Short Consensus

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Short Consensus

Short Consensus

@ShortConsensus

가입일 Haziran 2021
5K 팔로잉113 팔로워
Tanning Salon Don
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon·
I was wrong Lost money and credibility And I’m very sorry for all of my followers that trusted me I’ll never understand how Trump agreed to the $2m toll, removing sanctions, and enriching uranium My whole bet was that he would never agree to that But that doesn’t matter What matters is things can happen that don’t make sense Never bet more than you can afford to lose PS. I still think the strait stays closed and I’m right but at this point I can no longer trust my own thoughts on this subject
Tanning Salon Don tweet media
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon

You can lead a horse to water…

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Alexey Grigorev
Alexey Grigorev@Al_Grigor·
Claude Code wiped our production database with a Terraform command. It took down the DataTalksClub course platform and 2.5 years of submissions: homework, projects, and leaderboards. Automated snapshots were gone too. In the newsletter, I wrote the full timeline + what I changed so this doesn't happen again. If you use Terraform (or let agents touch infra), this is a good story for you to read. alexeyondata.substack.com/p/how-i-droppe…
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@tensorqt They don’t have anything of value except the stolen know how. Are you literally retarded?
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Logan Thorneloe
Logan Thorneloe@loganthorneloe·
My team at Google is hiring ML and software engineers in Pittsburgh and Mountain View! We're looking for someone who is: - Curious - High agency - Excited about solving difficult problems If this is you, send me a DM. (If you've already sent one and I didn't respond, ping me again!)
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@QwQiao Are you assigning 0% to ai doesn’t deliver? Lmaoooooooooooooooooooo
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qw
qw@QwQiao·
i find citrini’s doom scenario extremely unlikely (~10%) there r 3 far more likely scenarios: - we print our way out of it (~30%) - ai tech diffusion is slow enough that we soft land (~30%) - society successfully pushes back against massive ai buildout (~30%) obv these scenarios aren’t mutually exclusive and in fact i expect a combination of these to happen. but i just really don’t think the future will be that bad.
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Noam Brown
Noam Brown@polynoamial·
I appreciate @Anthropic's honesty in their latest system card, but the content of it does not give me confidence that the company will act responsibly with deployment of advanced AI models: -They primarily relied on an internal survey to determine whether Opus 4.6 crossed their autonomous AI R&D-4 threshold (and would thus require stronger safeguards to release under their Responsible Scaling Policy). This wasn't even an external survey of an impartial 3rd party, but rather a survey of Anthropic employees. -When 5/16 internal survey respondents initially gave an assessment that suggested stronger safeguards might be needed for model release, Anthropic followed up with those employees specifically and asked them to "clarify their views." They do not mention any similar follow-up for the other 11/16 respondents. There is no discussion in the system card of how this may create bias in the survey results. -Their reason for relying on surveys is that their existing AI R&D evals are saturated. Some might argue that AI progress has been so fast that it's understandable they don't have more advanced quantitative evaluations yet, but we can and should hold AI labs to a high bar. Also, other labs do have advanced AI R&D evals that aren't saturated. For example, OpenAI has the OPQA benchmark which measures AI models' ability to solve real internal problems that OpenAI research teams encountered and that took the team more than a day to solve. I don't think Opus 4.6 is actually at the level of a remote entry-level AI researcher, and I don't think it's dangerous to release. But the point of a Responsible Scaling Policy is to build institutional muscle and good habits before things do become serious. Internal surveys, especially as Anthropic has administered them, are not a responsible substitute for quantitative evaluations.
Noam Brown tweet media
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David Icke
David Icke@davidicke·
It has been going on for millennia which is why artists long ago depicted such scenes of child killing and why the ancients sacrificed 'young virgins to the gods' (children) as the 'Elite' still do in secret to this day. What is the common denominator throughout these epochs and eras? The other-dimensional force in a reality without our illusion of 'time'.
Lord Bebo@MyLordBebo

🇺🇸 Epstein ordered $2,000 "MASSACRE OF THE INNOCENTS" painting for Zorro Ranch in New Mexico It illustrates the biblical massacre of male infants under two in Bethlehem “It’s the large 9'x9' canvas that we displayed in the entrance where they are killing babies.” — Epstein's assistant * This is the same location where victims recounted feeling like “human incubators” due to his obsession with a "superior gene pool." Some emails discuss underground tunnels at the ranch.

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Carra Wu
Carra Wu@carrawu·
I’m so, so lucky to have gotten to call @AriannaSimpson a mentor, boss, and friend for 5 of these 6 years. Arianna— you gave me the chance of a lifetime, and (like any of your best investments) I plan on working tirelessly to prove you right ❤️
AriannaSimpson.eth@AriannaSimpson

Some news! After 6 incredible years, I’m going to be transitioning out of a16z. I’m starting a fund of my own to do what I love most, which is investing in great founders as early as I can find them, with a broader aperture across the many verticals where great companies are being built today. I learned a huge amount during my time at a16z. @cdixon is widely known as a legendary investor and having the opportunity to work closely with him for the past 6 years has been an honor. I am extremely grateful for his mentorship, the opportunities he gave me here, and for the capital and responsibilities he entrusted me with. His frameworks will shape how I think about investments for the rest of my career. When I joined, the crypto vertical was 7 people (it’s now north of 80), and the firm, while already successful, was nowhere near the scale or scope it has today. At the time I thought the firm’s moves to dominate the industry had mostly unfolded, but I underestimated how much the lead could widen in a few short years. @bhorowitz and @pmarca have built an institution, and I am glad to have had the chance to play a small role on the team. I’m sure I’ll be looking back 6 years from now and see the firm in a position  that’s  hard to even imagine from today’s vantage point. Most of the best people I’ve worked with in my career to date have been at a16z – there are too many to name. I’m very grateful to have worked with so many incredible folks here, and I know that I am leaving the crypto team and the investing practice in extremely capable hands with @cdixon, @alive_eth, and @guywuolletjr. I’m also really going to miss working with @jasonrothenal and @eddylazzarin every day in Menlo Park — I’ve learned so much from both of them. I’m very proud of the work I did here, and most importantly, of the founders I had the privilege of working with. They are the reason why I love being an investor. Sometimes it takes dozens of meetings, but every time you find a star, it makes you fall in love with the job all over again. a16z’s passion for and commitment to founders and their companies is what made me love this job in particular. I’m excited to keep doing that in my next chapter — and if you’re building, I’d love to meet!

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Alexia Jolicoeur-Martineau
Alexia Jolicoeur-Martineau@jm_alexia·
In 2018, I was rejected by universities so I did my own AI research (with 1 GPU). My second paper (Relativistic GAN) got picked up by @goodfellow_ian, who helped me enter the AI world. I then started a PhD with @bouzoukipunks. => Start on your own, and don't be afraid to fail
Noam Brown@polynoamial

I'm often asked how to land a research job at a frontier AI lab. It's hard, especially without a research background, but I like to point to @kellerjordan0 as an example showing it can be done. Keller graduated from UCSD with no publication record and was working at an AI content moderation startup when he landed a cold call with @bneyshabur (who was at Google) and presented an idea to improve upon Behnam's recent paper. Behnam agreed to mentor him, which led to an ICLR paper. Sadly there's less open research today, but improving upon a researcher's published work is a great way to demonstrate excellence to someone inside a lab and give them the conviction to advocate for an interview. Later, Keller got on @OpenAI's radar thanks to the NanoGPT speed run he started. All his work was documented and it was easy to measure his success, so the case for hiring him was strong. Keller is one example, but there's plenty of other success stories as well: 🧵

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Dan Robinson
Dan Robinson@danrobinson·
Hard to imagine debugging something by hand anymore When Claude can't fix a bug, I give it to Codex When Codex can't fix it, I give it to Amp When Amp can't fix it, I give it to @gakonst
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Yifei Zhou
Yifei Zhou@YifeiZhou02·
Belated life update: I started my next chapter at Thinking Machines Lab this week, and it’s been an incredible experience — unmatched work culture and talent density. Extremely bullish on what the team is building 🚀
Yifei Zhou tweet media
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@lessin Stoned 13 year old thoughts, lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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sam lessin 🏴‍☠️
Pre-religion: no large-scale coordination required Religion: coordination via rules, punishment, and belief Capitalism: coordination via markets and incentives AI era: no coordination, no agency—only passive consumption of progress This is not a crisis of jobs. It is not a crisis of inequality. It is a crisis of why a human life should be lived at all—when neither God, ancestors, markets, nor collective effort are necessary for the future to arrive. The unsettling possibility is that AI does not usher in a new ideology.... It ushers in none.
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@ivanburazin Lmaoooooooooooo, just log off queen. The linkedin hustle cringe will be there when you are back.
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Ivan Burazin
Ivan Burazin@ivanburazin·
If you’re taking a break for the holidays your ngmi.
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@HarryStebbings Ehh this is not how stats works son. If used as signal you also need to know how shitty founders answer and differentiate the distributions. Shocking how quant illiterates are able to raise vc funds ... lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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Harry Stebbings
Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings·
The best question to ask: What drives you more, the thrill of winning or the fear of losing? I have asked 100 of the best founders in the world this. 82 said the same thing.
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Καλός
Καλός@realKalos·
Hi everyone, this is Kalos’s brother. I still can’t believe I’m writing this, but Kalos passed away last night around 3 AM from a sudden heart attack. He had been complaining of chest pain all evening. I only found out he was active here a couple of weeks ago, but I know he really liked this place and would have wanted you all to know. I’ll be deleting this account on January 1st. Goodbye.
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sungmo
sungmo@sungmo_apac16z·
Gmonad everyone! I’ve been sitting in front of my keyboard for quite some time, trying to find the perfect way to begin this message. But I would like to share that next Monday will be my last day at Monad Foundation. Exactly nineteen months ago, I joined Monad as the APAC Lead to work on practically everything related to the Asia Pacific market. I was the first hire in the region, and at that time, the entire company had around 30 people. There was so much to build, and I truly enjoyed every initiative we worked on—from Monad 101s across different cities to hosting Monad Madness in Bangkok and Hong Kong. What made my job even more exciting was the incredible support from community members across so many countries. I still believe the Nads will be a superpower and a source of magic for Monad—probably even more so now with mainnet live. Working at Monad Foundation has been one of the best experiences of my career—not only because we were driving real innovation in this industry, but even more because I genuinely liked the people I had the privilege to work with. The collaborations, the challenges we tackled together, and the big and small moments we shared are memories I will carry with me for a long time. It is always very difficult to say goodbye, especially when you’ve enjoyed your time with colleagues you truly admire. I also have to admit that I’m leaving much earlier than I would have expected. But a new opportunity came at the right time—one that I believe will help me continue to grow. I’ll be able to share more about my next chapter next week. My sincere thanks to all my colleagues at Monad Foundation—especially @keoneHD and @0x_eunice , who have supported me from the very beginning until today. And to all the OG members who grinded our youth together - @intern @0x_Abdul , @Joey_Anthony_ , @billmondays @thetinaverse @cryptunez and ALL THE APAC-based team members, especially those I worked closely with on a daily basis: @michael_lwy , @lulu70191243 , @Harveycww , @EforNad , @jinglingcookies , @FishMarketAcad , @spicytaco and @d3t3 . Although I could not mention all the names, I'll separately reach out! I’ll still be around and will always be a fan of the Monad ecosystem, so let’s definitely keep in touch. You know where to find me! Gnad!
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Short Consensus
Short Consensus@ShortConsensus·
@jasonlk This is literally the only thing you do and even that you analyze in a completely retarded way. The key is not in static metrics it’s the derivatives, growth will go negative and then the business will die. This is what’s being priced in.
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Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin
PagerDuty has fallen to $1.1 Billion market cap … at $500m ARR 2.1x ARR It’s profitable now, but it isn’t growing anymore. Revenue growth has slowed to 4% and new customer count is net 0. The markets reward growth. Efficient growth or insane growth. But growth. No growth but profits = 2x ARR at scale.
Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin tweet media
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
@DavidSacks @grok Strongly agree! … detailing corruption in Ukraine and not mentioning Putin’s historic run is stupid — or insincere!
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