AFKGuy002 (@AFKGuy002) - โปรไฟล์ Twitter

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·31 Mar

Yesterday, Donald Trump's net approval rating hit a second term low of -17 in the Silver Bulletin average. Assuming a uniform swing from 2024 presidential margins, here's what that looks like by current Congressional district. In total, underwater in 295 districts (over 2/3s!).

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·1h

First of all, New England only has 21 districts. Hawaii, Delaware, and New Mexico are very notably not in New England. Second of all, why do Republicans insist on using these ugly AI-generated graphics? The actual maps are not hard to find!

Benny Johnson@bennyjohnson

Republican voters make up 40% of New England. Democrats control the district lines. Result: 🔴 — 0 🔵 — 27

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·2h

@Bill__L Would be 228 Trump to 207 Harris, with OH-01 (R +2.6) as the tipping point

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Bill@Bill__L·4h

@AFKGuy002 If the referendum does get blocked, what does the tipping point district and margin change to?

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·1d

With the passage of the Virginia redistricting referendum, here's the updated map of how the 2024 presidential election looks under the current November 2026 congressional lines. 224 Trump districts, 211 Harris districts. Tipping point seat is (the new) CA-22 at Trump +1.8

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·9h

@DrewSav @JMilesColeman @LIEngProf @TheAleksee

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·9h

Same map with 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. 2008: 252 Obama, 183 McCain, Tipping Point: D +6.3 (MD-02) 2012: 232 Obama, 203 Romney, Tipping Point: D +2.6 (CO-07) 2016: 217 Clinton, 218 Trump, Tipping Point: R +0.4 (CA-48) 2020: 226 Biden, 209 Trump, Tipping Point: D +4.5 (KS-03)

AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002

With the passage of the Virginia redistricting referendum, here's the updated map of how the 2024 presidential election looks under the current November 2026 congressional lines. 224 Trump districts, 211 Harris districts. Tipping point seat is (the new) CA-22 at Trump +1.8

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·1d

@maps_spams @DrewSav 226 Biden districts, 209 Trump '20 districts

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M@maps_spams·1d

@AFKGuy002 @DrewSav What about Biden districts?

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·1d

@DrewSav @JMilesColeman

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·2d

For those curious, here's how each of the proposed Virginia CDs have voted since 2008, and Trump's expected approval rating in each (based on a uniform swing from 2024 results to his Silver Bulletin net average).

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Chaz Nuttycombe@ChazNuttycombe·2d

🚨RACE CALL🚨 @StateNavigate projects that Virginia will pass the redistricting amendment which enacts a Democratic gerrymander that will elect 10 Democrats and 1 Republican this year to the US House. Election Results projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v… 10-1 Map projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v…

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·6d

In comparison to other approval rating measurements, Strength in Numbers has much worse numbers than Trump. The uniform swing to Silver Bulletin’s numbers had about double the number of approving districts (140 at net -17 national approval).

AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002

Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, uses polling responses and Census data to calculate Trump's approval rating by congressional district. Here's the map of the latest data among all adults. Just *71* districts (16 percent) have an approval rating above 50%.

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·6d

Minor correction: The South Carolina CD with 50.0% approval is the 4th, not the 6th. The color scheme is still correct!

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·6d

Strength In Numbers, by G. Elliott Morris, uses polling responses and Census data to calculate Trump's approval rating by congressional district. Here's the map of the latest data among all adults. Just *71* districts (16 percent) have an approval rating above 50%.

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·6d

Requested by @BeshearStan @DrewSav @JMilesColeman @LIEngProf @TheAleksee

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·6d

Data retrieved from here: projects.gelliottmorris.com/trump-approval/

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Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1·6d

The 2026 Congressional Special Election in NJ-09, a contest between former NJ WFP head @AnaliliaForNJ and Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway resulted in a commanding Victory for Mejía, slightly surpassing Mikie Sherrill's 2022 margin of victory in the seat, and doing better than all...

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AFKGuy002@AFKGuy002·17 Nis

@bayo_gbakinro @skep_observer Yeah, should have clarified that Kavanaugh was looking for the temporality argument Still, the heart of the difference is that the Milligan ruling was focused on Gingles, and now Louisana and the court are gunning much more directly at Section 2 itself

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Báyọ̀@bayo_gbakinro·17 Nis

@AFKGuy002 @skep_observer That’s not true as AL did challenge that? Kavanaugh even agrees with the constitutionality conclusion presented by the majority in his concurrence! His argument was about temporality. The argument in Callais is whether LA’s second Black district is constitutional.

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skep._@skep_observer·17 Nis

What’s the logic behind the Supreme Court deciding in Allen v Milligan that Alabama must draw another majority minority seat to 3 years later turning around and potentially gutting VRA? They changed their minds?

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