Conor Kelly

@corncobanalysis Can we get an arizona turnout explainer?

x.com/Garrett_Archer… it has happened

if R's fall under Other here that would be incredible

@NapervillePol How's it line up to 2022?

Looking at Arizona numbers I legit thinks Trump might be winning the early vote again. And the late ballot shift D

@sixtysixwards Could you share some info on how you deal with conflicting info (e.g., differences in voter numbers, unrealistic ones)?

Thank you to the folks who have flagged some fraudulent activity. I have some protections in place, we’ll see if they work Ultimately, this is just a fun way to spend Election day together, and not some critical piece of election infrastructure .

@DjsokeSpeaking @JonahLandergan Oh yeah, that's a big bump on last days of primary. I was one of those! Thanks

@AntiMattersWX @DjsokeSpeaking Thanks! Would be interested to see a take on it. It's a pretty different story from 2020 in an all-mail state

@CohoKelly @DjsokeSpeaking DJ has previously mentioned that they will catch up

@JonahLandergan @DjsokeSpeaking Of course not. Just putting in the context of overall turnout in Dem-leaning states

@CohoKelly @DjsokeSpeaking Washington and Oregon? Those states aren’t competitive

@norbert_d_d @DrSkywalker14 @blockedfreq Idk if there's any baked-in assumptions about how the D/R difference in early votes translates to actual margin (including independents), but it doesn't seem to be configurable in the tool

@norbert_d_d @DrSkywalker14 @blockedfreq It's a cool site! My take is: (1) The default setting has Rs winning E-Day vote 60-40 (that's a setting you can change) (2) Assuming that the actual difference in raw votes from early vote is just the difference between R and D registered who voted early. Less clear on that

🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 8 📥 692,561 votes cast 🔵 DEM: 450,379 - 43.5% returned 🔴 GOP: 179,208 - 35% returned 🟡 IND: 62,974 - 29.9% returned VBM Splits: 🔵 65% / 🔴 25.9% / 🟡 9.1% 🔷 DEM firewall: +271,171 📈 Return Edge: D+8.5 Thoughts ⬇️

@LPDonovan @lxeagle17 Correct answer

@lxeagle17 Fool me twice, not gonna get fooled again

Thought experiment: If Donald Trump was up by 1 in Nevada, up by 2 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and tied in North Carolina, would we be calling him a favorite? I think the answer is yes, but Harris is in this exact position, and is that how this is being covered?

@ECaliberSeven @votehub And 7/8 specials got bluer than 2020? But the combined total was redder. Is that right?

Welcome to a rare Special Elex Wednesday! After a LONG hiatus, we got our penultimate special before EDay, with LaMonica McIver overperforming in majority-black NJ-10 by 3%! 2024 Specials elections have voted 1.8% redder than 2020 Prez, and 23-24 specials have voted 1.6% bluer.

@UnhitchingHour @umichvoter @votehub Totally

@CohoKelly @umichvoter @votehub You have to be a hard-core voter to show up at a completely uncompetitive special election.

More votes are in for the NJ-10 special election Majority black precincts in Newark/Irvington are more or less staying at 2020 levels Highly educated, high income white precincts are barreling towards the Democrats tonight Follow along @votehub

@umichvoter @votehub What’s the benchmark you’re looking for here? No idea if this was impacted by redistricting. Could be a fun barometer of urban turnout/margin?

🚨 SPECIAL ELECTION WEDNESDAY Follow the last special election of this cycle in New Jersey's 10th congressional district at @votehub

@admcrlsn As someone who desperately hopes polls don’t miss in favor of Trump again, it is hard to argue against this (even with n=2) or dismiss out of hand

Read the entire thread. It’s completely tautological.

This is merely vibes-based 2016 and 2020 PTSD, and is only really is true if you believe that polling error works in one direction with Trump on the ballot (quite a confident position based on n=2). Pretty much every piece of empirical evidence we have points to a coin flip.

@votehub Confirmed my suspicion that I've never lived outside of a liberal bubble before

@votehub Had never been able to see precincts around my alma mater before (had been missing from similar NYT tool). Neat!

We're excited to launch an ambitious project: the entire country mapped at a granular level for the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections. This interactive lets you toggle between overall results, dot densities, shifts, and more, with data at state, county, and block group level.

@Ragnarok_1er @NateSilver538 I think Beacon/Shaw is Fox

Weird update today. Harris ticked up slightly in our national polling average but lost ground in our forecast and is now <50% vs. Trump. One reason for that is the model's convention bounce adjustment, which affects the forecast but not the average. natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-…

@Ragnarok_1er @NateSilver538 Oh, interesting. When sorting by influence the NYT poll from July shows up first, so I thought it must be missing. Thanks!

@CohoKelly @NateSilver538 NYT/Siena is there, but it has 0 influence which is why you don't see it in the first 3 pages. Sort by date and you'll see it :

@NateSilver538 Any reason your "Polls included in our model" table doesn't reference NYT/Siena from a few weeks ago? It's also interesting to see the high rate of decay in influence for polls over time. Emerson poll today worth 10x polls from a couple weeks ago at a time when polling is scant

But she's also got another problem: it's been a while since we've seen a poll showing Harris leading in Pennsylvania. A high-quality poll showing Harris ahead in PA would make a big difference right now.