Peter

$ASTS: The Global head of network infrastructure at Meta just visited the AST factory "i look forward to the collaboration." - Luiz Abud (VP at AST) 👀 Probably nothing

$ASTS Recap of yesterday's quarterly update and management call. I haven't reviewed any of Spacemob's analysis yet so some of this may seem repetitive. Overall progress of building + launching satellites looks solid. There has been some ambiguity about the design, build, design, and launch plans/cadence introduced by regulatory filings. I feel like that has been mostly put to rest by management's commitment for 5 launches in the next 6-9 months. There's a very slight chance they're lying, but I think that's incredibly unlikely- if there was going to be a significant design change/related delay, they would have announced it yesterday. Increased per-sat cost of about 10% (from $19m to $21m) is very reasonable and essentially a rounding error. I'd be worried if this creeps up to be > $40m/sat, but I think we're very very far from there. No surprises on cash position or burn rate, everything seems to be largely on pace. The ExIm funding maybe a bit slower than implied in the previous call, but overall on track and seems >70% likely they land something. I think they're being more explicit about the loan counterparties which is a nice nugget. ATM announcement was strategically smart, communicatively deceptive, and implicitly clever. They deliberately did not do the ATM 8k/PR announcement after hours, they did not include any mention of it in the quarterly update. This is strategically smart because it would have overwhelmed the positive news. ATM's cause investors to "freak out" somewhat irrationally. At the same time, to offer a semblance of transparency they mentioned it on the conference call during the financial update (and the stock immediately fell $1 in 30 seconds). This "manages the impact" of the headline much better (I'm getting flashbacks to the Google/ATT $5.50 convert followed by $4.00 equity raise from 2024. They learned!). I think being careful to manage this disclosure delicately is a bit deceptive but the correct decision (keeps the algos away from beating up your stock). I was surprised (and at first annoyed) by the ATM announcement. If they need capital, I think they probably could do another convertible debt issuance, which I think is a better/cheaper method of raising capital given the high level of volatility in the stock. So why not raise another $500m convert and opt for an ATM instead? This is where the implicit cleverness comes in... I think they're doing it because they don't actually need the capital- at least not immediately. Whereas in previous years the company was clearly desperate to fund their build/operations, the situation today genuinely warrants having optionality to raise capital a) if/when you need it, b) if/when the price is right. Their balance sheet gives them a lot more credibility now. Raising a $500m convertible note deal today could easily overcapitalize the company if ExIm comes through and more vendor prepayment of strategic investors come in. They also know their stock is subject to high volatility, and that they have some potentially very big announcements on the horizon. If retail pumps the stock to $50+ they want the flexibility to sell stock into that- it's cheaper than issuing a convert struck at $35. Note that the stock fell $1+ the following morning when the ATM 8K was released. This is the type of price action that they wanted to keep away from the stock during the call. Well played. $20M DIU deal seems pretty meaningful to me. Not because the amount matters, but because they're able to secure any kind of revenue-producing contract at all, for a very _barely functional_ constellation of ~5 satellites. Barely functional isn't derogatory, it's just a reflection of the state of progress. They're either showing very positive deal making prowess (being able to sell an alpha product), or they're showing amazing tech (DIU will pay for a barely working product because it's so good). Realistically, I think it's BOTH and that's why it's meaningful. Investor Q&A hosted a slate of retail investor questions. One question was asking about Golden Dome. This is important because these are deliberately pre screened and picked by the management team. Although there must have been dozens of people sending this question in, they could have easily dodged it and chosen not to answer it. They're pretty transparently saying that they're actively involved in Golden Dome projects (bids), and they are confident they'll win something. Maybe they're wrong, but that's what they're signaling here. Also note that the answers are pre-scripted, not impromptu. Scott's follow up answer to the question is talking about budgeting procedure, which is implicitly reminding investors that its too early to be announcing any awards related to Golden Dome... But soon. Everything in the quarterly update is consistent with the strategic direction that the company set in the past 6-12 months. They're in aggressive "we're playing to win" mode, and I love to see it. This isn't the time to be cautious. The prize that they're chasing is huge and they have their foot on the gas pedal. I think the risk/reward in this situation is heavily in favor of the investor. Currently 7% of my portfolio.

🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨 The stock came alive. With so many developments, all you can really do is just dig in. That, and more, on this week's Weekly...

All this price suppression in $ASTS is only setting the stage for an even crazier next leg up