Jon Klaric

@MickamiousG @sentdefender Point 5 is an abject failure. ~5-10% of global gas and oil supplies are now on fire and won’t be back online for years.

@sentdefender The issue in point 5 is that they’ve failed this and the Gulf States know it, particularly Bahrain

In a post moments ago on TruthSocial, President Trump stated that they are getting “very close” to meeting their objectives in the Iran War and are considering winding down military efforts in the Middle East directed at Iran, with those objectives including: 1. “Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them.” 2. “Destroying Iran's Defense Industrial Base.” 3. “Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry.” 4. “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place.” 5. “Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.” President Trump closes the post by stating regarding the Strait of Hormuz: “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it - The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

I really hope cursor made it rain on moonshot for this deal. Excited to see if cursor wraps Kimi 3, minimax3 and GLM/6 in the future.

@zerohedge This feels like someone organizing a party, they order the most expensive thing on the menu then skipping out on the bill…

*TRUMP SAYS US CONSIDERING 'WINDING DOWN' IRAN MILITARY EFFORT *TRUMP SAYS OTHER NATIONS, NOT US, MUST GUARD STRAIT OF HORMUZ

@AvidCommentator It’s such a strange thing watching the US and even MAGA fracture into pro-war and anti-war camps…

My suspicion is Trump is playing the Wall Street bros with his rhetoric. This disjointed rhetoric isnt going to work on the average American who just sees the cost of gas taking off. And the Iranians just see bombs and missiles exploding.

@matt_barrie @Harold36089778 Pretty sweet they offer a 25% bulk but discount, someone should forward this to albo.

For less than a one bedroom deposit in Wollongong some bloke in Henan is selling a diesel refinery for $59,000 on Alibaba. Comes with 1 year warranty. You too can help rebuild australias energy security! alibaba.com/product-detail…

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie The US (and you) are the ones claiming they’re broke and this will be over quickly, yet the US is claiming they are running out of interceptor missiles….

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Oh wow, 20 days into a war and they aren’t completely out of ammo yet. They’re invincible!

It is hard to model scenarios you have never lived through, which is why most people can't do it. You can provide most people with all the evidence - everything that makes it look almost certain a particular thing will happen - but at the end of the day most won't make that final leap of faith to say 'yep, that's gonna happen, I need to act'. The reason for this is twofold: 1) they lack generality across domains (can't reason from first principles, and are missing too many mental models of how the world works) 2) they are not used to thinking about these things, and simply don't care. In any case, black swans are always an interesting case study of human behaviour. Because you always think 'surely, this time, they will see it.' But no, they never do.

@matteocollina @nodejs So what does “responsibility and accountability” mean for the devs who submit AI generated work and sign the DVO? Because I didn’t get a clear picture of what my responsibilities are for code once I submit it to a larger project.

@complex_maths @nodejs Anybody can sue anybody else, there is literally nothing preventing it. Note: none of this is the point of view of @nodejs.

🧵 I wrote almost 19,000 lines of code for a Virtual File System in @nodejs core using Claude Code. It started over Christmas and has been refined over almost three months of review. A collaborator challenged whether AI-assisted contributions can meet the DCO requirements. Here's what happened, and why it matters for all of open source.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie Because the US has expended billions on interceptor missiles. Unless you think the secretary of War is lying?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie They’ve launched thousands and hit about 50 targets. And they’re running out. There options are: run out in a few weeks, surrender, die.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie Yes, because you can’t drink cash.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Loaded but almost had to evacuate Tehran for lack of water. LOL.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie The ME can barely occupy themselves. Look at how they’ve managed to deal with the Houthis, Hezbolah etc. thinking that this would be a 2 month endeavour is fanciful. NATO bases in Europe are to protect the US moreso than Europe.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Who’s talking about occupying anything other than ME bases we already occupy? With Iran out of the way we can reduce troop levels. And now that it’s 100% clear that NATO sucks, we can close the European bases. All that benefit for 2 months inconvenience.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie Almost never hit anything except all those hits on 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies… genius observation skills there champ

@complex_maths @rationalaussie The bombs we’ll be using are about $10K. No need for the expensive stuff. Planes & pilots have to fly regardless. They can with drop dummies on the range or real ones on Iran. Iran’s good drones are $30K & almost never hit anything. You’re grasping at silly straws.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie The place that they are going to build it isn’t being bombed and will not be bombed. They are loaded and have a guaranteed income stream from China. Their drones cost pennies compared with American missiles, and the outcome is a still closed strait - like we are seeing right now.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 3/For the millionth time, you can’t conduct major construction or manufacturing activities while being bombed at will. We can let them spend their remaining pennies rebuilding the missile plants, and when they’re at about 80% of spend, we blow them up. They aren’t insured.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie And the US is chickening out. What appetite will the population have for a drawn out occupation when gas hits $6/gallon?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 2/The other question mark was whether the Arabs would wimp out if attacked. Iran gambled they would & lost. The Arabs are now highly pissed & want Persian scalps. THEY are now demanding we stay as long as takes to crush the drone & missile threat. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie And all the drone strikes, clearly

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 1/It wouldn’t happened this time if they just cooked it. Attempts to restart guarantee this happens again. Look, the only thing deterring us was the threat of getting shot down & the missile threat vs the Arabs. There is no more air defense really.

How are they broke? They have billions stashed away, and the ships that are getting through the strait are oil and goods ships trading with China. Unless the US also goes to war with China how do you propose to stop Chinese flagged ships getting through? You’re really pro-war aren’t you buddy… did you seriously learn nothing from Iraq and Afghanistan?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie They’re broke. And they will no longer have any income unless we allow it. Since they have no future, nobody is going to loan them anything. Who cares about the nuke plant? It’s only for power. We simply bomb the grid. You’re really crazy aren’t you?

@zerohedge They might still be pissed at the whole bombing thing

*TRUMP: WE WANT TO TALK TO IRAN, THERE IS NOBODY TO TALK TO

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie It’s extremely expensive especially when compared to the cost of Irans drones, some of which are even 3D printed.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 2So they can put in some crazy Ayatollah. Fine. If they receive weapons, we blow them up. If they try to rebuild, boom. When you have constant surveillance and can be over target in minutes with no resistance, it isn’t that hard or even expensive.

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie So why are ships and oil and gas facilities still being bombed and droned?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie So they’re magical? As badly as they are outgunned by land & sea, it’s worse on the ground. They can’t stick their heads up. We can go wherever we want. I don’t understand you.

Yet the strait is still closed, drones are still bombing everywhere and yet the largest Navy in the world - the navy of the country that started it - still thinks it’s too risky to go in themselves … I have zero understanding where your confidence in any of this comes from when every piece of evidence points to the exact opposite?

@complex_maths @rationalaussie 1We are no longer in the mindset business. We are in the destroy business. All offensive capabilities are being destroyed. Then we “leave”. We go back to the other side of the gulf. About 1 minute by plane. Why’s this so hard to understand?

@DanWells1139026 @rationalaussie A day or two? More like a decade or two.

@complex_maths @rationalaussie Of course not. They’ll fight for a day or 2. Then they’ll be dead. And we’ll lose some guys. Maybe 100. The Arabs & IDF as well. But it will be over & the gulf will be open for good. A huge gift to the world paid for by 1/2 dozen, mostly tiny countries.