Engine Collector

At the 1992 Presidential Debate Ross Perot warned us all as two wolves stood by and sneered with glee.

The Brent Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) swap—is a critical instrument used to bridge the gap between the physical and futures markets. In simple terms, it reflects the price difference between Dated Brent (physical North Sea cargoes) and Frontline Brent (the first-month ICE Brent futures contract). In recent sessions, the DFL has surged into record backwardation, approaching USD 11/bbl and surpassing the previous peak seen in 2022. This sharp widening underscores an intensifying scramble for prompt physical cargoes, clearly highlighting the growing stress and dislocation in the market as buyers compete to secure immediate supply. Chart source: Bloomberg

A fertiliser miss for the ministers reference.

Activist: "The water usage for beef is obscene. Thousands of litres per kilogram." Farmer: "That's rainfall." Activist: "What?" Farmer: "The figure includes all the rain that falls on the pasture. The cows drink from the stream. The rain falls whether there's a cow here or not." Activist: "It's still water consumption." Farmer: "Should I stop the rain falling on my field?" Activist: "Grow crops instead. More efficient." Farmer: "This is a 35-degree slope in the Welsh hills. Show me the crop." Activist: "Technology..." Farmer: "To make tractors climb mountains?" Activist: "There must be a solution." Farmer: "There is. It's called a cow." Activist: [checks phone]

The SAVE America Act doesn’t “Save” America. And this isn’t about voter ID. This bill requires everyone to re-register to vote in person and your driver’s license, REAL ID, or military ID aren’t even good enough. Imagine all of our seniors who don’t have valid passports and haven’t seen their birth certificates in decades? What about them? How hard will it be for them to register? And how do they get a passport if they can’t find their birth certificates? And what about the cost? If this becomes law, it will disenfranchise many Americans.

Remember that just yesterday, Tehran was reportedly floating a completely different condition: cargo paid in yuan. Today, it’s “any country except the U.S. and Israel can pass.” That is not a reopening. It is evidence the rules are being improvised in real time. And two days ago, on March 12, Iran tried to pose as reasonable by saying ships must coordinate with its navy to transit. Reuters also reported other selective assurances for passage, including a vessel changing its signaling to “China-owner” to get through. We’ve seen this before. During the Red Sea crisis in 2024, the Houthis offered similarly selective assurances in Bab el-Mandeb. In practice, it was confusing, chaotic, and did little to restore the normal flow of ships. Reuters reported that many vessels caught up in those attacks had no Israeli connection, and UNCTAD said Suez Canal transits fell 42% from peak levels. Shipping does not normalize because of slogans. It normalizes when passage is clear, verifiable, insurable, and durable. Right now, it is none of those things. So this is not Iran loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s PR spin designed to sound reasonable. Until owners, crews, charterers, and insurers can move without ad hoc political tests or special permission, the Strait remains squeezed.

BREAKING: Oil prices surge above $85/barrel on reports that US intelligence has begun to see indications that Iran is deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, per CBS. Oil prices are now up +$10/barrel in 50 minutes.

So, instead of depleting China's reserves, the US and its allies are depleting theirs? Is this a Chinese plan?

Do you want to talk about market manipulation? You can see it before your eyes! Disgusting!