Travis

4K posts

Travis

Travis

@tthomson

Searching for interesting questions. Learning and sharing about habit formation, persuasion, and AI.

เข้าร่วม Eylül 2022
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Taint McRae
Taint McRae@HaywoodJuhBlome·
@tthomson @AIHighlight @grok you can’t even provide one possible way ai creates more jobs than it takes and you’re out here trying to convince people it will. that’s anti human and vile
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AI Highlight
AI Highlight@AIHighlight·
🚨BREAKING: Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper that should be uncomfortable reading for every CEO automating their workforce right now. The argument is straightforward. Every company replacing workers with AI is also eliminating its own future customers. Laid off workers stop spending. Enough of them stop spending and nobody can afford to buy anything. The companies that fired everyone end up selling into an economy with no purchasing power left. Every executive can see this. The math is not complicated. But here is why nobody stops. If you do not automate, your competitor does. They cut costs, lower prices, take your market share, and you collapse anyway. So every company automates knowing it is collectively destructive because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives. The researchers proved this is a Prisoner's Dilemma playing out in real time. The numbers are already moving. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year. Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that within the next year the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI. Goldman Sachs deployed a coding tool that lets one engineer do the work of five. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 and AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half those cases. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation. The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income does not change a single company's incentive to automate. Capital income taxes adjust profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human. Collective bargaining cannot hold because automating is always the dominant strategy. They also identified what they call a Red Queen effect. Better AI does not solve the problem, it accelerates it. Every company chases faster automation to gain market share over rivals but at the end everyone has automated equally, the gains cancel out, and the only thing left is more destroyed demand. The one thing the math says could work is a Pigouvian automation tax. A per-task charge that forces companies to account for the demand they destroy each time they replace a worker. The conclusion is that this is not a transfer of wealth from workers to owners. Both sides lose. Workers lose income. Companies lose customers. It is a deadweight loss with no market mechanism to stop it on its own.
AI Highlight tweet media
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Taint McRae
Taint McRae@HaywoodJuhBlome·
@tthomson @AIHighlight @grok that’s because the tractor didn’t replace workers at all jobs which is why your analogy doesn’t work. you can’t explain how ai will create more jobs than it consumes, you use this analogy as hopium
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Taint McRae
Taint McRae@HaywoodJuhBlome·
@tthomson @AIHighlight @grok that analogy doesn’t work for this. farms have less employees now than before the tractor was invented. and again in this scenario, the tractor is replacing workers at all jobs
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Dave
Dave@GamewithDave·
For anyone who used a computer between 1990 & 2005… what’s the one game you still think about?
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
@HaywoodJuhBlome @AIHighlight @grok That’s like asking the farmers how the Industrial Revolution was about to create an abundance of jobs. They could barely conceive of what was about to happen. I don’t know exactly. But like I said, we won’t have to wait long to find out who’s right.
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
@paulg I have a problem remembering this. I get so caught up in the possibility that it all turns into a waste of time, and the longer horizon I give it, the more time I waste. Have to learn to roll the dice more and just cope with that possibility.
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Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
Something I taught 14 yo: Most progress is a mix of steps forward and steps back, just with with more of the former. But you can get a run of steps back. So to judge progress accurately you need to use a big enough window, or it could look like you're failing.
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Travis รีทวีตแล้ว
Claude
Claude@claudeai·
Introducing Claude Opus 4.7, our most capable Opus model yet. It handles long-running tasks with more rigor, follows instructions more precisely, and verifies its own outputs before reporting back. You can hand off your hardest work with less supervision.
Claude tweet media
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
I can already tell that Opus 4.7 is much better at tutoring. And it's sticking to the instructions better (only quizzing me on material from the specific chapters I'm asking to review). Yesterday, 4.6 was fumbling with this.
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
@DrClownPhD Why couldn't HBO have just done this?
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Dr. Clown, PhD
Dr. Clown, PhD@DrClownPhD·
We need a full Type Sh*t Potter movie 🤣
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
@chatgpt21 What he's saying seems very reasonable to me. They can't have Anthropic directly, or at any point down the supply chain, call the shots moment-to-moment while lives are at stake.
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Chris
Chris@chatgpt21·
🚨 PENTAGON TO ANTHROPIC: “YOU CAN’T HAVE CONTROL OF THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR” The Pentagon’s Under Secretary just laid out the real reason the standoff with Anthropic blew up. From his telling, this was not some soft Silicon Valley “culture clash” over AI policy. It turned into a direct fight over control. Anthropic did not want Claude used for autonomous weapons, and the government’s response was basically: a private AI lab does not get final say over U.S. national security decisions as long as those actions are lawful. His quotes make the point pretty clearly: “They wanted control. And you can’t have control of the Department of War’s actions and activities so long as they’re legal.” He also made clear this was not about politics, saying he only cared about getting the best system for warfighters. And when asked whether the federal cutoff was meant to damage Anthropic, he mostly waved it off, pointing to the company’s recent surge in revenue and valuation - and mentioning the Govt contracts are a small % of their revenue, In my opinion, he’s clearly ignoring that the designation of a supply chain risk would hurt the revenue a lot more than just a government contract
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
@NYCMayor “We found a bunch of people working hard and creating amazing things - and we’re about to steal their shit.” *Ecstatic smile* I really hope this ideology stays away from my state.
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Travis
Travis@tthomson·
Elon is going to win A.I.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Nine billion miles of driving data just became a chip. Tesla AI5 is finalized for production. The design files are at Samsung in Texas and TSMC in Arizona. The transistors are locked. There is no going back. Tape-out is the hardest gate in semiconductor engineering because everything before it is reversible and everything after it is silicon. How this particular chip was designed is the most interesting part. Nvidia builds general-purpose GPUs. They pack transistors into a full-reticle die, ship it with CUDA, and let customers figure out which operations matter. Blackwell B200 delivers 4.5 petaFLOPS at up to 1,000 watts. It runs any model for any customer. That generality is the moat and the tax. Every workload pays for circuits it never uses. Tesla designed AI5 backward. They started with 9 billion miles of FSD inference data and asked one question: where does the neural network waste cycles? The answer was softmax computation and quantization precision loss. Two specific mathematical operations that consume disproportionate silicon area and power in every general-purpose GPU on Earth. Operations that Nvidia cannot optimize away because other customers need those transistors for different workloads. Tesla hardened them. Burned custom quantization and softmax accelerator blocks directly into the die. Five times more efficient on those operations than any general-purpose equivalent. Then they added 10 times the raw compute and 9 times the memory capacity relative to AI4. The result: a single AI5 system-on-chip delivers roughly 5 times the useful compute of the current dual-chip AI4 configuration at an estimated 250 watts. Musk has framed a single AI5 as Nvidia Hopper class and dual AI5 as Blackwell class for Tesla workloads, at 3 to 5 times better power efficiency and roughly 10 times better performance per dollar. This is not a chip designed to compete with Nvidia. This is a chip designed to run one thing: the learned differentiable physics engine that emerged from 9 billion miles of camera observation. Every transistor serves that engine. No wasted silicon. No generality tax. The neural network wrote its own hardware. The chip goes to two foundries. Samsung in Taylor, Texas. TSMC in Arizona. Both American. Musk thanked both this morning and added: “It will be one of most produced AI chips ever.” Samples arrive late 2026. Volume targets H2 2027. In the same post, Musk confirmed AI6, Dojo3, and “other exciting chips” are in active development. The 9-month cadence is real. AI6 targets tape-out by December. Dojo3 restarts on the unified architecture after Musk shut down Dojo2 last August as an “evolutionary dead end.” Intel joined Terafab eight days ago for advanced packaging. The $16.5 billion Samsung deal runs through 2033. The chip that taped out this morning is not a product. It is the physical crystallization of 9 billion miles of learned physics into transistors optimized for the exact mathematical operations that physics requires. The software trained on the road. The silicon was designed from what the software learned. And the factory that will mass-produce it is being built in the same city where the cars that generated the training data roll off the line. The loop is closed.

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