Rodney A. Lambert

$Pypl love that the CEO uses the rocket emoji…think stock is ready to run!!

@A_May_MD @cluelessbio @Clarksterh Seems like $ABVX stock is broken right now. Think BP will determine the final price. Just having a hard time understanding how much value was destroyed by this safety debacle. Is this a temporary blip that no one will remember or will the bidding dry up?

Accumulating/accelerating of cases with longer time is discussed in FDA review docs. It is a known criterion the fda uses to evaluate these risks and was part of the problem for JAKis. It’s also a good thing for $ABVX, since their longer term (5-7 years) P2 dataset shows no such time-dependent risk. Every angle I look at this from = no black box.

$ABVX seems to have (in the last hour or so?) quietly released a new corporate deck with 3 important slides at the end. All, in my opinion, providing strong new information showing that these cancer cases were unrelated to drug and equivalent to expected background noise. Most important is the slide on the 2 non-nonmelanoma skin cancers. BOTH of these were more indolent, low/intermediate subtypes of their respective cancer (prostate and breast). Not only does this mean that the cancers are less threatening, it also means that THEY ARE SLOWER GROWING CANCERS. Why is this particularly important? Because it means that the development of the cancers very (very) likely PREDATES THEIR ENROLLMENT IN THE TRIAL. Look into the doubling times of grade 2 (Gleason 7) prostate cancer and grade 2 NST breast carcinoma. These are slow-growing tumors that very likely existed before these patients ever even had a dose of obefazimod. That relates to another key finding on this slide - the prostate cancer case was identified via PSA screening at 8.5 months into the study (remember earlier is better). In the Guggenheim conference they had said it was confirmed at day 367...they must have been referring to the biopsy confirmation of the subtype, not PSA confirmation of the prostate cancer diagnosis. This new information speaks to an earlier diagnosis. The breast cancer patient was diagnosed even earlier than that! Only 6.8 months of Obe exposure. Also, these new slides give us actual information on the prior drug exposures - before this afternoon we knew that they were on some prior treatments, but we didn't know what...THE PROSTATE CANCER WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TO ***5*** DRUGS WITH LABELED CANCER WARNINGS BEFORE ENROLLING IN THE STUDY! 3 OF THEM HAD ***BLACK BOX WARNINGS*** FOR CANCER RISK! -Humira (black box) -Infliximab (black box) -Rinvoq (black box) -Entyvio (warnings and precautions) -Stelara (warnings and precautions) We also just got new info on the NMSC cases (which matter far less but which spooked the market anyway). How you can look at the details of these skin cancer cases and think they are related to the drug is beyond me (but then again, these details just got released - quietly, for some reason). First of all, ***ALL OF THE 4 50MG CASES OF NMSC OCCURED IN 6 MONTHS OR LESS!!! Again, too rapid to be reasonably assumed drug-related. The fact that they all happened in the first half of this study is actually extremely exculpating evidence for $ABVX. Other details: -4/5 were 60+ years old (STRONGLY associated with skin cancer risk) -3/5 had PRIOR SKIN CANCER ALREADY(!!!!!) -4/5 had prior exposure to other drugs that are known to increase skin cancer risk. Finally, they also added a slide discussing that some studies have shown the elevated risks of these cancers for UC patients at baseline. -~5x higher risk of prostate cancer in IBD patients -~2x higher risk of breast cancer in IBD patients Why did $ABVX add these 3 slides to the corporate deck randomly, silently, on a Friday afternoon? IDK. Legitimately good news in those slides! I'd have pressed released this info as soon as I had it, because the details really help alleviate the (already statistically misguided) concern that these cancers could've been caused by Obefazimod. Here's the link: ir.abivax.com/static-files/e…

@ipollit77 @seedy19tron This is a dumb question, couldn’t $ABVX just go for the lower 25mg dosage to avoid the BB warning? Delta is nearly the same as 50mg dosage with no clear signal of cancer?

@seedy19tron JAKs only increase the risk of cancer in patients at risk, such as those aged 60 and older. While their prop in the P3 is barely increasing, cancer cases are popping up at the higher dosage. I don't know if the FDA will be convinced if $ABVX simply declares them to be unrelated

***Free alpha*** $ABVX Part 3 Don't need to wait for mgmt Part 2 (will just confirm the below) but pooled all the relevant data to end the debate once and for all. 4 Snippets: 1. ALL the possible MoA related or drug related proof in one sheet tested against all metrics that Obe cannot and is not causing cancer (remember 2 pathways by which a drug causes cancer in humans) ^keep snippet 1 in mind when going over the below, because then you know the rest of the data is just filtering through statistical noise, but for the purpose of informing everyone completed the below 2. Pooled Malignancy analysis, w/ pt level data 3. LT EAIR. FDA methodology. ALL approved UC drugs except Velsipity and Skyrizi 180 mg have shown malignancy events in their Ph 3 maint trials. None carry malignancy specific boxed warnings outside the JAK class. Obe miR 124 moa is NOT in any kinase family no class to associate with 4. Apple to apple comp with other drugs - NMSC rate (separate clinical category, FDA convention) also note Obe pts had azathioprine/prior NMSC/JAK history. Conclusion NO BB! *Dysplasia is a UC surveillance finding, not cancer. UC patients have ~0.5-2% per year background dysplasia detection on surveillance.

@JackMan724444 @DeepSouthDoctor How do you arrive at those peak sales? KOL was cautious about positioning for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis (UC), with limited first-line uptake (~10-15%) versus stronger potential in later lines.

@DeepSouthDoctor Considering OBE will do 4 to 5 billion in peak sales and has patents out til 2039, I'd say $ABVX is stupidly undervalued. And thats not even taking into account if Crohns data hits, which is probably will

$ABVX - sold at $85, no shame in a 20% profit for a 1-day trade. While bullish on their lead drug, one of the things I find hardest to do is to value companies with potentially blockbuster drugs that have not yet come to market. At a $6.5B MC, doesn't seem under-valued to me.

@A_May_MD @biotech_jack @bioadvo Do you believe obefazimod will be the standard of care for UC someday? $ABVX

At worst $ABVX is a *more effective* Rinvoq without the need for lab monitoring and with a far superior safety label (even if it does get 1 black box bullet point). It’s objectively better than Rinvoq in every way even in the *worst* case scenario, and the JAKis do several billion in IBD already (peaks will be higher). That’s why I really really don’t understand the $ABVX price action…even if you *do* think the cancer risk leads to a black box….it’s *severely* oversold at these prices…the drug replaces JAK inhibitors…

@JackMan724444 @seedy19tron @sleepydragon01 Ph3 maintenance is the true test! Because you have responders and partial responders in this group vs. full remission population. And some responders were switched to double blind placebo.

@RodLambertCPA @seedy19tron @sleepydragon01 Seedy obviously is the goat with biotech but I agree with u. How could 3 year data released be much different than phase 3 maintenance. Must have something to do with placebo and trial design

If you’re just waking up $abvx is up 8.2% in $ terms from Fridays close in Paris. ~$132 , no news yet.

@seedy19tron @sleepydragon01 But don’t you think the 3-year OLE was another de-risking event for obe $abvx? So Friday’s data AH was bullish not inconsequential IMO. Obviously ph3 maintenance delta is still a huge binary.

@sleepydragon01 We already know that the effect deepens over time. Ph3 maint end point is 44w , not 144w so Friday AH inconsequential.

@seedy19tron Got to be the OLE data!

@CatPunksters Especially considering that study 108 incorporated endoscopic healing/maintenance as a required component. Endoscopic data provides objective, visual evidence of direct mucosal healing in the gut lining, rather than relying solely on subjective patient-reported symptoms. $ABVX

@JackMan724444 @biotech_jack Because broader Phase 3 population (induction responders, including partial ones) will show more attrition than pure OLE. Open label population was highly selected (ie already in clinical remission.) $abvx

@biotech_jack I mean how could phase 3 maintenance not be good if phase 2a/2b are ?

$ABVX The fact that Abivax is presenting new interim data from the open-label extension study (Phase 2a/2b) for ulcerative colitis (UC) alongside its quarterly results is a stroke of strategic genius. 1/

@JackMan724444 @BiotechCLin @seedy19tron Do you mean 35+ delta for the stand alone 50mg cohort? That’s too high of a bar for the ‘blended’ trial design. $abvx

@BiotechCLin If delta is 35 or over, the stock will be up massively.. @seedy19tron is predicting 35. We will see $ABVX

$ABVX 130 patients de-escalated to 25mg → 68% still in clinical remission at week 144. ITT/NRI. 80% completion rate. 7 years of clean safety. For the upcoming phase 3 maintenance data, delta forecast now improves from ~30pp to ~38pp based on my model.

@unemon1 Clearing the deck!

$ABVX … how Year looked like in Jan 7, 2026!

@seedy19tron $abvx expected delta for obe maintenance is 20% to 30%…is that blended dosage, or just the 50mg cohort? Seems like 25mg is unnecessary given obe safety profile. Don’t think doctors in practice will ever dose down patients to 25mg.

Okay stupid me , it’s AH tomorrow not PM $abvx apologies

@seedy19tron @DominickCampag Aren’t you concerned that the placebo maintenance remission rate will drift much higher than the low pbo floor established during induction? Thinking this because of the "enriched" patient pool of responders only.

@DominickCampag I’m very confident. Hard to put a number on it as so many variables but I get 33-35% when running the numbers

I’m no expert but could this be front running a potential oil supply overload? Iran and Russia sanctions get eased in the coming days , we’ve seen this regime likes to get a feeler of headlines before executing and easing of restrictions on both came up this week. Oil eases up, bond market takes a breather from circuit breaking territory and hopefully selfishly fuelled by good data at ASCO , a couple M&As and Q2 remaining positive catalysts $xbi out performs. The other clean explanation is someone with conviction that the Iran war premium is overstated and headlines will deescalate, which gets you to the same trade without assuming mnpi.

@DominickCampag @seedy19tron That’s a high bar..If delta is > 30%, obefazimod will be the undisputed first-line advanced oral treatment for Ulcerative Colitis (UC). Stock will moon and a bidding war will ensue IMO.

@seedy19tron What would you put the odds of $ABVX delivering a delta that is greater than 30%?

@unemon1 Just $JNJ trying to get better seats at the French Open

$ABVX .... France is not a Major hub for JNJ ... yet 2 weeks ago you see CEO and CEO ... + the whole Executive Team ... holding French Flags! Group visit to proof the French Government they really care about France .... Why do they need to do such a demonstration? ... So that an $ABVX deal does not get blocked? No news on this online FYI

@BIOTECHSCANNER Are you still bullish on Anaphylm and do we think it will receive FDA approval by 1Q27?

$AQST - Finally got a chance to listen to the earnings call and reading the presentation. I also noticed the debt refinancing. Overall the earnings call was as expected with the exception of AQST 108 being highlighted more than ever before and with good reason! Here are my thoughts on $AQST after the CRL. 1. I was very disappointed with the way management’s lack of awareness on the weakness of the human factor data. This totally blindsided me. If you go back to all my posts on AQST, I didn’t cover the human factor part once. It wasn’t even on my radar. Dan Barber also kept saying that the interactions he had with the FDA lead him to believe that Anaphylm would be approved. This is not true or that he was too optimistic. This was harmful to us as investors. So here we are back to square one. This CRL like any, is expensive, thus the debt refinancing. 2. I really like the new trial designs for both trials (HF and PK). The designs are very thorough and should be approved by the FDA to proceed. 3. The trials should be completed in several months. Thankfully these are not cancer trials. 4. Like I said earlier, Anaphylm is basically back to square one. It’s like none of the other trials meant anything to the FDA. The PK of Anaphylm will be evaluated and compared against epinephrine. I believe Anaphylm will pass with flying colors like before. 5. AQST 108 I have always thought that it has a better chance with atopic dermatitis than alopecia areata but if we can get both, it would be amazing. Atopic dermatitis is a very crowded market but AQST 108 brings a unique and first in class mechanism of action using topical epinephrine gel. This is very exciting. 6. No management is perfect. I believe they will get Anaphylm approved. If you have not sold you have not lost anything. I will look at the results of the trials carefully. Investing in biotech is tough. Patience is key. I will share what I will expecting from these trials as we get closer to the end of the trials.

@seedy19tron @Respekchemistry How about $PALI ? What will be the immediate stock reaction on $ABVX takeout?

@Respekchemistry $nktr will be up 20% on an $abvx takeout imho 😂

@unemon1 Wouldn’t the equity tranche include a risk premium, meaning a higher stock price valuation over and above the assumed buyout price. Just because even after a deal is officially announced, it could still, in theory, fall through?

The $ABVX royalty buyback math is too precise to be a coincidence? ‼️Deal incoming at 222.29 USD per share? ‼️ Let me walk through it: The setup: - Royalty cap: €175m - ABVX bought it back for just €77m - Structure: 50% cash / 50% equity - Balance sheet: €500m cash+ planning a raise in June 🇫🇷Red flag #1: Why pay in equity at all?🇫🇷 - ABVX had more than half a billion in cash. They did NOT need to issue shares. Royalty buyouts are almost always done in cash. When equity is used, a lock-up is standard. - Here? No lock-up. None. 🇫🇷Red flag #2: The NPV math🇫🇷 - If maintenance data reads out positive and the asset is totally de-risked, the NPV of those royalties is ~€115m. - Royalty holders received €77m headline. So they took a ~33% haircut on de-risked value… voluntarily. Why would sophisticated counterparties do that? 🇫🇷Red flag #3: The make-whole price🇫🇷 - Run the math on the equity leg: if ABVX gets acquired at ~€190 / ~$222 per share, the royalty holders — thanks to the unlocked equity component — receive exactly €115m total. The full de-risked NPV. They get made whole. 🇫🇷Red flag #4: The rumored LLY offer🇫🇷 - The rumored Lilly bid? ~$225 / €192 per share. - That is almost precisely the make-whole price. Cushion of ~1% above the threshold — exactly the spread you'd expect if the buyback was reverse-engineered from an indicative bid. ‼️Putting it together:‼️ Equity used despite no need for equity ✅ No lock-up despite using equity ✅ Headline price implies haircut UNLESS stk rerates ✅ Stock re-rate price = rumored takeout price ✅ Each fact alone is explainable. Stacked together, they describe a structure where royalty holders accepted "cash today + optionality on a known catalyst" instead of full cash value. ‼️The open question: when?‼️ Coincidence? Possibly. But the numbers aren't approximate — they're exact. And the structure does work royalty buybacks normally don't need to do.

@A_May_MD @bioadvo @ScribblesTay Any buyout premium (above EV) once the BO is announced would have to be shared among more equity shareholders, if there is an equity raise. Isn’t that the issue?

@bioadvo @ScribblesTay Yes given that deals are actually made on an enterprise value basis not market cap), people often dramatically overestimate the real impact of stock-based financings. Maintenance+Raise does not concern me or adjust my expectations for what will ultimately happen with $ABVX.

$ABVX degen traders dumping the stock on a CNBC article saying exactly what I’ve been saying since the trial hit back in July, and what was already blatantly obvious from the earnings release yesterday. WAITING FOR MAINTENANCE DATA is the ideal negotiating leverage. Read the quote below from the CEO. It could not be more obvious to me that this is the correct strategy. Catalyst wait times don’t get a lot shorter than 3 months in biotech, btw. CHILL. cnbc.com/2026/03/24/abi…

@unemon1 @user489202848 But Abivax was not added/removed in the March 2026 reviews for rebalancing. EURONEXT rebalancing does not explain a 20x magnitude outlier in volume spike.

@user489202848 Nothing burger! It was EURONEXT rebalancing announced on March 12 or 13 and carried out Friday 20 at close!