Devon S

@WarrenPies I always enjoy your interviews and objectivity Warren, thank you.

I did my best here to reconcile the bullish forces underpinning the equity market and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are often a test of your tolerance for cognitive dissonance. This is a classic case study. Thanks for the conversation Jack.

@ALikhodedov I'm two days late reading this but thank you for this tweet Anton, very informative. You're an awesome follow.

WHY DID BRENT DROP TODAY? BRENT JUNE (COM6) FUTURE EXPIRY I see many people citing "June future expiration" as the reason for today's price drop without clarifying further. They may find it interesting that exactly the opposite happened on the expiration of the previous - May 2026 future (on March 31st). On the 2 graphs below: - green line is expiring contract (May 26 on the top one, June 26 on the bottom one) - white line is the front spread (May/June for the top and May/June for the bottom) - orange line is 2nd futures contract (June 26 on the top, July 26 on the bottom). Brent futures settlement is based on "Brent Index". Full description is in the document below ice.com/publicdocs/fut… But in broad terms the way the future settles is calculated by averaging 5 observations (volume weighted minute markers) - 2-3 minute periods around 10.30 , 12.30, 14.30, 16.30, 19.30 GMT/BST AND 3 computation methods. First two methods are based on the 2nd future contract (so this is what is averaged in the minute markers) and the third - on actual physical cargo trades - for the "First month" (i.e. the month of expiring contract - June 2026 today). There is also EFP involved, but it is a very small piece, so let us ignore it. This is important - the 2nd future contract plays the key role in settlement of the 1st contract on expiry. In the first two methods the value for the expiring future (June today) is implied by adding the front spread (June/July today) to the 2nd future (July). This is the Cash BFOETM (Brent/Forties/Oseberg/Ekofisk/Troll/WTI Midland) front month to second month spread. I described briefly the cash BFOETM forward in my note on Dated Brent below - x.com/ALikhodedov/st… ... Normally cash BFOETM is close to the futures price for the same month; however it may not hold when the contract is expiring. So if we go back to the graphs, we see that on expiry of May contract on 31st of March, 2nd contract (June 2026, i.e. COM6) was stable until 5.30pm (around 107). But the spread between 2 contracts started to explode after the first sampling period reaching $12 by 5.30pm. At the end of the day (17.30-19.30) COM6 dropped - so the spread with expiring COK6 increased further (since COK6 was 80% fixed at that time). Today the spread behaved in exactly the opposite way - it was very high before the first fixing ($9-12, although $12 was reached - it seems - during some liquidation at night time), then dropped to $6 and is not around $4. So what was going on - why did Brent drop today? I am not sure :), but I would decompose the problem into 2 parts 1) why did July (2nd contract - CON6) drop I like the theory linking it to yen carry trade unwind, suggested by @CRUDEOIL231, who I again strongly recommend to follow: x.com/CRUDEOIL231/st… 2)Why did the spread between June and July drop instead of going up like on previous expiry? I do not have a definitive answer, however here are some considerations - At the end of March physical market was getting stronger and stronger, with physical premiums ultimately reaching as much as $23+ for certain BFOETM grades during the first and 2nd week of April. So clearly there was strong demand for physical + as @OilCfd pointed out - it is quite possible that traders pushed the premiums higher in the Dated Brent window, similar to what reportedly happened with Dubai crude in March, when Total bought record amount of physical cargoes, achieving mind blowing physical fixings (allegedly making money on the derivatives, that were linked to those fixings). This time around Dated Brent premiums were weaker and were weakening for last couple of weeks - due to more WTI Midland coming from the US and Chinese buyers reselling the cargoes that they bought in March (possibly expecting to get crude from SPR) - again thanks to for color. I myself - after seeing what happened with June contract was thinking to take by June positions into expiry, but as the futures (COM6CON6) spread went above $7, while Dated Brent was not as strong as a month ago, decided not to bother and just rolled them into July .... I could be wrong - as I do not trade physical oil (although I learned quite a bit about it and briefly oversaw a small physical business a few years ago and have friends in the industry) - so if any actual physical traders care to chime in, it would be great.

@pineconemacro Just a couple more weeks 😉

Thinking the ‘over very soon’ stuff from 6 weeks ago wasn’t legit

@djlowe Just curious, what's your thoughts on Akita Dustin?

Wow big news today with $akt.a acquiring $pou drilling arm Would be a shame if something else happened today to overshadow it

@GavMcCracken Some US shale companies have figured out to be a profitable business even at $65 oil but for the most part shale has incinerated capital and made the finance community very complacent.

Talked to four quantitative finance firms today. Can confirm finance people don't understand the depth of the strait of Hormuz oil crisis. No one even knew at least 11% of global oil production is offline, we have so much higher to go as this information is disseminated.

@peteremcc @PATCHnHrd @GavMcCracken

I promise I am not joking... This is Canada's spaceport. Last month, the federal government paid $200 million to a company called Maritime Launch Services to lease it for 10 years.

@ShaleTier7 @TommyDeepwater Thank you for this Micheal, great explanation honestly.

@VivekGRamaswamy Frac Spreads are down 35 year over year. This administration is no friend to the oil industry. @SecretaryWright was bragging today about VENEZUELA increasing production.

Ask yourself how many thousands more in taxes you would have paid this week without last year’s tax cuts. Ask yourself what gas prices would be if we hadn’t drilled for more oil over the last year. This list goes on.

@anchovycapital The price action on $ACDC has me very confused. Oil is near $100, Haynesville rig count is increasing, and Qatar just had 2 BCF of export capacity go down for 3-5 years. Profrac will benefit immensely from the incoming American LNG wave. What am I missing?

For the life of me I can’t understand why people aren’t bidding up shale services companies here. If you want to ramp oil output quick, shale is the answer. In a gold rush, sell shovels. Rig count will pick up soon. $ACDC $KLXE $NINE $PUMP

@Rory_Johnston Might have to get the electric Hummer Rory lol

First time filling the family whip since the start of the Iran War that I made this face when I saw the price

@TG3M1N1 @Rory_Johnston To each their own.

@devon_1414 @Rory_Johnston There is at least 4 different ways to hide those wires, that would drive me nuts looking at that all the time.

Going live after commercial break.

@anasalhajji What makes you say that? By 2031 or earlier Canada will need more pipeline space. It takes forever for anything to get built here so action needs to start happening ASAP.

Canada doesn't need the Keystone XL anymore.

@KYRRadio @Rory_Johnston So excited for this! Thank you gentlemen.

Just finished an interview with @Rory_Johnston If you want to know what’s really going on in the energy market you won’t wa t to miss this. Rory’s research is second to none. We pay for it. I can give no higher praise. Will post in next few hours

@RyMB @KYRRadio Congrats. You win dumb tweet of the day 🤣

Here’s financial “expert” @KYRRadio saying that he thinks tariff stimulus checks will be coming to Americans *after* SCOTUS struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs and ordered $170+Billion in refunds. “I’m not a tariff expert” yeah, no shit dude. facebook.com/share/v/1AyTLD…

@KYRRadio KSA just announced their shutting in production. Global inventories dropping by the minute.

PSA: oil doesn’t care about your politics. You simply need to own it. If you don’t feel compelled you don’t understand the situation. Period

@laurant_blanc Q4 earnings just hit and they're up 17%. No offense but you're just a terrible investor in OFS.

$acdc more shenanigans by bulls leaning against 100 and 50 day MAs. Reality check will come when Q4 earnings hit.

@laurant_blanc Up 11% and activity going to most definitely pick up. Cry more.

$acdc another terrible quarter. They can hide behind the oil price spike for now. Mgmt might even dump another follow on offering on their shareholders given the share price uptick.

@calvinfroedge Selling all my miners and putting everything into the Qs.

I hope you're planning for deficit expansion

@EnergyCynic 🤣 What a great scene.

Litre? Wtf is a liter