johnmaher

@nickbarden @mapleleafs 4 wins , 17 losses since the Olympic break and their not tanking? 🤣🤣

"If fans are angry with that, then I respect that, but we will not tank." Why MLSE CEO Keith Pelley and the rest of the Maple Leafs organization aren't interested in tanking for a top-five pick in this year's draft: thehockeynews.com/nhl/toronto-ma…

@PeterPetrovic @danielfoch Laffer Curve ! Higher taxes lead to lower govt revenue, inverse can be true as well. One of the reasons socialism always runs out of other people's money

@danielfoch So if you are saying they know less taxes leads to growth. Why are we paying maximum taxes when we have the printer?

In case this isn’t clear: Less taxes on housing is a good thing This is a great example of how lower taxes means more economic growth. We should celebrate it. I’m not upset that it’s also a “bailout for developers” Frankly, we would not have seen much of this tax revenue anyways, because sales would not happen without the room to compress prices. So, you might as well get the economic activity.

Interesting. It’s not the Republicans saying this. It’s Muslims admitting it.

@Energy_Tidbits Their politics are so far apart it's a wonder Trump had any time for him. UK is in serious decline, putting people in jail for X posts that are far from hate language is a sign of creeping socialism, never a good thing!

"In for a penny, in for a pound" Starmer forgot that trying to be Trump's best friend meant that he had to go along with what Trump wanted. Trump tells UK can buy needed #JetFuel from US or "build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just TAKE IT. You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA won't be there to help you anymore....." Be interesting how Trump/Starmer plays out post Iran. #oott

@RedboxWire Ok match that with the destruction of the Karg Island pipelines, watch your economy collapse !

IRAN WARNS UAE: FUJAIRAH PORT AND KEY HORMUZ OIL PIPELINE COULD BE TARGETED IF ATTACKS CONTINUE

Taking down their ballistic missiles capabilities, ability to own nukes seem kinda important given their Death to America stance! It would be a far different world if Iran had nukes combined with ballistic missiles capable of hitting Europe and even further in time. This is a evil nation that slaughters their own people because of religion. Whistling past the graveyard not an option here.

Based on Trump’s latest post, here’s the victory some Americans died for and the rest of us will pay for with debt & inflation: the regime stays in power, grows even more hard-line, Iranians hate America even more, and oil prices stay permanently higher. Other than that, we win.

@Osinttechnical Pretty simple , knock out the power to Karg island and when they try to fix it , do it again. If the Strait is closed it will be closed for Iranian oil as well. China can work thru their storage, Iran's economy will collapse

Not included in this assessment, if the Iranians decide to keep shooting.

President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed -WSJ

@Michphil1998 Nobody can make the economics work to build a cross country west-east pipeline that only carries 200k bpd of oil to fill that gap

Why can eastern Canada import 4 million barrels of foreign oil a month that is not “decarbonized” but if Alberta wants a pipeline we must jump through hoops?

@FoodProfessor Dreams of a communist!

Mr. Lewis, The only way a grocery store could help consumers save 40% is by obtaining goods from suppliers at no cost. That’s essentially what food banks do—and they already exist.

Nope shopping with parents in the early 1960's and the operator opened and closed the doors manually, operated a swing handle switch up or down controlling the movement of the elevator which included lining up the floor of the elevator correctly. This in a four story department store

I think (hope?) a lot of these replies are from people who shopped at huge department stores where service personnel worked in automated elevators, assisting shoppers with finding things faster by asking what they were shopping for and then pressing the correct button and giving wayfinding directions. They weren’t manually operating a relay switch that made the elevator cab rise or descend and using their eyeballs to judge if the elevator cab was level with the floor or a trip hazard, right??

Nobody is skeptical of autonomous elevators because nobody alive today was even around to see a human elevator operator in real life before the last one got laid off. Automation is far safer.

@freep The players are saying to themselves too bad sucker you're the one that is going to get fired!

Detroit Red Wings 'somewhat embarrassed' as coach renews criticism freep.com/story/sports/n…

@gothburz Get a new hobby, wood working maybe, much better results 😉

I have placed 1,412 bets in three years. I know the exact number because I track them. I have a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet has columns for date, sport, bet type, odds, stake, result, and a column I added in November called "thesis at time of bet." The thesis column is the longest. Every bet has a thesis. That's the difference between me and a gambler. A gambler bets on feelings. I bet on information asymmetry. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. I started in 2023. Massachusetts legalized sports betting and DraftKings sent me $200 in free bets and the $200 felt like found money and found money doesn't count as money. That's not a fallacy. That's how money works when it arrives in your account with a green banner that says BONUS. I turned the $200 into $40 in eleven days. I deposited $500 more. I told myself the $200 was tuition. I was learning the market. The market is what I call it. Not "sports betting." The market. Like stocks. Like commodities. Like any other asset class where information is the edge. I read that on a podcast. I listen to fourteen podcasts about sports betting. Four of them are called "Sharp Action" or some variation. Sharp means professional. I'm not a professional. But I use the word sharp because it separates me from the squares. Squares are the people who bet on their favorite team. I bet on value. My lifetime return on investment is negative 31%. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. The model. I have an Excel spreadsheet I call The Edge. It has seventeen input variables. I built it over a weekend in February 2024 after a podcast guest said "the sharps all have models." The Edge factors in home-field advantage, rest days, travel distance, weather, injury reports, referee tendencies, and a variable I invented called "narrative momentum" which measures how much the media is hyping a team because I read that public money inflates the line and I can bet against public money. The Edge has recommended 340 bets. Those bets are 149-191. A 43.8% win rate. A coin flip is 50%. I have not stopped using The Edge. I have refined it. It's on version 7. Each version added variables. Version 7 has twenty-three input variables. Version 7 is 14-22 since I started it in January. A coin flip is still 50%. My brother Mike watches every game. Every Sunday he's on the couch with a beer and a bowl of chips and he yells at the TV and he's happy when his team wins and he's annoyed when they lose and then he goes to bed and wakes up Monday and goes to work. Mike does not have The Edge. Mike does not have a model. Mike does not listen to fourteen podcasts. Mike does not know what a closing line value is. Mike does not track anything. Mike has never used the word sharp. Mike has $46,000 more in his savings account than he did three years ago. I have $31,400 less. I don't think about Mike's number. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. The parlays. This is where it went wrong. Or this is where it went right but variance hasn't corrected yet. That's what I tell the Discord. The Discord is called Sharp Action. Eighty-six members. We share picks, discuss lines, post screenshots of wins. Nobody posts screenshots of losses. I have posted eleven screenshots. I have not posted screenshots approximately 400 times. Parlays are multiple bets combined. A two-leg parlay pays more than two individual bets. A five-leg parlay pays much more. A same-game parlay lets you bet on the same game five different ways. The apps push them. DraftKings sends me same-game parlay suggestions every morning at 10:47 AM. The notification is personalized. It says my name. It says "based on your betting history." My betting history is losing. They are suggesting I lose in new ways. The expected value of a parlay is negative 40% to negative 50%. I know that number. I learned it from a YouTube video called "Why Parlays Are a Scam." I watched the whole video. I agreed with everything in it. I placed a five-leg parlay the next morning. The math. In three years I have deposited $43,200 into betting apps. My current total balance across four apps is $11,800. That's a loss of $31,400. That's $871 a month. That's $201 a week. That's $28.71 a day. I spend more on sports betting per day than I spend on food. I told my girlfriend that once. I was trying to be funny. She didn't laugh. She asked how much I'd lost total. I said "it's not a loss, it's an investment in my edge." She asked what the return on the investment was. I said negative 31%. She said "that's a loss." I said it was unrealized. She said "you're not holding stock. The games are over. The money is gone." She was technically correct. But she doesn't understand the concept of lifetime ROI versus recent sample. She asked me to stop. I said I'd think about it. I switched to a different app. That's not the same as stopping. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. The state. Massachusetts legalized sports betting in January 2023. Thirty states have legalized since 2018. Americans wagered over half a trillion dollars in 2025. The NY Fed published a study last month. It found that credit card delinquency doubled for sports bettors under 40. Not increased. Doubled. The study said "the expansion of legal sports betting has had significant negative financial consequences for young borrowers." I am 29. I have $8,400 in credit card debt. The credit card debt is from deposits into DraftKings and FanDuel that I made when my checking account was empty. The deposits felt different on a credit card. They felt like borrowing against future winnings. I have not had future winnings. My credit score was 740 three years ago. It is 631 now. The apps know this about me. They know everything about me. They know I bet more on Sundays between 12 and 1 PM. They know I increase my stake after a loss. They know I favor underdogs in the fourth quarter. They know all of this and they send me promotions calibrated to the exact shape of my failure and I click them because the notification says BOOSTED ODDS and boosted odds feel like a gift. The gift is the trap. I know that. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. The bar. I was at a bar in October watching Thursday Night Football and a guy next to me was doing the same thing I was doing. Checking his phone. Checking the score. Checking his phone. He had a parlay. I had a parlay. His lost in the third quarter. He ordered another beer. He said "I had a system." He pulled out a bar napkin. He'd written the system on it. It was four variables and a flowchart drawn in pen. It was The Edge but worse. I looked at his napkin and I felt something I couldn't name. I felt like I was looking at myself from outside. Like I was watching a man at a bar with a napkin that he believed was a model and the napkin was the saddest thing I'd ever seen. I went home and opened The Edge. I added two more variables. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. I built an app. It's called ParlayOS. It tracks my bets, my model's predictions, my actual results, my deposit history, and my net P&L over time. I ran a backtest. I tested what would have happened if I'd followed The Edge perfectly for all 1,412 bets. I would have lost 27% instead of 31%. The model's improvement over random is four percentage points. A subscription to The Edge costs me nothing because I built it myself. But the time I've spent building and refining it across seven versions is approximately 600 hours. If I'd worked those hours at my job's overtime rate I would have earned $21,000. I added that to the spreadsheet. Then I deleted the column. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping. March Madness started this week. I've been studying the bracket for nine days. I have a model for March Madness. It's a separate model. It has its own spreadsheet. It factors in tempo, three-point rate, turnover margin, strength of schedule, and a variable called "chaos probability" which I made up. I filled out four brackets. I placed seven futures bets. I put $1,200 on a twelve-team parlay because the potential payout is $34,000 and $34,000 would erase two years of losses and I could show my girlfriend the screenshot and she would understand that the system works. The system has never worked. But the potential payout is $34,000. I'm not gambling. I'm handicapping.

@TheTorontoSun Saw Springsteen live once, he needs a studio to make that voice work, awful voice live , not impressed ! Over the hill now just looking for a headline to get him in the spotlight again!

Bruce Springsteen not scared of MAGA backlash over slamming Trump torontosun.com/entertainment/…

@DanAlbas Wow just when you think the Lib machine can't sink any lower they do!

Consequences? They are literally doing a $1775 fundraiser together this evening.

@Nick_Decap This world is full of whack jobs, most don’t spend their life trying to gain power over the majority and convince them they are actually normal. Guess it's better than picking up a gun as has been a problem lately with that niche club! Good write up !

The upshot: in a public setting like the NDP convention, Smith's ideology looks ridiculous. This is why trans activists focus on gaining control of the levers of power behind the scenes: establishing ideological control in institutions through workshops/struggle sessions. Embedding their ideology into law and policy, not by convincing the public they are right, but by lobbying behind closed doors. Once laws and policies are changed, enforcing public compliance through courts and tribunals. Smith may cut a ridiculous figure, but don't underestimate her. 9/9

🧵Alot of people are having a good laugh right now at the antics at the convention of Canada's New Democratic Party (the NDP). I particular, this woman, who has chaired the convention. Her name is Adrienne Smith, and while the clips may be funny, there is nothing funny about her agenda or the influence she wields. 1/9

@yonkojohn Air Canada is a public corporation with no controlling shareholders. Cdn gov't should have absolutely no say in the matter! Just BS that they would act like it's a crown corp! Typical politics from the Laurentian elites !

Why would Carney highlight the fact that the President of Air Canada didn't speak French? Was it really the French or was it Air Canada wasn't buying Brookfield Corps Green Jet fuel at double the cost of regular fuel? Who cares or even knew if the AC President spoke at all?

@JavierBlas @opinion But we were told !

COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@FirstSquawk Starmer is a embarrassment to the once proud UK. That country is in serious decline! Sad to see!

UK PM SIR KEIR STARMER ON IRAN CRISIS: “THIS IS NOT OUR WAR.”

@Ross__Hendricks Wouldn't he just restrict exports first?

WTI opens up at $103 ... how long until we get the next Trump TACO headline?

@barometerca Good stuff !

Markets continue under pressure. Once again, breadth based risk models have helped us build a defensive moat over the past several weeks. On our webcast Tuesday we discussed portfolio positioning and defensive tactics.