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How to print 12,500% return in 8 hours.
Introduce: Gensyn x Polymarket
1. The Gensyn sale mechanics are clear:
The clearing price (matched price) is lowered until there’s enough money to sell all 300M tokens; everyone who bid at or above that price buys tokens at that same price, and anyone who bid lower gets their money back. Getting refund is the most important part.
The current clearing price is $0.0247, so whales can ape millions under this threshold to ensure their capital won't be filled.
2. From on-chain analysis, here are the top 3 bidders' prices:
Whale 1: Funds from a $23M wallet! 0x408505ec4bB812B9B649a653390a7b683CEa3D54
Bidding amount: $500k
Bidding price: $0.018 (Safe)
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0x986bdaac4…
Whale 2: Fresh wallet directly funded from Binance
0x48ad5b1D67B4fEbb73DC8CE72D61d82079136Fc9
Bidding amount: $1M
Bidding price: $0.02 (Safe)
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0xcfa265418…
Whale 3: 0x408505ec4bB812B9B649a653390a7b683CEa3D54
Bidding amount: $500k
Bidding price: $0.018 (Safe)
Tx:
etherscan.io/tx/0x986bdaac4…
Special thanks to @Andrey_10gwei, who enlightens me about on-chain analysis.
3. With those "test" practices, as a manipulator, my flow is:
1. Borrow stable from Aave at 4% APR ~ 0.01% per day.
2. Bid on Gensyn at a way lower than the current clearing price.
3. Sweep the liquidity on the "Yes" side on Polymarket.
Let's calculate the R:R, taking the current bid is only $10M.
>50M: to borrow $40M, to pay interest $4k per day, to buy $40k "Yes" share at 8% to win $500k -> R:R = 125
>70M: to borrow $60M, to pay interest $6k per day, to buy $10k "Yes" share at 2.5% to win $400k -> R:R = 65
>100M: to borrow $90M, to pay interest $9k per day, to buy $4k "Yes" share at 1.2% to win $320k -> R:R = 35
It's a pure money-printing, an absolute cinema, or whatever we call, outcome. Only 8 hours left, let's buy some popcorn 🍿



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