
Toby
558 posts

Toby
@bloomt
Investor. Analyst at Albert Bridge Capital, Columbia MBA. Former international traveler. Posts do not constitute investment recommendations.
USA Beigetreten Nisan 2008
1.6K Folgt402 Follower

@compound248 @TomSmith839 Run rate is near meaningless for these partnership business models. First year of Whoop is free for Chase Reserve members. Similar model to $YOU.
Revenue is definitely getting juiced this year by these partnerships.
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@DannyOcean555 @stoic_point Delta has a partnership despite exiting the stake - free for top-tier then $40 discount ($169/yr) for plebes. Suggests YOU exists alongside the biometric.
on Amex, the old rumor was 50/50 split. Is this perk really worth >10% of annual fee?
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@bloomt @stoic_point Right, that was my point at the end of my comment (rant).
I don’t know A. The #s and B. If ppl would switch/DAL’s ability to scale this
Also worth noting DAL (as far as I can tell) exited its stake in YOU in Q3ish 2024.
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YOU
What's the latest assumption of the actual Amex exposure (# of members) &/or effective rebate to Amex?
My Charlie-from-Always-Sunny-insane-person "analysis" leans towards 3M members, or about 40% of YOU's base?
Separately-
Amex, ofc represents large customer concentration risk, but doubtful they'd want to end the soon-to-be-renewed partnership (nice, easy perk for Amex customers & YOU gets top of funnel that translates great & improving economics)
I'd initially thought CLEAR was in an arms race w/ TSA (& to a lesser degree certain legacy airlines) to continuously iterate offer the fastest, lowest friction service (moving to Touchless, more recently to eGates, etc.)-
This is still true, but CLEAR's real advantage is just being a pay-to-play fast lane (in enough airports/travel scenarios that members find value), so it always has an edge vs plebe TSA (YOU has some structural advantages, e.g. eGates that expedite the security process, but eliminate a human position. TSA, as largely a jobs program, can't easily match this)-
The above assumes CLEAR does not oversell/go past capacity (anecdotally, I don't think this is a material risk ATM). Though, again, worth noting CLEAR is one of a small group of companies with truly negative network effects (more people = longer lines = objectively worse XP)
YOU's done well in the public markets following a tough 2021-vintage heady IPO reset.
But if the company struggles/growth stalls, I'd be curious if AXP would be interested in buying them.
Without knowing the true economics, would argue (read: an M&A banker could pitch):
1. Many members are already Amex customers & the remaining are likely ideal target customers (travelers, higher earning, etc.)
2. Expand airport footprint alongside the lounges >> Amex becomes more & more synonymous/crucial for air travel >> faster security at scale = huge differentiation vs other cards
3. Keeps a lid on CLEAR members & ensures lanes remain fast / value prop stays intact.
Cliffs: I still don't understand this thing. Can't decide if it's *less* attractive as a long or a short.


Danny Ocean@DannyOcean555
YOU Anecdotally, I know people who have joined/reactivated CLEAR memberships So- chances YOU reports above consensus users adds in Q4, this is incorrectly extrapolated fwd + ignores high likelihood these users churn in H1? TLDR: I never understood this biz. When will it crack?
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@DannyOcean555 @stoic_point But how many of those Amex members are Delta FF's who will just switch to the airlines biometric lanes?
Roughly a third of the 3M? Cuts the value to amex by a similar amount once all big airports get it.
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AFAIK, the still very limited/new eGates eliminate TSA until you're literally in security (with the exception of vague supervisory roles)
Is the reliance on an amicable TSA relationship a major risk? For sure.
But I haven't seen any evidence of this changing w/ the admin (the acting TSA head actually presented / sent a note to the relevant House committee yesterday that extolled public-private partnerships) & would believe that CLEAR's mgmt (who frankly seem very competent) are super on top of this relationship
I just don't know how much power TSA has re CLEAR vs other vested parties (DHS parent, local). TSA being upset because it's added work (not sure what that means) is a tough thing to see overriding shared economics from YOU
From a political angle- this isn't a great populist issue. Optically, it appears you're giving the most hated & mocked govt agency more $. And spending political capital to target this niche service (expedited security) that most Americans likely aren't aware of/care about seems like a waste.
Again, I'm not close to the name & certainly could be wrong. But TSA blowback worries me less than some sort of unfavorable redrawn Amex deal or TSA/airline competition.
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Looks like a new $tmdx short thesis about to drop.
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil
The revolution in organ transplants is here thanks to gene editing. A 62-year-old man on dialysis needed a new kidney. Doctors implanted him with a pig's kidney that had been given 69 edits to be human-compatible. He immediately stopped needing dialysis.
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Twice in the last 12 years, those administrations promulgated multi-thousand-word regulations defining the word “showerhead.”
Some people still care about the english language whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
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@MadsCapital Are we just going to ignore Druck calling higher rates, dollar, energy the "3 death knells markets" 46 minutes in?
Current markets look like that too. Only difference is an accomodative fed (for now).
youtu.be/-5Weeox0Xus?si…

YouTube
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@ToffCap Have to back out acquisitions and look at organic gross profit change when comparing these companies.
Azelis and IMCD did -6% and -8% respectively in Q1. Each only reported flat after getting +7% from deals
BNR Specialty down 10% (-8.3% cFX with less than 2% from M&A)
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Brenntag $BNR today once again reasserted itself as the big dumb idiot brother of the chemical distributors.
Look at the numbers below. Sure there's pricing pressure, but these are very large jumps in the wrong direction.
-23% yoy on Specialties in Q1? I mean, Azelis $AZE was at -7% and $IMCD at -15% (incl. FX headwinds!).
The results once again show Brenntag's issues. The model worked fine at small scale, but there's simply too little flexibility at a larger scale.
But that doesn't mean that a split is operationally a good thing (though might be for the stock price - at least in the short term).
$BNR was just to lazy with the integration (CRM / IT) of all its past acquisitions and is now way behind the curve.

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@AlbertBridgeCap There should be a surcharge for ordering online.
And better for Starbucks to get you buying from the cashier. Better chance for selling other items and a tip.
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Toby retweetet

Today I'm launching the Hat Tip Podcast, where my goal is to transform outstanding essays into compelling audio-video narratives.
Episode 1 features @AlbertBridgeCap's classic "Stay in the Game".
Thank you Drew for allowing me to feature this magical story on episode 1. It's among the most moving things I've ever read, and I'm so honored to be able to share it.
Hat tip to @morganhousel, who shared the essay on Twitter a couple years ago—without Morgan, I doubt I would have found it.
cc @maxredeemed and @KennyKennyMoe3
---
A little context on the show:
Most of the greatest writing ever produced is still… just text.
But it doesn't have to be this way.
New frontiers and mediums are quickly emerging. Imagine what David Foster Wallace's "This Is Water" could look and sound like in a world of DALL·E 4, Sora 2, Udio, Descript, and other tools yet to be invented. If you don't like DFW’s masterpiece, sub in your favorite essay of all time.
It's pure magic.
The Hat Tip Podcast is v1 of that dream.
I welcome feedback on everything I should do differently for episode 2. Audio, video, art, music, animations, the way I read the essay. Nothing is off limits. Please tell me what you think. The good and the bad.
I have 16 more of these I'm planning to release in the coming weeks, including essays by @sama @waitbutwhy @SchrodingrsBrat @TheAnnaGat @david_perell @visakanv @zebriez @samhinkie @patio11 @jsomers @eugenewei.
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I should add that the Hat Tip Podcast is part of a larger project I'm working on at hattip.app.
I'm not yet sure what Hat Tip will become, but my goal is to nudge internet curation + distribution in a better direction.
If you go to hattip.app/top, you can find the product @mattturck was calling for a couple months ago: a Hacker News-esque leaderboard for podcast episodes.
I'm still the only one who's participated so you should create an account and add your favorite episode of the year!
My email is jonathan.r.stern@gmail.com. I hope you'll reach out and let me know what you think.
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Lastly, thank you to those who have helped me think through this and related ideas, and have been sources of support. @DCarterDuncan @eriktorenberg @arudansk @gaby_goldberg
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@peter_mantas @psyopcapital hard to call Phillips a monopoly on MRI. Siemens and GEHC are much bigger.
Medtech is tricky. Each category is an oligopoly, but not much pricing power because vendors try to sell multiple products instead of pressing on one.
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@psyopcapital Drug delivery - 90% of biologics delivery controlled by $wst
CROs - $CRL and $EVO control majority of preclinical
MRIs - Phillips
5G and related communications testing - $keys
Diagnostic labs for pets - $idxx
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@bloomt Marketing is included in overheads which i did subtract pro-rata.
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@BabaGhanoushLLC sure $60M for a monument is crazy, but the city is also paying 7x (!) that to re-build the paths in Riverside ... and it's nowhere near done 2+ years later
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Must-read bio on $RDVT founder via @ByrneHobart - company combines various public datasets to build its own predictive models.
Stock is a former small cap darling that isnt talked about much any more
nytimes.com/2023/09/22/mag…
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@buckleycapital But what does the stock moving on the nothing-burger LULU/PTON tell us about $xpof?
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