's time for the The Masters picking game. Please pick two from each category / screenshot (6 picks) and send me your picks by DM or by a tweet. You must pick two from each category which are screenshotted. All are welcome! #TheMasters Everyone welcome!!!

@Brad_Setser @robin_j_brooks And there is a guy sitting in a cafe in Frankfurt wishing he was in Paris.

Don't we all.

@flagellan @ctindale @ProfSteveKeen Do you happen to have a citation for that claim?

@ctindale @ProfSteveKeen Look on the bright side... Wheat is absolutely toxic to the O blood types which is ~50% of the population in the US.

The 2027 wheat disaster is going to arrive dramatically NOAA says there is only a “1 in 4” chance of a very strong El Niño. As I demonstrated yesterday that forecast is useless . It’s closer to a 75% super El Niño forecast of you model it on more recent background data The current forecast based on a relative ENSO lens. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index compares the Niño 3.4 region against the wider tropical ocean. In plain English: when the whole tropical ocean is already hot, part of that heat gets subtracted from the signal. The national U.S. winter wheat crop is already ugly: 31% good-to-excellent. But the real signal is in the hard red winter wheat belt. Across the seven major HRW states, only 18% is good-to-excellent. Nebraska and Colorado are already in yield-loss territory. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and South Dakota are already high risk. Montana is elevated risk. That is before the full El Niño load has even arrived. So visualise the setup: Hot Niño 3.4 
plus hot tropical background
plus drought-damaged wheat belt
plus depleted soil moisture
plus higher evaporation
plus fragile food supply chains
equals 2027 wheat shock This is the mistake. People are treating El Niño 2027 like another historical analogue. The paleorecord contains El Niño. It does not contain El Niño running through this modern overheated ocean layer, with industrial agriculture, weakened soils, stressed aquifers, fragile trade routes, and crop belts already flashing red. 2027 is a year from hell

@Brady_H Assume aligning means exercising during whatever your chronotype is? A late morning should exercise in the late morning preferably?

“Aligning aerobic exercise with an individual’s chronotype resulted in consistently greater reductions in blood pressure and larger improvements in HRV and fitness compared with circadian-misaligned exercise.”

@stevehou So maybe stay out of casinos.

Bought a stock bc the funny name “KLIC”ed with me & bc it was selected by the earnings inflection index and it promptly doubled. I still honestly haven’t quite figured out what it does. Something to do with “semiconductors through ball bonding equipment”. Zero idea what it means

@pmarca @TMTLongShort Robert Bryce has a lot to say about data centers.

Mass negativity toward tech — whether social media, AI, or otherwise — is mainly just an artifact of loaded polling questions and the elite press. For the most part, it doesn’t otherwise exist. You can see that in properly constructed polls like this, and in observed behavior.

@TMTLongShort @LowAlphaHighVol Don’t tell them retirement age will go to 80.

@LowAlphaHighVol I was careful to say think because the paper clips might come for us all

AI optimism is going to quickly turn into longevity optimism and we are not equipped as a society to handle the profound changes in behavior that accompanies everyone believing they have another hundred healthy years left

@TheMichaelEvery @SantiagoAuFund Stop making me laugh.

There is so much of this kind of thing going on that it’s hard to keep track of all of it. Increasingly, I may just have to tap the ECONOMIC STATECRAFT sign to save time.

@Brady_H Did you just find an excuse to use the word ‘run’ in a sentence? I’m here for it.

@ledooze We do. They run out.

Jonathan doesn’t have a 3-year-old and it shows… 😄

@asymdownside @TMTLongShort @fejau_inc I have Oura ring but best way to measure HRV is in the morning with something like Morpheus or HRV for Training. Nighttime reads apparently not very accurate. I use Morpheus.

@ledooze @TMTLongShort @fejau_inc Yeah you can get similar data via garmin or aura ring as well

I have to stop myself from walking over to random people in the street just to tell them about Retatrutide. It’s like when you’re long Bitcoin but worse. Going to radically change society when it’s out next year.