Long Range Toddy
3.2K posts


It was an honor to sit down with my good friend, great jockey and racing analyst, Richard (The Mig) Migliore.
Among Champions@amongchampions
On the latest Among Champions, champion jockey Richard Migliore reveals it’s not just about winning—it’s about relentless dedication to your craft. #AmongChampions #ChampionMindset #Resilience #EntrepreneurLife #MentalToughness @mig4450
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Here's my video covering the Oaklawn Handicap this week. I make the case for Journalism. If he really stays at his 5/2 morning line odds, which is questionable, then I might play him on top.
If Sovereignty and Journalism are close in odds, I'll skip it - youtube.com/watch?v=YGtUQB…

YouTube
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@menscoach1 Selfless life 🙏 hang in their your a man of honor
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My wife cheated on me after 10 years of marriage. She had an affair with her gym trainer, and it lasted a year.
She cried and begged for forgiveness. I stayed for our two young kids.
That was 2 years ago, but the pain is still fresh. I am consumed by anger every day.
The images replay nonstop.
I hate my marriage. I hate my wife. I hate myself.
I feel like I’ve lost direction. I don’t know where to go... or where to stop.
How do I stop hating myself... for who I’ve become?
--From my Dm, give him some advice.
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@RacingDFS The breed is broken they don't make them like they used to unfortunately
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@belmostickey God forbid a horse breaks down on the big stage also
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@MichaelPBento @TraderJonesy Just asking a question 🤔 unless its propaganda u seem to know it all
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March 2022 vs April 2026
Notice anything familiar?
In 2022 after the initial breakdown of the 200DMA, the retest that cracked above it terminated the day after the 10DMA crossed back above the 200DMA.
As long as we don't drop below 670 tomorrow, we will get the 10DMA crossing back above the 200DMA
In 2022 that 11% rally was just as swift and steep as this one, everyone thought it was over and new ATH are coming, then we spent the next month going down -17.50%.
Tomorrow we get a DeMark 9 Count Sell on the daily, and a 13 count sell on the 4H.
RSI on every time frame below the daily is firmly in overbought territory.
The call gamma magnet rolled off today.
The downtrend is not invalidated unless we go above 693.
Oil Shortages are starting to bite.
All of these factors are why I still have a bearish outlook, however much I may have "missed" on the way up will be made 4 fold on the next leg down. Recency bias is a killer and everyone these days has the memory of a goldfish. Bottom line is unless we break above 693 I have no reason to be bullish in my 2 month time horizon.


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Every major market top in history had one thing in common.
Margin debt peaked first.
2000: margin debt topped → Dotcom crash
2008: margin debt topped → Financial crisis
2022: margin debt topped → −25% bear market
Today?
Margin debt has just topped again.
When borrowed money starts leaving the market — it doesn’t trickle out.
It floods out.
This is the risk factor nobody is discussing.

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@JesseCohenInv Retail the hedge funds offsides again and the ctas
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@sigimendoza @Capper_RMac Saffie hot at Oaklawn when he ships ...
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@Capper_RMac @sigimendoza Saffie hot at oaklawn ... I still can't see sovereignty losing ..journalism suspect i don't trust that horse maybe for 2nd or 3rd
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@sigimendoza I don't trust White Abarrio outside of Gulfstream, especially since we saw him struggle outside of Gulfstream last year.
But I know Saffie Joseph Jr. just won the Apple Blossom with Claret Beret, so maybe it doesn't matter.
Do you think White Abarrio can upset the Oaklawn H.?
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@Capper_RMac Screws won't be tightened for Saturday but probably his b or c game beats these anyways
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What does everyone think of Sovereignty's April 4 work in company with the maiden Commerce?
Past the turn, it does look like Sovereignty is being asked to move forward, and it takes him a while to get past his workmate. Maybe Commerce is really good? 1st.tv/video/sovereig…
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