Recession Eraser

@spectatorindex Just blatantly lying and releasing useless statements as always

BREAKING: Trump has told aides he is willing to 'end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed', according to Wall Street Journal report.

@ZMCopely @NoLimitGains It was the plan all along . He bought the account

@NoLimitGains Did NoLimit finally sell out?

I’ve been building this for months and the waitlist is finally open, for a short time only. Subscribe and you’ll be the first to know when the doors officially open.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Cheers.

@traderhc I mean if you’re confident on your thesis , why not build a short position on that big green candle ?

The first bounce after a five-week selloff is the most expensive trade in markets. Every technical signal will look perfect. RSI resetting from oversold. MACD crossing up. "Support held." Retail sees a textbook buy. Institutions see a liquidity window to sell into. This has played out the same way in every major drawdown I've traded through. 2018 Q4, March 2020, every bear rally in 2022. The first bounce averages 3 to 5 days before rolling over to retest or break the lows. It's not random. It's structural. Buyback blackouts mean no corporate bid. Negative gamma means dealers aren't reinforcing the move higher. CTA rebalancing is mechanical, not emotional. They need sustained price above trigger levels before they flip. So the first bounce runs on short covering and retail enthusiasm. That's it. And that fuel burns in days, not weeks. The hardest trade right now isn't buying the dip. It isn't staying short. It's doing absolutely nothing when the first green candle shows up. Sitting on your hands while fintwit screams "bottom is in" takes more discipline than any entry you'll ever make. The real setup comes on the second test. When the tourists are gone and only real buyers remain. If you survived this drawdown with capital intact, don't give it back chasing the relief rally. What's your rule for re-entry after a prolonged flush?

@kpak82 The icing on the cake would be if we gap down on Monday morning.

Since the beginning of $ES_F trading in 1997, on all initial pullback from ATHs, when a monthly candle drops below 5/9ema and passes through 20ema/sma on the same candle, the candle has always closed the month above 20ema. 🍻🐂

@KyleShitposting @0xMerp How long have u been doing this for ?

@0xMerp just wait until thursday afternoon/friday every week like i have been. you'll make less, but you'll consistently win.

Shorting equities or longing oil here seems like a bet that they won’t push even bigger more scam headlines throughout the week Which sounds like a really bad bet to take

@traderhc @1PeterCarpenter Appreciate ur insights as well. Where do u see oil/energy in the near term(30 days)?

Appreciate that, Peter. Energy derivatives background is a serious edge right now . $XLE leading everything with +10.7% on the month while $XLK sits at -3%. That's not a random rotation, that's the market telling you where real pricing power lives when oil's ripping 5% in a session. Your cross-asset instincts from the energy pits probably have you seeing things equity-only traders miss. Glad the posts are useful . always good to have someone in the room who understands how physical commodity flows actually transmit into financial markets.

Hm. The biggest risk to this market isn't the Fed or PMI data. It's a phone call from Tokyo. USD/JPY sitting at 158.69. That's the exact zone where BOJ intervened in 2024. $IWM up 1.36% today, outperforming $SPY 2:1. That's not fundamental rotation. That's the fingerprint of yen carry trade leverage pouring into small caps. Borrow yen at zero, deploy into US risk assets, collect the 3% differential. Works great until it doesn't. $VIX term structure is in backwardation with front month above 26. The options market is pricing near-term danger while equities party. We saw this movie on March 6. Carry unwind hit, $IWM dropped 2.6%, $BTC dropped 4.4%. The most leveraged names get hit first and hardest. I think $IWM gives back today's entire move within five sessions if USD/JPY cracks 160. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller has never ended well. Where are you on the carry trade right now?

@KeithMcCullough Why does the market still react to the bs he says though ?!

Sad and embarrassing for America 🇺🇸

@cirnosad Might get to see the biggest TACO ever tonight.

@aleabitoreddit Wow very well done , congrats! What’s the best move/trades from here though?

I may have outperformed the index just a tiny bit? It’s as simple as riding the Photonics and Memory Supercycles from $AXTI to $SNDK. Just doing this for fun now.

@Dr_Singularity Don’t we have to achieve AGI first or are we already there ?

The loop is closing. This will lead us to ASI/Singularity. 2026 is going to be insane.

@adaptiveai Adaptive

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@rickyho_1989 @Manny_NZ Within months ?

@Manny_NZ Expect more. For context: we are both expecting US$200/bbl oil price

Me: What’s your take on Japan in this environment with oil prices rising so quickly? Millennium PM: I actually think a reverse yen carry trade could be on the cards. Me: That’s a big call. What’s the mechanism? Millennium PM: It starts with oil. Japan imports almost all of its energy. When oil prices rise sharply, Japan’s trade deficit widens immediately because the import bill jumps. Me: Which weakens the yen. Millennium PM: Exactly. A larger trade deficit puts downward pressure on the JPY, and once the yen weakens the situation actually worsens because oil is priced in USD. So a weaker yen means Japan effectively pays more for the same barrel of oil in yen terms. Me: So the currency depreciation amplifies imported inflation. Millennium PM: Right. First you get energy inflation, then it spreads through transportation, electricity, and eventually broader consumer prices. At some point the risk becomes a wage–price spiral, which is something Japan has tried to avoid for decades. Me: But the Bank of Japan can’t control oil prices. Millennium PM: True, but they can control the currency channel. If imported inflation keeps worsening because the yen weakens further, the BoJ may be forced to hike rates — not to fight oil directly, but to defend the yen and keep inflation expectations anchored. Me: And that’s where the carry trade problem begins. Millennium PM: Exactly. The entire yen carry trade depends on ultra-low Japanese funding costs. If the BoJ raises rates, even modestly, it undermines the economics of borrowing yen to fund higher-yielding assets abroad. Me: Which means positions start getting unwound. Millennium PM: Yes. Once the carry starts reversing, capital flows back into yen funding markets and leveraged investors are forced to reduce exposure. Those unwinds rarely stay contained — they tend to create volatility across global equities, commodities, and emerging markets. Me: So rising oil could indirectly trigger a global carry unwind. Millennium PM: Exactly. Oil → wider trade deficit → weaker yen → imported inflation → BoJ forced to hike → carry trade reversal. That’s the chain reaction I’m watching.

@cryptochef425 @zachxbt @NoLimitGains Joined since 2013, earliest post on the timeline is Oct 2025. Come on man. Also, current account owner is very patient to play the “long” game

@zachxbt @NoLimitGains Bot or no bot... the data being shared speaks for itself. How do you explain that?

@Osint613 TACO in action ?!

Trump on Iran: We may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we are going to make a deal. You are going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.

@MatthewPHoh @Natsecjeff We won’t see people saying TACO this time then ?

This is the strongest indication to me of the seriousness of the US threat to Iran. The US has deployed more than 2/3 of its available E3 command/control aircraft to Europe and the Middle East. The E3 is an incredibly important aircraft. For those unfamiliar, it is the large airplane that looks like an airliner, but with a revolving radar disc on top. The airplane is loaded with an air crew whose job is to observe, manage and control the airspace in its area. It is especially important for directing fighters and ground/sea based missile interceptors against Iranian missiles and drones. USAF has only 16 E3s total, so 6 of 16 E3s deployed is significant by itself, BUT mission capable rates are 55% for E3s, meaning only 9 are possibly available for operations. The full mission capable rate for the E3 is likely lower, so there may only be 7 or 8 E3s deployable. The Air Force may just have deployed nearly every E3 they have available This is an example of something the Air Force genuinely wouldn’t do unless it was absolutely necessary. There’s no PR value in this, you get that from the deployed carriers and fighter squadrons. You only deploy these en masse if you need to because they will be used. The likelihood of that decision not being made is getting smaller and smaller. twz.com/air/major-depl….

@hugomercierooo Twin

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@AlexFinn @Ryan_Kubanka Great answer Alex, and I appreciate your honesty instead of trying to fight and find an edge over clearly what’s better than human productivity/efficiency at this point.

@Ryan_Kubanka It wrote the script for my youtube video that released this morning That video is performing 4x better than any other video I've ever released It will easily clear thousands of dollars of youtube ad revenue over the next couple months If that is 'worthless' then I ❤️ worthless

Yesterday I installed ClawdBot on this mac mini. An AI agent assistant that works for you 24/7 Since then it's accomplished all of this for me while I lived my life: • Wrote 3 Youtube scripts • Wrote my next newsletter • Researched 26 other AI accounts and took notes on what's working • Created a daily brief that has all the latest AI news • Built it's own project management system • Spun up it's own employees. I now have 2 levels of AI agent employees under me • A complete 2nd brain system to replace Notion Yeah. We literally have AGI

@MLaHatte @AlexFinn U mean windows right? I’m wondering the same and thinking is everyone replying under this thread on Mac OS lol

@AlexFinn Have they said when it will be available on PC?

Claude Cowork is incredible Yesterday it saved me thousands of dollars and HOURS of my time I had it completely manage my finances while also planning my business and writing drafts of my content If you haven't used it yet, you need to. Here's your complete beginner's guide:

@signulll Only available for max sub and mac OS at the moment ?

this is genuinely good. like quietly devastating good. how did anthropic beat chatgpt to this?