Energy Policy Research Foundation

Gulf States #Nitrogen #Fertilizer Production accounts for ~10% of global production. But #Hormuz blockage is preventing #exports @Fertilizer_Inst says the #Gulf accounts for 43% of global urea trade. Other Gulf nitrogen-based fertilizer production make up 25% of global trade. #OOTT #ONGT #EnergyTwitter #EnergySecurity #FoodSecurity #NaturalGas

#QatariLNG is now offline, #exports are halted through the #Hormuz #Qatar🇶🇦️ contributes 20% to global LNG #exports #Europe is dependent on 11% of #QatariLNG for its #LNG needs; #Aasia, 23% #OOTT #ONGT #EnergyTwitter #EnergySecurity #NaturalGas #Hormuz

#3 #SPR|#Inventories are a critical backstop to spiking prices #EnergyTwitter #NaturalGas #LNG #CrudeOil #Petroleum #Hormuz #OOTT #ONGT

#1 #Hormuz traffic has collapsed because of the #Gulf war. #EnergyTwitter #NaturalGas #LNG #CrudeOil #Petroleum #Hormuz #OOTT #ONGT

Since 2020, #China has become the dominant buyer of #Iran|s exports #OOTT #ONGT #EnergyTwitter #EnergySecurity #CrudeOil

🇺🇸U.S. #sanctions policy against 🇮🇷Iran|s #Petroleum #Exports has varied. W increased exports $ have accrued in #Iran|s treasury

U.S. #LNG production is has grown rapidly since 2016. Currently, there is 18 BCF/d of #export capacity with an additional 15 BCF/d under construction with full commissioning expected by 2031. Another 13.3 BCF/d has received #permitting|approval @EQTCorp @Cheniere @VentureGlobal @cnxcorp @Enbridge $KMI @EnergyTransfer $WMB @NatResources @HouseCommerce @ENERGY #EnergyTwitter #OOTT #ONGT #EnergyTransition 🔵#NaturalGas🔵️ #EnergySecurity👀️

Colder and longer 2025-2026 #winter|s in #Europe, including #Ukraine, require more #naturalgas drawn from inventories. Shift from #Pipelines to #LNG has helped. But Replenishment is lagging. @TotalEnergies @ENTSO_E @ENTSOG @GIEBrussels #EnergyTwitter #OOTT #ONGT #LNG

Colder and longer 2025-2026 #winter|s in #Europe, including #Ukraine, require more #naturalgas drawn from inventories. Shift from #Pipelines to #LNG has helped. But Replenishment is lagging. @TotalEnergies #EnergyTwitter #OOTT #ONGT #LNG

At current #RIN costs and mandated #biofuel blend rates, @EPRINCDC|s research shows that the #RFS adds 27 cents to a gallon of transportation fuel. This implies a $52 billion annual U.S. economic cost. #RenewableFuelStandard #SmallRefineryExemptions #OOTT #ONGT #Refining #Biofuels #Energy $MPC $VLO $CVE $PBF $BG @Cargill @CHSInc @ADMUpdates @EPA @ENERGY @Interior

Exciting news! We're thrilled to welcome Diana Furchtgott-Roth as EPRINC's newest Distinguished Fellow. Diana is an Oxford-educated economist who served in the Trump, Reagan, and both Bush administrations. She's authored 6 books on economic policy and has been a valued friend and thought leader at our events for years. Welcome to the team, Diana! 🎉

#WinterStormFern came late to #NewEngland But #Power demand soared to averages of 16 GWs from 11 GWs w peaks of 20 GWs. Dispatchable generation accounted for 92% of power. #Wind carried the balance. W no extra #NaturalGas, #Distillate|#Diesel|#HeatingOil added 5 to 8 GWs (31% to 43% of ttl gen) of power . #Distillate is costly, avging 4.5x of #NaturalGas

#WinterStormFern came late to #NewEngland But #Power demand soared to averages of 16 GWs from 11 GWs w peaks of 20 GWs. Dispatchable generation accounted for 92% of power. #Wind carried the balance. W no extra #NaturalGas, #Distillate|#Diesel|#HeatingOil added 5 to 8 GWs (31% to 43% of ttl gen) of power . #Distillate is costly, avging 4.5x of #NaturalGas

If you want to know the true value of an energy source, pay attention to how it performs when you need it most.

Movie review from Guardian on Melania. theguardian.com/film/2026/jan/…

@EPRINC_DC @ERCOT_ISO @MISO_energy @pjminterconnect Stress regimes reveal the real constraint. Dispatchable capacity and fuel security carry the grid, not averages. If policy ignores that, the market will price it anyway.

#WinterStormFern moved across the #MidContinent and #MidAtlantic on Jan 22-26. #Power demand soared to peaks of 298 GWs across @ERCOT_ISO, @MISO_energy, @PJMinterconnect w dispatchable sources delivering 85% of total. Notably, #coal, with a strong presence in @MISO_energy & @PJMinterconnect areas, generated an average of 54 GWs combined for these two regions during the storm period. with peak #coal reliance hitting 44% in @PJMinterconnect. #FederalPowerAct|s 202(c) exemptions kept 43 #Coal plants (26 GWs total capacity) running in @PJMinterconnect #OOTT #ONGT #EnergyTwitter #NaturalGas #Coal #Nuclear #EnergySecurity #WinterStorm

While mandated nominal #ethanol blend rates have risen above 10%, #refiner|s and #blender|s have kept it at 10% through the use of #RINs (#environmental credits) and #SREs (small refinery exemptions). Also, #FillingStation operators do not want to incur liabilities for damage to motor vehicles not capable of using higher blends and possible corrisive damage to their fuel tanks. Currently, legislation is in play to potentially amend #RFS provisions diminishing the use of #SREs and reduce the use of #RINs to bypass 10+% mandates. @EPRINC_DC|s research shows that the #RFS costs the U.S. economy between $14 and $45 billion per year add 11 to 35 cents of cost per gallon of fuel. #RenewableFuelStandard #SmallRefineryExemptions #OOTT #ONGT #Refining #Biofuels #Energy $MPC $VLO $CVE $PBF $BG @Cargill @CHSInc @ADMUpdates

U.S. #Venezuel|an #CrudeOil #Imports through the years Prior to 2019, @realDonaldTrump #sanctions, U.S. imported 730 kbd of Venezuelan crude (avg 9.25% of total). More recently, following @JoeBiden easing of some sanctions, Venezuelan imports averaged 170 kbd (2.6% of total). #Context #OOTT #ONGT #Refining #Energy $CVX #PDVSA $XOM

#Canada|s and #Venezuela|s #Crude|s require considerable #diluent. #Condensate (in two forms: #lease and #plant) are one diluent source. #US and #Canada produce considerable amounts of condensate. But rising Venezuelan production will increase condensate demand, potentially tightening that market. #OOTT #ONGT #Refining #Energy $CVX #PDVSA $XOM #NaturalGasoline #PentanesPlus #LeaseCondensate #PlantCondensate