@DellAnnaLuca @eZekiel_HB @tmsvrb The realistic scenario where everyone can talk to one another and all go voluntarily push the death button? Are you simple?
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not me
510 posts
@eZekiel_HB @tmsvrb “Luca is wrong because instead of commenting on an absurd scenario where people cannot communicate, he generalized to the much more useful and realistic scenario where people cannot communicate communicate”
Sure
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Red voters advise their kids (and others) to vote red, so they’re saved for sure.
Blue voters advise their kids (and others) to vote blue, thereby gambling with their lives.
But somehow red voters would be those caring less about their kids and others in general?
The idea that blue is the moral choice hinges on the unwarranted assumption that blue wins with certainty.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@Lloyd_Arthur_ @minordissent No. Blue will not win when there is an actual serious consequence. Definitely won't win when that consequence is death.
Intelligent guy will pick the winning side and won't throw away his life for vanity sake. He definitely won't Yap about honor and shit.
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if this libtard spending an hour writing an elaborate story to try and make you viscerally feel how “red pressers are like real heckin bad and will live forever with regret” because he is genuinely too stupid to comprehend the game theory of the question is not a perfect microcosm of the libtard worldview, i dont know what is.
cherki@_cherki82_
Game it out. You push the red button. Maybe you convince the majority of people to push the red button. Maybe even 75% of people push the red button. So what happens next? A full quarter of the Earth’s population dies. “Great,” you think. “Now I have more room to live.” Excited, you go to call your friends to meet up. But the cell phones aren’t working. It’s also 90° outside, and you notice your AC isn’t running. The power is out. So you start walking down the street to your neighbor’s house. On the way, you see bodies littering the sidewalk. You keep walking anyway, feeling a bit more anxious now. You get to your neighbor’s house. He answers the door, weeping. His toddler pressed the blue button. He is holding her in his arms. Your stomach grumbles. You’re hungry. The store is just a little bit farther, you say. So you start walking. Someone speeds past you in their car, running over a couple bodies before skidding out and hitting a pole. You quicken your pace. You see a group of people heading toward the store too. The store’s doors are busted open. There is a frenzy. Someone pulls out a gun and shoots another person clamoring to get in and grab food before it is gone. Everyone realizes the same thing at once: without people to work the equipment, drive the trucks, staff the hospitals, repair the lines, answer the emergency calls, and keep the systems moving, most essential services have shut down. The red-button pushers are all here. And they see the bodies everywhere. The reality sinks in. A few days later, the stench of the corpses rises through the air. You see rats and vultures feasting on dead neighbors, pecking out their eyes and tearing open their bellies. Your hunger rises. You have found yourself in a special kind of hell, surrounded by fellow red-button pushers, all of whom skewed toward the selfish end of the spectrum. Chaos erupts everywhere. Constant gunshots ring out as people battle for the rapidly dwindling resources. Gangs begin forming. A few weeks later, the friends you had left are no longer really your friends. A deep depression has settled over the land, as the collective decision that abruptly ended the lives of a quarter of the global population manifests in new and unforeseen ways. A couple more weeks, you figure. That’s all you have. Someone breaks through your door. You wrestle them to the ground, pull the gun from their hands, and fire a round through their skull. You look at the bloody mess. You smell the decaying flesh all around you. You realize this world is not meant for you. You turn the gun toward your mouth and pull the trigger. But the magazine is empty. You collapse to the ground and weep. Then, three days later, you die. Press the damned blue button.
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@EditionA3 @GeneralGrundie @QiaochuYuan @GarrettPetersen Someone’s mad they outed themselves as a coward and we now find ourselves at the “trust me bro” stage of the coping discourse. You were wrong, and now you’re doubling down rather than admit it.
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50% blue is extremely difficult. Even on this fake poll the margin of error is very thin. If people believed real lives were on the line, fear will be the overriding behavior.
You may quibble “humanity can be heroic!”, but true heroes are a small minority who make a huge impact. There are not enough to get anything close to 50%.
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i completely missed this discourse the first time so lemme try. i pressed blue without thinking about it, my gut reaction was "blue is prosocial and red is antisocial," on reflection this still seems right to me
galaxy-brain game theory arguments in favor of red are completely missing the point. as others have pointed out, empirically blue wins, and this is a test of theory of mind more than anything else. the actual outcome is determined by what everyone else who is not you actually does, not by what game theory says they should do
a certain kind of nerd thinks game theory is just the "correct" framework for reasoning about this type of situation and that is absolutely not true either and can be questioned on intellectual grounds and not just vibes. among other things game theory assumes every participant is perfectly selfish and perfectly """rational""" (and that this is common knowledge among the participants). this is just totally false as a description of the actual world! multiple parents pointed out that parents have to remember that this test includes their children. and obviously the vast majority of people have never even heard of game theory but they do know what selfishness and selflessness are
funnily enough there's LW stuff around exotic decision theories that's actually relevant here. one of them i would describe roughly as "when you make a decision you are choosing to live in a world where people like you make decisions like that" and i'd rather choose to live in a world where people like me are prosocial
"blue is prosocial and red is antisocial" is also a self-fulfilling prophecy, the more people who believe it the more true it becomes. so believing it is partly a bet on how much other people believe it, partly an act of hyperstition to make it true. few
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@BennMotta @Raymond21963618 @ChadNotChud No, it will unequivocally be the popular choice. There’s no doubt whatsoever.
Whatever moral/ethical framework you’re using to justify pushing blue, understand that you are - in the scope of the planet Earth - the extreme minority.
You will die.
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every time this goes around I’m honestly flabbergasted by this justification for picking “red”
everyone won’t do that. like that’s just an empirical fact. moreover the fact that there’s discourse about it should immediately prove that to you. many, many people will choose blue
Adam Rackis@AdamRackis
@LilUziVartan Not if everyone picks red lol
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@Raymond21963618 @patrickhays2 @ChadNotChud It’s the opposite. people push the red button on these polls because they’re convinced red will be the popular choice and that’s why so many red pushers are in the comments indignant and coping for being wrong
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@patrickhays2 @ChadNotChud I agree. Given how close the polls are in a no stakes scenario. Red would win by a huge margin in a real event
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@jw8c @Phantom_TheGame It’s an anonymous internet poll lol. You guys get so salty when you reveal yourselves to be cowards
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@Phantom_TheGame Nothing changes the fact that although in public they will say they will push the blue button, in private they will always press red.
The poll is almost a question of how honest you are, not what choice you will make.
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There is a 0% chance everyone will pick red. Therefore, there is a 0% chance that people WON'T pick blue knowing this, because they don't want people to die. And knowing this, even more people would press blue to save those people.
Picking red might seem logical at first, because you'll always live, but think for a second. Realistically, around 50% of people will pick blue. What will happen to society if half the population dies? Additionally, the ones picking blue are probably the most altruistic people. People who would put themselves in danger to save others. These are your doctors, firemen, policemen, teachers, military, nurses etc. If less than 50% of humanity picks blue, all of these people will die. If you pick red, and all the blue pressers die, you have not ensured your own safety. The world you'll live in will be in complete chaos. A world where all remaining humans are the most selfish and have the least amount of empathy. I'd guess a huge percentage of the remaining population would die in the next few years. Picking red is the slow, painful death option. Picking blue is - you might die, but at least it will be quick and painless compared to the ones who picked red. Preferably though, blue is the "save everyone and prevent society from collapsing" option.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@ButterflyGreasy @G0ffThew That’s not what will happen though. Not everyone will pick red. So you sound dumb for pretending that’s even a possibility.
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@G0ffThew Smart ones. If everybody picks red, nobody is even at risk of dying. It's literally a non-issue. Blue is a "chance to die while looking noble" and red is "die in literally no scenario"
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The calculus to press red is, to put it kindly, short-sighted idiot math. It begins and ends with “what input gives me the best odds of living” with no regard for what the world you’d be living in - where everyone you can trust is dead and everyone else knows it - would look like
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@that1guyv83 @G0ffThew “Least intelligent people” and you yourself didn’t even understand the dilemma lol. You don’t get to tell your kids which button to pick. So your kids are going to die and you’ll know it was your fault they did.
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@G0ffThew Considering red is guaranteed survival, you’d lose the least intelligent people to the dilemma.
And further, knowing red is guaranteed survival, which color do parents encourage their children to pick? Certainly not blue. Other friends and family?
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@jamesalanmonk @Liinad_De_Varge @Romy_Holland James monk out here willing to shoot toddlers who didn’t understand the assignment and are currently stumbling around in blue shirts.
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@Liinad_De_Varge @Romy_Holland How is picking up a red gun not cooperating? The blues are being selfish by not joining the bloodless 100% red gun coalition and forcing us to shoot them.
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it’s fun to imagine what would happen socially/politically if this situation actually happened. it would quickly be determined that even if official guidance dictated pressing the red button, some percentage of people would inevitably press blue. because of this, guidance would be to push blue so we could save the red button dummies.
the whole thing would become intensely politicized and people would push the red button in protest. there’d be endless polling and then scrutiny of the polls. a lot of people would push red, but probably not half.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@JuicyGooser1 @Brilliand__ @Romy_Holland @diviacaroline It seems like you’re sidestepping the actual scenario and giving yourself a different scenario to feel better about making a decision that leads to the deaths of millions of people.
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@Brilliand__ @Romy_Holland @diviacaroline Let me pose it another way: do you endorse setting up the scenario as described? Do you think the government should recreate the terms of the thought experiment and kill people according to it?
If not, if you think the scenario should be refused altogether, then you're red.
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@veloradawn @minordissent I like how blue wins every time this question is posed and yet red pressers, without fail, insist they are actually correct. This is the third time I’ve seen it and it’s 3-0 blue. Blue is the obvious choice.
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@minordissent The inability of people to comprehend that red is the obvious choice is scary. If you voted blue you are just confused.. let me rephrase it in simple terms:
Everyone who vote red survives
Everyone who vote blue survives if 50% or more people vote blue
Voilà
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Blue voters are so full of shit on so many levels.
1. The question is not over whether you are selfless its whether you think most people are. Even the most holier than thou lib believes most people are selfish and thus would not press blue.
2. If everyone just presses red no one dies. blue adds unnecessary death.
3. They are moralizing the experiment to ask “what is the good person answer” rather than honestly reflecting on what theyd do if it really happened. I guarantee you that you put any person in that room and say “if you vote blue but most people dont, we will SHOOT YOU” that not one single person will take that risk, especially given #1.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@RealNorthEndGuy @firstnameb22616 @LinkofSunshine If you press red you have to live the rest of your life knowing you’re a coward.
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Every blue argument I’ve has been based on someone else hitting blue out of incapacity rather than by choice.
No one has yet argued, that a person with capacity (adult age, sound mind, and no tic pushing their hand to the wrong button. Make the buttons colorblind accessible, etc.) would independently choose blue.
Does that make it clearer? Can you argue for blue without relying on the infancy/disability argument?
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“Oh I pressed the kill myself button so now you also have to press the kill yourself button to save me from my decision 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺”
Just don’t press the god damn kill yourself button???
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@Helix_mint @Mhenderson550 @LinkofSunshine And only half have to press blue. you just have to not be a little bitch about it.
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@Mhenderson550 @LinkofSunshine That is true though, if everyone pushed the red no one would die, obviously unfortunately some people won't, but they chose to push the button that out their life at risk. Their poor decision making doesn't mean you should put your life at risk
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@CJDGiesen @waitbutwhy Not everyone is going to press the red button. More than 50% will press the blue button. If you don’t want to be partially responsible for killing people, you have to press the blue button.
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@waitbutwhy Am i missing something? The way you framed it, EVERYBODY who pressed Blue is an Idiot. Because you basically have a choice between (Red=100% survival) and Blue (You only survive when more than 50% press blue). Anybody who doesn't understand this and presses blue is the problem.
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Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@703Kyle @northernsizzle @yhdistyminen @karol So you think both parties should escalate and further erode democratic accountability?
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@northernsizzle @yhdistyminen @karol "Do you support this thing I will erase the moment it benefits me?"
I mean, you tried but this 2003 tactic doesn't work anymore
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Damn. GOP needs to take the lesson and do the same everywhere they can.
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ
Decision Desk HQ projects the VA Congressional Redistricting Referendum will Pass. While No currently has the lead, based on the location and size of the remaining vote, Yes will take the lead as soon as the remaining counties report. #DecisionMade: 8:25 PM EDT
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@Thisgingerviews @greendragonhq The state government has more influence on the crime rate than city government
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@greendragonhq Who said it wasn't? Your post wasn't about was or wasn't bad in 2014. You was purposely misleading in what you shared. No critical thinking involved. No breaking anything down.
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Sarah Huckabee and her fellow Republicans have absolutely destroyed the once great state of Arkansas.
Look how worse off they are now compared to in 2014 when they had a Democrat Governor.
Crime Rate (Violent Crime per 100,000)
🔵2014: 480
🔴2025: 579
Murder rate (Per 100,000)
🔵 2014: 5.6
🔴 2025: 7.3
Life Expectancy (at birth, in years)
🔵 2014: 76.1
🔴 2025 (latest final 2022): 73.9
Healthcare Ranking (1 best, lower number = better)
🔵 2014: 34th
🔴 2025: 49th
Education Ranking (varies by source; overall composite)
🔵 2014: 37th
🔴 2025: 47th
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births)
🔵 2014 baseline: 7.1
🔴 2023: 8.22
Obesity Rate (adults)
🔵 2014: 38%
🔴 Recent (2024 data): 49.3%
Federal Funding as % of State General Revenue
🔵 2014: 31%
🔴 2024: 38%
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@blightersort @hockeymed @LindeAron “That’s true if you think the relevant unit to consider is the individual” yes. Moving on
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that's true if you think the relevant unit to consider is the individual vote but that's not the relevant unit bc the United States is a union of states, not a union of individuals. so the relevant unit is the state and there is no reason Wyoming's contribution as agreed under the constitution should count less just because you think it should.
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there are in fact good civic arguments for the electoral college but they hinge on the fact that the united states is a union of states so things like the president (and in its original conception the senate) should be decided by state which, yes, may have different populations.
but today no one understands anything so everyone thinks it should just be popular national vote for everything.
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki
There's no good civic argument for the electoral college. It was arguably necessary to ensure the ratification of the Constitution, but it's an anti-democratic device that gives some American citizens far more voting power than others, based purely on where they live.
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@bumbadum14 So democrats stole an election while out of power but couldn’t do it while they were in power? 🤡
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You’re totally unreasonable if you think going to sleep and Trump having a super majority, then waking up the day after Election Day and:
- every swing state suddenly froze their counting
- multiple key swing counties had various catastrophic events
- every polling station boarded windows to prevent media oversight
- this fucking graph
Heath Mayo@HeathMayo
“Reasonable minds can disagree about the 2020 election.” No, they can’t. If you think the 2020 election was stolen, you are not a reasonable person. If you make that claim in a court of law and advise your client to act on that fraudulent premise, you should be disbarred.
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@Polymarket He has too. The democrats already said they will prosecute non crimes AGAIN.
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JUST IN: Trump says he will issue mass pardons to "everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval” before he leaves office.
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@johnddavidson @briannalyman2 Y’all neo-confederates worried about how much you’re gonna be forgiven huh?
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11 years ago, on the 150th anniversary of Appomattox, I wrote about how the conduct of Grant and Lee on that fateful morning of April 9, 1865, offers a profound example of grace in both victory and defeat—and in particular how Lee’s acceptance of defeat and insistence on reconciliation marked him as one of history’s great Americans:
If ever the vanquished had reason to be bitter, or a victor had cause to be punitive, it was Lee and Grant. Yet their comportment at Appomattox stands today as a testament to the ideals of national reconciliation, goodwill, and honor and respect for one’s enemy. In his epic narrative history of the Civil War, Shelby Foote recounts two instances from Appomattox that suggest Lee and Grant were both thinking of the greater good, keenly aware that an enduring peace depended in part on their humility and generosity.
Early on the morning of April 9, Lee called a conference with his generals so they could give their opinions on surrender. All of them concurred that under the circumstances surrender was the only option, except the young Brigadier General Edward Alexander, who, writes Foote, “proposed that the troops take to the woods, individually and in small groups, under orders to report to the governors of their respective states. That way, he believed, two thirds of the army would avoid capture by the Yankees.”
Lee gently rebuked Alexander, reminding him, “We must consider its effect on the country as a whole.” The men, he said, “would be without rations and under no control of officers. They would be compelled to rob and steal in order to live. They would become mere bands of marauders, and the enemy’s cavalry would pursue them and overrun many sections that may never have occasion to visit. We would bring on a state of affairs it would take the country years to recover from.” Alexander would later write: “I had not a single word to say in reply. He had answered my suggestion from a plane so far above it that I was ashamed of having made it.”
Grant’s terms of surrender were remarkable for their leniency on the Confederate Army. Although the rebels would be required to turn over their arms, artillery, and private property, Grant added an impromptu final sentence: “This will not embrace the side arms of the officers, nor their private horses or baggage.” At Lee’s request, he also allowed Confederate cavalrymen and artillerists who owned their own horses and mules to keep them, reasoning that most were small farmers and would not be able to put in a crop “to carry themselves and their families through the next winter without the aid of the horses they are now riding.”
At this crucial moment, it was most important to Grant and Lee that the soldiers return home safely and get on with civilian life as soon as possible. Returning to his men, Lee told them, “I have done the best I could for you. Go home now, and if you make as good citizens as you have soldiers, you will do well, and I shall always be proud of you.” En route back to his headquarters, Grant heard salutes and cheering begin to rise up from nearby Union batteries. He sent orders to have them stopped. “The war is over,” he said. “The rebels are our countrymen again.”
thefederalist.com/2015/04/09/rem…
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