@Vvtentt101 Can I get you prediction for Seoul temp tomorrow?
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DegenPirates
628 posts
DegenPirates
@PiratesPredict
Sailing the frothy seas of prediction markets. Plundering the data for truth, transparency, and hopefully smarter decision-making. Join the crew!
On Queens Annes Revenge Garrr! Tham gia Ağustos 2025
272 Đang theo dõi111 Người theo dõi
Few people realize how underutilized these markets are
Single weather markets clear $100k-$300k in daily volume
The mispricing exists for one reason the crowd guesses. Professional forecast data (HRRR, AROME, ICON) is free and public
Updated every hour. Nobody checks it
That's the entire gap
vvtentt@Vvtentt101
THIS EASY POLYMARKET APPROACH IS DISREGARDED BY THE MAJORITY Top traders don't predict the weather They trade the gap between the prediction and the market price How it works: >>Take the forecast (HRRR, ICON, AROME) >>Compare it to current market odds >>If they disagree you have an edge >>Enter before the market corrects >>Exit when it does Why these 3 models specifically: HRRR updates every single hour. Most traders are watching GFS which updates every 6 AROME updates 5x per day WINDY. at 1.3km resolution it sees what global models miss ICON outperforms global competitors for complex terrain and convective storms The edge isn't predicting weather. The edge is knowing model schedules better than other traders You check the model run That's the entire difference These models update constantly. Most traders never check them
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The @polymarket weather market is getting too stretched now
As we speak:
- 37 cities
- spread over 6 days now
Killing for liquidity, and tough to trade now. Especially when you're focussed on the NO side, like myself.
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@Vvtentt101 This was hilariously wrong, post more so we
Can counter trade please
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The market is pricing 14°C in Seoul at just 12¢. AccuWeather says that's exactly where it lands tomorrow
Someone is wrong
Trade Volume: $103,000
Current odds:
> 13°C - 34%
> 12°C - 27%
> 11°C - 17%
> 14°C - 12%
Historical April highs in Seoul sit at 13-14°C. The market reflects this but stops short. 14°C should be trading at 30%+ if external forecasts were priced in. They aren't
My move: Long 14°C Yes (12¢). Asymmetric upside, model backed
This trade idea has an extremely high level of risk, so don't copy my moves
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@prerichguy He’s mostly an arb trader, copying him would be a terrible idea. Onto the next slop post please
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HOW MUCH CAN YOU MAKE FROM SHANGHAI WEATHER?
that thought hit my gambler brain, so i had to test it
here’s the setup:
- april 9, 13:52 local time → 27°C rn
- daily peak usually hits between 14:00–17:00
- data from wunderground (pudong airport station)
after digging into top weather traders, i picked one from the top 10:
[@neobrother?r=lfc#khRzdiV" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@neobrother?r=…]
today he’s in on:
29°C or higher: yes @ 6¢ → $50
30°C or higher: yes @ 2.1¢ → $100
my entries were worse, but still. if it hits, the upside is solid
if you wanna try copying him, there’s an app (via @trycoinpilot): [refer.coinpilot.com/f333dd]
$10 free after $100 volume!
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@MuddyRC @StandDOTtrade has pulse, discover and live feed. That works really well for me
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This is why I can see why Shanghai's weather is already beating other cities in terms of quantity
The GFS prediction is 18°C. The ECMWF prediction is 22°C. The difference between these two predictions will give you an advantage
The China Meteorological Administration gives you an update before the odds at Polymarket adjust themselves
This period which takes about 20 minutes or 40 minutes - is where you earn money
Only during this transitional regime do the forecasts of GFS and ECMWF diverge. By 2 to 4 degrees each day
It is recognizing which prediction is lagging
which station publishes its predictions first
in which time zone does your edge expire
vvtentt@Vvtentt101
WHY SHANGHAI HAS THE HIGHEST TRADING AMOUNT IN POLYMARKET WEATHER? 1> Ideal for arbitrage Spring in Shanghai, as transitional weather, results in model differences GFS & ECMWF by 2-4 degrees. That's how arbitrage takes place between true odds and market prices 2> Local source advantage China Meteorological Administration has faster updates than Polymarket 3> Resolved through Wunderground ZSPD Station posts hourly observations. While Asians trade, the Europeans sleep And they make money every day from this. Up to $1,000 and even more Weather has many facets
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DegenPirates đã retweet
Good morning @Polymarket #weather prediction.
More isnt better! Your brackets are so off in many Citys.
Cant you just pay a Community member to help with the Brackets and just do 3 days in advance Maximum to avoid this.
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@de1lymoon Man, if I look at every slop post about this wallet this guy has had 10 different careers.. and left them all to make a fraction of his salary on poly
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An atmospheric science professor quit his job and started trading weather on Polymarket
first month: +$49,641
Entry prices: [4¢, 4¢, 4¢, 7.4¢] He buys outcomes the crowd gives less than 4% chance
Because his entire career was reading the models that say otherwise
How it works:
> GFS/ECMWF forecast updates every 6 hours
> he reads it like he taught students to read it for 30 years
> finds where the model says 70% but Polymarket says 4c
> buys thousands of shares at 4 cents each
> waits for resolution
> $116 becomes $2,903
Copy any trader's strategy starting from $10 → @deilymoon" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@deilymoon
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I saw a very suspicious looking french 🥖 dude today around the airport at Paris. 🤔🧐🤨
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@TheGreekTrader @Eurovision @EurovisionNewZ How do you know about the “order in from him to buy $42k more”?? How do you know the limit order belongs to him?
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Someone has $185,000 on Finland to win Eurovision 2026.
If Finland wins, that's $328,000 in profit.
And there's still an order in from him, to buy $42,000 more.
Is Finland a lock?
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First I was skeptical regarding the new fees on #polymarket But the fees are lower than expected, and if you trade anyway with many limit orders, then you can earn bonus money. Even without focusing on it, I made $15 of maker's rebate, nice!
Join here to earn aswell: polymarket.com/?r=HondaCivic
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@de1lymoon I know the account, the owner and the markets. Everything about your post is disingenuous.
Stop selling hopium to the masses for a few X bucks
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A CNN meteorologist quit his job, and started trading on the weather markets
First month: $37k
1,846 trades. Biggest win: $4,031. PnL curve straight line up
He's doing the same thing he did on camera, reading forecasts
His best trades are insane:
$23 → $3,438 (Seoul 11°C NO at 0.3c +14,610%)
$20 → $2,770 (Hong Kong 28°C at 0.7c +13,533%) $108 → $2,111 (Seoul 12°C at 3.2c +1,853%)
$333 → $3,678 (Seoul 7°C at 8.5c +1,001%)
$507 → $4,538 (Seoul 11°C at 5.5c +794%)
Start copy-trading any trader even with $10 → @deilymoon" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@deilymoon
Look at those entry prices: 0.3c, 0.7c, 3.2c outcomes the market gave less than 1% chance
He knew they were 60-80% likely because he spent 10 years reading the same models on TV
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Last night, I prayed to the Weather Gods for that +0.1°C at Seoul airport. They heard me. 🙏☀️
From 10c to the promised land. Amen.
Happy Easter to all! 🐣🌷
@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade
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DegenPirates đã retweet
@Rainmaker1973 This and a few other beach landing vehicles were affectionately known as “the funnies”
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BREAKING: The only toilet on Artemis II is currently malfunctioning.
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@Eltonma @securezer0 You should have received some rebates now. Do they look like a good amount considering potential fees you may incur?
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@securezer0 I think my rebate still will be more than fees but I am not sure about it anyways
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Polymarket new fees could make markets less liquid because they punish market makers trying to offload inventory in the event of a single side fill
Market makers splits USDC at 50c
Places resting orders at 51.5c & 48.5c
Get filled at 48.5c, concerned about a big directional shift, want to offload other side
- Lose on the sell
NOW: Taxed a ~1.5% selling fee
maker rebate of 20% of your fill is insulting when 40% is going to an X AI slop poster
The least profitable trading strategy on Polymarket just got less profitable
EltonMa made $70k in the last 2 months, in the same time he'd of paid $18k in fees (based on average fee, if fee switch was enabled for all markets)
Polymarkets trade history API is max 3100 trades, cant get full stats (fix please), but cant imagine it'd be much better
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