Davis Catlin

@LasVegasLocally the lights are out on the entire south half of the strip down to Sunset BLVD.

@DustinGouker It’s just like $GAMB with its Odds Jam acquisition

The market cap of Genius Sports is now lower than the potential full earn-out value of the Legend acquisition, which is $1.2 billion. Just one of the wilder things I've witnessed in my time in the industry.

@DustinGouker Can I put in DavisTradesStuff in the tracker?

This is not at all a fleshed out idea, but I want to start highlighting prediction markets startups in my newsletter (The Event Horizon) and/or create a directory of these companies. Google Form for interested startups: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

A PSA: I just had a very credible sounding scam who claimed to be a Sheriff’s officer who told me that I missed a court date as a witness. Great story, lots of pressure including ‘I’ll be the one to cuff you.’ Called the main sherrif line who said ‘if you got called, it’s a scam’

@DCat7 That B should be a T

I’m excited to announce I’m launching the latest prediction market, DavisTradesStuff, and ‘we’ are raising money at a $78.34B valuation. We are expect to apply for our DCM ‘in the coming weeks’. We are going to disrupt the disruptors disruption. Investors apply below…

I’ve had 25 people look at my profile after posting this. I assume 6 are from @a16z, 7 are @sequoia, 48 from @kalshi and 3 are @Tiger_Global. When should I expect the term sheet?!?! #biddingwar

You laugh (or scoff), but Meek Mill just raised $35m for his own might-be-a-DCM-someday outfit

@heyjayhuffman Of course. To keep a bubble (or Ponzi scheme) going for longer - the rule is ‘say yes to all new dollars’.

@DCat7 can I link my Roth IRA?

@abusacca Some dude I met online in a discord. He seems legit. His Venmo is linked to Nigeria, but I think that’s just his VPN acting up. he promised no fees for the first $1B I send to him.

@DCat7 What DCO are you clearing through?

@wagmiwearco @WuBlockchain The reason almost no one will do it (except us) is due to all of the gambling licensing laws. No tech GP wants to get licensed to do an actual gambling deal.. so this is like nirvana for them. Gambling without licensing. Unless it’s deemed illegal, then they go to zero.

@WuBlockchain VCs discovered gambling but made it sound intelligent.

According to Fortune, two early employees of Kalshi are raising up to $35 million for a prediction-market focused venture fund called 5c(c) Capital. The fund is backed by Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, and Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, alongside investors including Marc Andreessen. The fund plans to invest in around 20 prediction-market startups over the next two years.

This is an actual ?: if this predictions markets bill gets to a vote, won’t all 39 states with OSBs have their representatives vote for it to protect tax $? Then the states that don’t want gambling, won’t they also vote for it? Is it PM lobbying $ that mostly fights it?

@alexursa @Kalshi Resident of LV

@DCat7 @Kalshi Are you a NV resident or traveling? They might block just residents

@kalshi still works in NV tonight. When do they have to stop taking bets here? kalshi.com/t/1ejuw6

@business It still works in LV right now. I just ‘invested’ in Arizona to win it all.

Kalshi was temporarily barred by a judge from offering its prediction market contracts in Nevada, after state regulators said the company didn’t have a gaming license. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@ssigsbee Where do I apply to be VP of Ordering Lunch for the team?

Imawhale is going all-in on prediction markets. $500M+ in volume #1 on Kalshi volume leaderboard (opt ins) This is just the starting point. We’re building the leading PM trading platform. Strategic partners + hires: imawhale.com

@Max_Sorokin_ @Kalshi Oh really. Have you check in on Juul labs recently? It reached a $38B in valuation in 2018… This is almost certainly going to the Supreme Court in the next 3 years who will decide.

@DCat7 @Kalshi They're too big too completely fail at this point. The only risk is bans/fights with individual states. They will face case by case state fights/bans over the next decade but its nearly impossible that they are just banned everywhere at this point.

I asked Claude’s deep work model for the odds that @kalshi’s business is materially impaired by a regulatory action over the next 5 years. It placed the odds at 55-60%. The $20B valuation is actually much higher on a risk adjusted basis. I’m not defending those odds.

@carlosindex02 @chamath You can use @OutlierDotBet to arb sportsbooks every day and they also include Kalshi.

@chamath you can now arbitrage between prediction markets.

@NooskcajLeahcim @chamath None.

@chamath Chamath, always insightful. Curious about the impact of these trends on blockchain adoption and innovation.

@ctboosts @fliff This is the correct way to do tax forms for sweepstakes. You don’t get to net out losses, which makes it tough for the players vs gambling. Many companies don’t do this correctly (tax evasion issues), but I’m sorry you got stuck with a big tax bill.

Not only did @fliff wait until mid-March to send out tax forms, but they also confirmed those forms are based on total prize redemptions—not actual profit. So despite being down $11K on the year, I still received a tax form showing over $40K in winnings. Posting to warn others!