
CrocoSight
118 posts

CrocoSight
@CrocoSight
Welcome to CrocoSight. PE, PB, PS. No market noise. https://t.co/AsAjYUMSpy



Adobe $ADBE. The clearest test of the "AI eats software" narrative on the entire market. Two charts tell the whole story. Over the last five years: – Adobe's forward earnings have more than doubled. A clean, almost straight line up. Over 110%. – Adobe's forward P/E has collapsed from around 50x to about 15x. Read that again. The business doubled its earnings. The market cut what it's willing to pay for those earnings by roughly two-thirds. The result? A stock that has gone nowhere while the company underneath it has never been stronger. The reason is a single narrative. AI eats software. The fear that generative tools will commoditize Photoshop, Illustrator, and the entire creative suite into oblivion. Maybe. It's a real risk, and worth taking seriously. But look at what the numbers and management are actually doing. Earnings keep climbing. Margins remain enormous. And Adobe is buying back its own stock aggressively, the clearest signal a management team can send that they think the market has it wrong. The valuation is now as low as it's been since 2013. What happened in 2013? Adobe was pioneering the subscription model that the entire software industry would later copy, the shift that turned it into one of the great compounders of the following decade. The last time it was this cheap, it was about to begin its greatest run. History doesn't repeat. But here's the question worth sitting with. When a great business doubles its earnings and the market still cuts its multiple by two-thirds, one of two things is true. Either the narrative is right, and the business is about to be destroyed. Or the narrative is wrong, and you're being handed a quality compounder at a price that only shows up once a decade. The market has already voted. The only question is whether it's right.

Update: It's been 101 days since Michael Burry publicly went long on Adobe $ADBE It's down -26% since







Price to Sales Ratio (TTM Sales) SpaceX: 119 Palantir: 63 Broadcom: 25 AMD: 23 Lam Research: 21 NVIDIA: 20 Micron: 20 Applied Materials: 16 Tesla: 15 Intel: 11 Google: 10 Apple: 10 Microsoft: 9 Oracle: 8 Cisco: 8 Netflix: 7 Meta: 7 Amazon: 3.5 S&P 500: 3.5

How long do you think $SOFI will take to reach $20?


























































