Dan Held
80.8K posts
Dan Held
@danheld
Follow me to learn about Bitcoin. Fractional CMO. Prev: Head of Marketing @Krakenfx | Growth @Uber @Blockchain. Founder Zeroblock/Interchange (both acq)
NYC/Austin Katılım Temmuz 2013
1.2K Takip Edilen960.4K Takipçiler
Final day at The Block today. Was a hell of a ride.
Thanks to everyone who supported me with articles, podcasts, revenue deals over the years 🙏 really appreciate it
Gonna take a few months off to detox from crypto and walk my puppy. Lfg 🫡
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Tesla - SpaceX Merger
Since discussions regarding a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla show no signs of ending, I would like to offer a brief statement with my thoughts on the matter here.
There will be no merger involving a 1:1 valuation ratio between SpaceX and Tesla, as Tesla shareholders would not approve it. Why? Because SpaceX’s major cash flow streams lie in the future, whereas Tesla’s are already in the realization phase.
Consequently, we are currently witnessing a rally in Tesla stock—one which, in my opinion, could climb relatively quickly to just about $700 once it breaks past its all-time high (ATH) of $500.
Tesla stock represents tangible potential for cash flow, revenue, and profit that is largely situated in the short-to-medium term; SpaceX, conversely, must first build the necessary infrastructure—including in-orbit data centers—before it can realize its substantial profits and that will take time.
Tesla shareholders are well aware of this fact and will therefore only consent to a merger if the terms of the exchange ratio reflect this reality. Since Elon is conscious of this, he will be compelled to assign a commensurate premium to Tesla stock—thereby making the merger proposal sufficiently attractive for Tesla shareholders to vote in favor of it.
This holds true entirely irrespective of how SpaceX stock is valued or how it performs following its IPO.
There are some voices predicting that SpaceX stock will surge immediately after its IPO, only to suffer a sharp subsequent decline; while this scenario may well materialize, it would have no adverse impact on Tesla shareholders. Elon will not proceed with a merger until SpaceX stock has established a solid trading foundation- a prerequisite that may, in and of itself, ensure Tesla shareholders receive a significant premium.
Given these underlying conditions, Tesla shareholders stand to benefit in any scenario: both from the SpaceX IPO - thanks to the ensuing hype surrounding Elon’s ventures - and from a potential merger, which is unlikely to take place until 2027.
None of us knows what will happen since stock markets, and particularly the price movements of individual stocks, are unpredictable yet I see not enormous risks, but rather opportunities for an increase in Tesla’s share price. $tsla
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@Gwynne_Shotwell @Starlink Except ASTS is actually David, and yes, they will crush you with this superior product.
You don’t have the tech, you don’t have the right spectrum, and you’re 5+ yrs behind at best behind an enormous IP moat.
You can tweet, but physics is physics.
Good luck to all.
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Weeeelllll, I guess @Starlink Mobile is doing something right! It’s David and Goliath (X3) all over again — I’m bettin’ on David :)
Brian Basson@BassonBrain
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile said on Thursday they agreed in principle to form a new JV with an aim to address long-time coverage gaps, especially in rural areas, by using satellite-based technologies. This comes as the industry increasingly worries about what Elon Musk’s @Starlink Mobile might do to shake up the terrestrial mobile space. Musk has said he’s not going to put the U.S. terrestrial carriers out of business, but at the same time he’s expanding Starlink and buying up more spectrum...
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Delta Airlines has responded to Elon Musk's post below with a statement:
“The assertion in question is not accurate. Incorporating Delta Sync with Starlink would have been permitted under SpaceX's in-flight Wi-Fi agreement."
Delta on why it chose Amazon's LEO: "This agreement gives us the fastest and most cost-effective technology available to better connect the world today, and it deepens our work with a global leader that shares our ambition to build what’s next."
The airline is targeting 2028 to start offering Leo in-flight Wi-Fi on about half of its fleet. The rest of the jets will continue to use Viasat and Hughesnet.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Not exactly. SpaceX requires that there be no annoying “portal” to use Starlink. Starlink WiFi must just work effortlessly every time, as though you were at home. Delta wanted to make it painful, difficult and expensive for their customers. Hard to see how that is a winning strategy.
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If @Tesla & @SpaceX merge, there will be a very intense shareholder vote to get this approved
Here's my 2 cents & how I'm voting.
Yes. Whatever Elon & management say is fair, is a yes from me.
Why? Tesla & SpaceX are valued at roughly $1.5T & $1.75T respectively. If SpaceX buys Tesla (makes sense because of Elon's dual voting class shares), maybe they do it a ~20% premium to $1.5T and make it a 50/50 merger of equals.
Tesla shareholders will complain about not getting compensated for @robotaxi success, @Tesla_Optimus, etc ...
But the truth is, both companies are very similar in size with parrelel upside trajectories. Additionally, they are joined at the hip with Elon leading them both and the Terafab project.
Tesla is a ~$100B revenue run-rate, barely growing, valued at nearly 20X sales in this merger... extremely high for a low gross margin company. Giving $TSLA arguably ~$1T of value based on future product lines that aren't material yet
SpaceX is a $25B revenue run-rate company with @Starlink already 0 to 1 poised to hit a $30-40B revenue run-rate in the next 18 months. With MUCH HIGHER profitability than Tesla's current business. That means even thought Tesla has 4X the revenue of SpaceX, it's profitability is actually equal in size.
When I look at the intrinsic earnings power ($15B of operating cashflow/yr) of Tesla & SpaceX they are actually very similar. With each of them spending all their operating cash flow and more on CAPEX for future projects (including @Xai in SpaceX).
Each getting a very aggressive valuation based on future growth prospects.
It's almost impossible to predict how the earnings/cashflow will evolve. Especially because a lot of it depends on accounting and how the Terafab/Optimi in Space is structured.
Long story short, it's very complicated, and millions of hot take articles will be written about it ... but all in all, a merger of equals, or roughly that, looks fair to me.
Another kicker to consider and why I'm voting yes. I trust Elon to do right by shareholders.
$TSLA is up 34,687% since it's 2010 IPO, not bad.
Tesla has a management team with a track record of making crazy ambitious goals and executing. They're vision for an intergalactic future gets even grander as a combined entity with SpaceX.
Let them cook.
Full disclaimer I'm a $TSLA & SpaceX investor.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin back at $82,000 following CLARITY Act passing.
$85,000 $BTC last line of defense for bears.
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@Vivek4real_ Looks like they’re finally getting it after all this time
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He’s fully allocated to Bitcoin? Pump every asset on earth to record highs except his bags.
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Not exactly. SpaceX requires that there be no annoying “portal” to use Starlink.
Starlink WiFi must just work effortlessly every time, as though you were at home.
Delta wanted to make it painful, difficult and expensive for their customers. Hard to see how that is a winning strategy.
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Delta rejected adopting SpaceX's @Starlink on its fleet because it wanted to provide internet connectivity to passengers via the Delta Sync portal, instead of the Starlink-branded portal. Delta has since chosen to partner with Amazon's LEO.
This will result in Delta falling behind many of its competitors in offering high-speed WiFi onboard, as many other carriers are already offering or installing Starlink, whereas Amazon's LEO airplane WiFi for Delta is still a couple year away (or more).
Satellites currently in orbit:
• SpaceX's Starlink: 10,400
• Amazon's LEO: 300
(Delta rejection info according to Ron Baron)
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People always talk about the pain of being broke. Not many people talk about the pain in the middle zone (often 7 figs), where many people lose their hunger and stop chasing.
Comfortable enough to never have to work a normal job, not enough money to fuck around forever.
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Today's Varda news is that we're making space drugs with United Therapeutics ($25b in market cap)
First time a public company has dedicated their balance sheet to making a physical product in space
Ba-boom
delian@zebulgar
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Dan Held retweetledi
What SpaceX is pulling off right now is actually insane. No one else in history has done this simultaneously and not even close
→ Down in Texas, Starship V3 is fully fueled and gearing up for Flight 12 next Tuesday. SpaceX is about to launch the biggest vehicle ever built from a brand-new pad
→ Over in Florida, SpaceX is launching a Dragon cargo ship to the ISS today. It’s wild that flying supplies to a space station just feels like a normal Wednesday
→ Meanwhile in California, SpaceX quietly launched classified satellites for the US government on Monday (NROL-172) and it barely even made the news
And the craziest part is that they’re casually squeezing in THREE more Falcon 9 launches (Starlink and Globalstar) right in the middle of all this
Six launches. Three different launch sites. Three massive milestone missions
All in the span of just 8 days
SpaceX is in a league of its own
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