@edwardfishman It was surprising to me as well until I saw the damage that one Iranian strike on Qatar's LNG facility did. Then it all became clear- Iran is holding the cards when it comes to energy destruction.
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Altair
604 posts
The lenience with which the U.S. has treated Iranian oil is my biggest surprise of the war so far.
Goes to show how low Washington’s pain tolerance is for rising oil prices…
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER
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@FirstSquawk But he won't, out of fear of Iran hitting Qatar LNG again.
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@JournalistJet @manniefabian This means that an Iranian strategic win is virtually inevitable. They hold the cards.
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@manniefabian This is BIG guys
Jet Journalist@JournalistJet
BREAKING NEWS: Iranian attack knocks out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity, repairs expected to take 3–5 years. QatarEnergy CEO: Never in my wildest dreams did I think Qatar and the region would face such an attack, especially from a fellow Muslim country during Ramadan. Source: Reuters
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The Israeli strikes at the Iranian port city of Bandar Anzal and in the Caspian Sea last night destroyed several vessels of the Iranian Navy, as well as naval infrastructure, the military says, publishing footage of the attacks.
According to the IDF, the strikes destroyed an Iranian Navy corvette, four missile boats, several auxiliary ships and guard boats, along with a command center and a shipyard.
Some of the vessels were located at the port, while others were out at sea.
The military says that the missile boats were targeted to cause a blow to the Iranian military, despite the fact that they do not pose a direct threat to Israel from the Caspian Sea.
Still, the IDF adds that the missile boats have anti-aircraft capabilities and could pose a threat to Israeli aircraft operating over Iran, as well as anti-submarine capabilities.
Preparations for the strike only began days ago, and it was not among the military's initial bank of targets in Iran. Researchers at the Naval Intelligence Division located the ships and worked with the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Israeli Air Force to plan the strike.
It marks the first time that the IDF had struck in this area of Iran, both in this war and the previous rounds of conflict, according to the military.
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🚨 Hello! The main news at this hour:
1️⃣ Iran attacked the world's largest liquefied natural gas production facility in Qatar (video).
2️⃣ After the missile strike on Qatar, Brent oil reached $112 per barrel.
3️⃣ Trump threatened Iran to destroy the entire South Pars gas field if attacks on Qatar don't stop.
4️⃣ Meanwhile, the US is considering sending a thousand soldiers to the Middle East, according to Reuters.
5️⃣ Peskov stated that the trilateral group Russia—USA—Ukraine's work has been suspended.
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🔴Footage of the largest gas facility in Qatar after being hit by the Iranian terror regime.
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🚨BREAKING: THE LARGEST GAS FIELD ON EARTH IS COMPLETELY ON FIRE IN QATAR
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@SpencerHakimian Dude, Qatar just tweeted that all 3 fires were completely out.
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@RnaudBertrand I doubt a facility that big could be taken out by the small number of missiles Iran launched today.
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I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever.
This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…).
What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself).
Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there).
Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up.
From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.
QatarEnergy@qatarenergy
QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar
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@MattMorseTV Like 5 different media outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, reported that Trump knew in advance.
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This is the second time that Israel has attacked Iranian energy infrastructure without giving Trump a heads-up. Trump doesn't seem happy about it.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
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@policytensor "Escalation dominance" is the best term I've heard to describe Iran's position now. That's a dangerous position for them to be in, though, since they might enjoy playing with their newfound power too much, and B-1s, B-2s and B-52s can make quick work of energy facilities.
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The clearest case of escalate-to-deescalate working as intended. And the clearest real-time proof yet that Iran enjoys escalation dominance.
“NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field.”
Policy Tensor@policytensor
Al Jazeera confirmed 8 min ago. Others still behind the curve. aje.news/fs4nzb Now this is a case of escalate-to-deescalate. Israel stuck 1 gas facility. Iran has stuck 3, one each in KSA, UAE and Qatar. This “works” because Iran enjoys escalation dominance. Not bc it can cause more harm, but bc it can take more punishment — it is more resolved. See my earlier tweet for how escalate-to-deescalate works: x.com/policytensor/s…
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@GayBearRes I wish I could agree with the first part of that, but I think the trend is clearly for our population to get dumber, not smarter. And that's the root cause of our problems, imo.
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@mehdiy_fa We can't allow Iran's regime to learn the perverse lesson that they can get as crazy and reckless as they like and we will keep our gloves on.
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@txgermanbre One of the easiest "bad person" signs to me is rooting for Russia over Ukraine, or even being indifferent to Ukraine's plight.
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I have Russia hatred syndrome, I hope God personally flows through me the hatred of a thousand towards that God foresaken hellscape, I hope everyday the pain is felt upon Moscow, I hope every single day that life is miserable for every Moscow leader, I will NEVER let this go
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I have always been fascinated by refenestration, where they throw you back in through the window.
Catherine Warr@HiddenYorkshire
I'm at the Window of Defenestration, an unassuming room of singular historical importance as it is here, in 1618, where one act of defenestration (being thrown out of a window) was the catalyst for the Thirty Years War, one of the most destructive conflicts in European history
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@JochenBittner I think Merz would have been wise to give Trump something other than an unambiguous "no." Something like "sure we can help escort ships - once the fighting dies down." I guess the temptation to play to the (justifiable) anti-Trump sentiment in Germany was too great to resist.
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Graham ist ein ausgewiesener Nato- und Europafreund.
Man muss ihn nicht für einen Repräsentanten der Mitte halten. Aber vielen Europäern, einschließlich dem Bundeskanzler, ist offenbar nicht klar, wie tief die Enttäuschung über den jahrzehntelangen Mangel an Burden Sharing bei vielen Amerikanern ohnehin schon saß — und was gerade auf dem Spiel steht.
Lindsey Graham@LindseyGrahamSC
Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake. The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure. The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America. I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.
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What would happen if the US left NATO? What’s the down side now that it’s clear that there’s no real accountability by all NATO members? What would it mean for the US if it left?
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@MazMHussain The Gulf States said before the war that we couldn't use their bases or airspace for the attacks on Iran. And we're supposed to defend them?
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I've written about this before but the Americans on some level have an emotional and cultural bond with Israel that they do not feel at all with the Gulf Arab states whose relationship is explicitly like a protection racket. They will never prioritize defending these states.
Middle East Observer@ME_Observer_
⚡️⭕️ Kuwaiti political analyst Fahad Al-Shlimi: The American bases do not protect us, we are the ones who protect the American bases, America focused its efforts to protect Israeli territory and left us, not a single missile was given to us.
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@Pataramesh Wow, I'd have this post pinned to the top of my Twitter page if I had made it. Amazingly accurate prediction -both that Iran would try this and that they would succeed.
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It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump
➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic
Watch video below to understand...
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