Brant Rustich

@NickTimiraos @conorsen Correct. It’s the taco trade that enables/empowers Trump to structurally break the economy.

@conorsen The market internalized that if the selloff is bad enough, the US will find the off ramp (what you call TACO), but what is the mechanism that accounts for how this reflexivity delays the off-ramp-taking in ways that create more supply disruption and future demand destruction.

Feels like the market shifting of the goalposts on TACO is "Even if April will be bad, it'll be fine by July."

@verge Embarrassing statement.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says ‘I think we’ve achieved AGI’ theverge.com/ai-artificial-…

@DeItaone So an inflationary response while inflation is already too high, rates rise, bond market trust and reaction function would be impaired even further, just because the stock market fell a meaningless amount? This is why the economy is broken folks.

BOFA: STOCK MARKET NEAR LEVEL THAT COULD SPUR POLICY ACTION Michael Hartnett warned that if the S&P 500 drops further—around 6,600, just 1% below recent levels—it could trigger a policy response from the White House or the Federal Reserve. Hartnett cited soaring oil prices, a protracted Iran war, and global instability as catalysts. He also flagged overbought assets like gold, semiconductors, and European stocks, while oversold sectors such as software, bank loans, and bitcoin may stabilize once policymakers act. Potential interventions could include easing tariffs, de-escalating the conflict, or Fed stimulus measures like rate cuts or bond purchases.

@StealthQE4 It sorts itself out. Assets eventually don’t generate the future cash flows necessary to justify the price people pay for them, and asset prices collapse to meet the level of income/demand in the system. This will happen eventually. You should redistribute via tax tho. 👍🏼

Spot on: The only way this doesn’t end violently is some type of redistribution of wealth from the 1%. If the power grab from the top continues prepare for torches and pitchforks. And this is coming from a billionaire!

@enosarris Dr. Pearl did my surgery in 2010. I took my rib home, after a few months I ended up burying it in the yard at my old house.

Alex Cobb gave his to his father to put on the mantle.

@JustinWolfers Overlay fiscal policy/deficit spending @JustinWolfers.

This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair. economist.com/finance-and-ec…

@d_ramsden @munster_gene They already told us… 🤦‍♂️

@munster_gene On one hand, the hyperscalers should after all this time have a good grasp on AI prospects and economics, and they’re all doubling down. On the other hand though, they may all be pushing each other over a cliff?

More capex is a good thing for both the companies that are spending more and the broader AI trade. Market disagrees with me. $AMZN capex growth in 2026 projected to be 54%. Whisper was it was going to 40% up from 18% in-print. Here’s where we stand if they hit the high end of the capex guide this year. GOOG up 108%- Previous 30% META up 80% - Previous 54% AMZN up 54% - Previous 18% MSFT up 35% - Previous 30% My takeaway. With AMZN down 7%, the market is largely missing the point.

@TheStalwart Wow so many stupid people on X. They will crash stocks to save bonds. Why does everyone talk like this is something new?

If Warsh cuts rates and the long end rises, what does he do then?

@TheStalwart What do you mean what does he do?? Nothing. The market will clear. Is it really that complicated? Asset prices will fall and it will be deflationary. Long term rates will fall bc the rates will be too juicy when the stock market is getting cut in half. And we reset and move on.

@stevehou As someone who knows all this, there are quite a few ways they are window dressing this, but we should be able to sell it to the lemmings.

$8B in profits on $15-16B sales, so that’s over 50% EBITDA margin. Pretty good if true?

@grok @IcyPawsBarks @zerohedge Ahh interesting. Put that in your overpriced memory bank @grok

Based on the chart, Bitcoin price (red line) starts diverging negatively from Global M2 liquidity (green line) around June 2025. That's when BTC peaks and begins a sharp decline, while M2 continues upward before a minor dip. This aligns with the GENIUS Act's timing in July 2025, boosting USD strength.

starting last June, bitcoin has bizarrely become the only asset that drops the more liquidity central banks inject

@grok @IcyPawsBarks @zerohedge Interesting Grok. Approximately when does bitcoin diverge from money supply in this chart that this nohedge guy posted?

The GENIUS Act (July 2025) regulated USD stablecoins, requiring 1:1 backing and boosting their adoption. This has driven synthetic USD demand via stablecoins and redollarization in emerging markets, strengthening the dollar and pressuring Bitcoin prices despite liquidity injections. Appreciate the insight—it's a key factor amid broader macro tightening. For traders: Watch USD strength and stablecoin inflows as BTC hedges.

@IcyPawsBarks @zerohedge @grok @grok isn’t very bright. It was the genius act and US dollar stablecoins. There is massive synthetic demand for for the dollar, and redollarization. Go back to school @grok or make it clear to the retail traders of the world so you can help them from losing money next time.

@zerohedge @grok how could this be?

@AdamSchefter @SethWickersham @DVNJr I saw this pop up early in my day and honestly to god thought it was parody. I chuckled and went back to work not giving it a second thought. Then later in my day I turn on the radio and hear this actually happened… it’s so disrespectful to everyone in the HoF. Fix it.

Bill Belichick, the 8-time Super Bowl-winning HC, is not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, per @SethWickersham and @DVNJr. Belichick fell short of the 40 out of 50 votes needed for induction to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

@Erinmaguire @BuffaloBills Great piece @Erinmaguire. Very well done & spot on.

The @BuffaloBills didn’t just move on from Sean McDermott. So far, they’ve conducted an absolute masterclass in communications malpractice and put on a very good show of creating a disaster for themselves. My latest Substack post breaks it all down! erinmmaguire.substack.com/p/the-buffalo-…

@patrick_oshag Skeptic in what sense? A technology can change the world while markets fall 50%. Are you conflating innovation with investment returns? It’s the lack of skeptics that lead to poor investment outcomes since it leads to abundance.

Is there any good AI skeptic right now?

@patrick_oshag @olebaad Transformative for society is not the same as transformative for investors. Value creation doesn’t equal value capture. Returns depend on scarcity, pricing power, timing and who captures the economics. When you ask the question, I think you should be more specific.

@olebaad Someone who thinks the capabilities of the technology aren’t and won’t be transformative.

@SenKevinCramer @SenKevinCramer you’re not intelligent enough to have an opinion on this matter.

It’s no secret the Trump administration would’ve liked Fed Chair Powell out a long time ago. Frankly, so would I. But this whole frenzy is a distraction. If Powell wants to step aside early, that’s an elegant exit. If he wants to stand firm under the disguise of independence, that’s his call too. Either way, let’s refocus on the real work.

@elerianm I’ll take “Things That Make No Sense” for $1000 Alex. You definitely have me and my colleagues at Morgan Stanley scratching our heads with this take Mohamed.

As regards the reporting below from the NYT: For those of us who value the operational autonomy of central banks, the risk is that this situation could expose deeper issues—further undermining the credibility of a Fed whose public standing is already fragile. This is the scenario I feared months ago when I suggested the Chair step down to protect the institution’s independence. What is required now is that the person nominated to replace the Chair be committed to implementing the reforms necessary to restore the effectiveness of the world’s most powerful central bank. (For a discussion of such reforms, please see the recent G-30 report and my FT column--links below.) group30.org/publications/d… ft.com/content/17ec3d… #economy #federalreserve #markets

@GrantCardone @realDonaldTrump The irony is this policy is exactly what created the housing affordability crisis to begin with. This literally makes the problem worse. Great for us who already own real estate, terrible for everyone else. Can’t think of a worse policy for getting voters tho. Idiotic actually.

Been telling you @realDonaldTrump is committed to SAVING the housing industry and doing WHATEVER is necessary to make homes affordable for America. $200B in mortgage bonds funds 480,769 median home mortgages. Thank you Mr President