Bitter Basket

@WSJ @WSJFreeEx @WSJopinion @robkhenderson Obviously, there’s a political segment of the population that despises private industry or any institution that isn’t governmental. They always subtly justify shoplifting and are proponents of light punishments for it. Mostly because they hate capitalism and profit.

From @WSJFreeEx via @WSJOpinion: A shoplifter who calls it shoplifting is simply a shoplifter. A shoplifter who calls it “microlooting” is signaling education, upbringing and cultural capital, writes @robkhenderson. on.wsj.com/4ugAVT5

@patrick_oshag Current SP500 PE is 30. Forward PE is 20. Earnings drive valuations. I’ll buy into that situation ALL day long.

@patrick_oshag 1929: No SEC. No margin rules. No insider trading rules. No capital requirements for banks. Completely different. The amount of margin used back then was 10 times today. Price drops, people get called to pay back margin, panic sell. Not the case today.

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

@escapefrommelos Everyone with a bad credit score: “Credit scores are a sham”.

this kind of thing is much more common than most Americans realize foreigners (spiritual and literal) blow through credit cards, rack up debt, then drop everything and go back to their country of origin.

@TheRonnieVShow Absurd. The money in AI is in enterprise computing, not consumers. MSFT is in a better position than anyone for enterprise AI integration with their Dynamic ERP system and Azure data capabilities. Not to mention the Office suite. They have a huge backlog of customers already.

It's so over for $MSFT Claude will will replace them by next year.

@LanceRoberts The markets been flat for six months and the biggest companies (MAG 7) had a huge dip the last two months. It’s about time the market surges.

Bears on X: "This market makes no sense why it is hitting all-time highs with the dollar crashing, oil surging, and the end of the world upon us." Market: "Profits."

@thecostofwork @MatrixMysteries Grandparents lived in a 960 sq ft home shaped like a box with 5 or more people living in it on average. That was the average size. It’s now 2400 sq ft using three times the materials, three times the construction labor and with much fewer people living in it on average.

She's not doing anything wrong. Her grandparents worked the same hours and covered a house, a car and a family on one income. The work didn't change. What the work buys did. The path forward she can't find isn't missing because she isn't looking hard enough. It's missing because the purchasing power her effort should produce is being absorbed before it reaches her paycheck.

“I work nonstop — and I still can’t pay my bills.” A young American broke down describing the stress of working nonstop and still falling behind. Rent. Bills. Food. No path forward. This is crushing young Americans.

@LeftistAura @MatrixMysteries You know a more successful economic system ?

@MatrixMysteries Isn’t capitalism beautiful?

@InvestFreedom05 It’s a given. The money for AI is in enterprise customers. With the Dynamics 365 ERP and Office suite combined with Azure cloud services, that whole ecosystem is the best entry point out there for business AI.

$MSFT will be a $750 stock in 5 years…. *BOOKMARK THIS*

@YoungGun8140 I just watched a video where a single woman with five kids said her man needs to make $800K a year. Then I see this.

I’m glad someone is finally telling these women the truth! #Birdhands

@chadwahl @basispointpod If you know business ERP systems, the guy knows exactly what he’s talking about.

$MSFT "Microsoft's software moat is not going anywhere, the product is just too sticky and did not deserve to be down 35% because of a slight miss on Azure."

@designedbyabin @basispointpod Nope. Google Enterprise isn’t even the in same product category as the Microsoft ERP suite. It’s apples and oranges. Google enterprise simply is a front-end collaboration platform. Microsoft is a COMPLETE enterprise operating system - only a ERP system like SAP is comparable.

@basispointpod Are you sure: x.com/i/status/20478…

@basispointpod Bought MSFT extensively the last two month. This guy knows what he’s talking about. The money for AI is in enterprise software. And Microsoft has an ERP/user product suite that simply doesn’t exist anywhere.

@dibsTERMINAL @burrytracker Yes. It’s a smart call to go long. The MSFT multiple is obviously quite low. But even if it stays here (it won’t), earnings growth is going to push the valuation up.

@burrytracker This is a pairs trade, not a bullish tech call. Long MSFT while buying QQQ/SOXX puts means Burry expects MSFT to outperform the broader tech index even if the sector falls. He's not bullish on tech; he's betting MSFT preserves value relative to the semiconductor/growth basket.

Michael Burry just bought one of the worst performing Big Tech stocks of 2026 He opened a new position in Microsoft $MSFT, per his Substack However, he's buying hedges at the same time: • Nvidia: Jan 2027 puts • QQQ: Jan and Mar 2027 puts • SOXX: Jan 2027 puts

@AMS_HDiver @burrytracker You should get out. Even if the multiple stays at this level (it won’t), earning growth will drive up the valuation.

@burrytracker I can't say I hope it goes well for him, I'm just enjoying my position

@LukeSimpleDiv AVGO META PAWN

@BitterBasket Agree! I’ve bought in the dip at $360 but today is till a great buy! Did you buy anything else?

Why not buy $MSFT at one of the lowest valuations in the last 10 Years? Are you a buyer here?

@TedPillows Thanks ! I’ve ignored predictions for 40 years and I’ll ignore this. Have a good day !

The S&P 500 will trade around 6,000 sometime in 2026. A drop of 15% from the current level.

@Intl_Relations0 @Grok what does it do

🔴A man made a risky move by stepping into a tidal pool after the tide receded and touching live sea anemones that contains living cels. 🌊😬 Definitely not the smartest idea.

@CurtisDaly_ At least Boomers could say “unfathomable”

We were raised to be adults in a world that no longer exists