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Exotic Robotic 🏳️🌈🧦
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Exotic Robotic 🏳️🌈🧦
@ExoticRobotic12
24 ⋅ aspiring twink ⋅ jorah mormont enthusiast ⋅ socdem ⋅ 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇪🇺 politics ⋅ katie hobbs’ strongest soldier
Katılım Ağustos 2017
1.6K Takip Edilen660 Takipçiler
@MappingFL alito furiously revising the opinion as we speak
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The key DeSantis argument hinges on the idea that SCOTUS will ban race considerations in redistricting at all
But this is based on a ruling that has not come. Even a VRA strike down may very well say “states can set their own guidelines”
Short version. Governor argument is BS
Jacob Ogles@jacobogles
But he says there's a tension with a prohibition on taking race into account. He says fact Callais was reargued shows the court will ultimately prohibit any consideration of race.
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@tencor_7144 'the oral arguments could mean anything and SCOVA upholding the stay could mean anything' isn't great engagement bait tho
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@conorsen @rgilbertwilson losing lucy mcbath was brutal for dems. instantly made this the highest choke-potential race for them.
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@rgilbertwilson There’s supposed to be an AJC poll coming out this week and I’m waiting to see that before deciding (other than I won’t be voting for Bottoms).
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There is some thought that the GOP has more high-profile contested races in the primary so even in a blue environment they should have a strong primary turnout — not so on day one.
Dj@DjsokeSpeaking
Day 1 of EV in Georgia 35.3k total votes (record for day 1 of a midterm primary) D+15.1 by ballot choice Day 1 of EV in 2022's primary was R+9 with 27.4k votes
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@baseballcrank it is 2026 and people are still pretending DOGE cared at all about the deficit rather than being a paper-thin front for le epic cracked magajugend owning the wokescold bureaucrat libs
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While DOGE could & should have been handled better, taking local losses as the cost of reforms to the budget for the whole nation is an inevitable tradeoff.
skep._@skep_observer
We have our answer. It seems that Trump has singlehandedly caused a blue wave in NOVA. Federal worker anger has not dissipated in the aftermath of DOGE. Loudoun voted YES to 10-1 by 21 points, outrunning Harris and Jay Jones. Yes put up massive margins among Asians in the east.
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@JustR_02 come on man desantis stated talking about redistricting in august 2025 you don’t have to pretend they mocked this entire idea up in a week
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Sen. Louise Lucas is a big reason why only 4 Florida Democrats may represent the state in Congress come next year, so I guess it is only fitting that they have her on this call.
Florida Democrats@FlaDems
TONIGHT: Florida's maps are being redrawn, and we're fighting back. Join House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Congressman Darren Soto, FL State Rep. Rita Harris, and VA Senate President Pro-Tem L. Louise Lucas for our Redistricting Night of Action. Register: bit.ly/4mPAaOk
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@JesusSavesPHL @TomEDewey1948 ‘well-liked’ is pushing it. uncontroversial, sure, which is why it’s still lean R even tho dems have landed the dream candidate.
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@ExoticRobotic12 @TomEDewey1948 No it’s not?
Dan Sullivan is a well-liked, multiple term incumbent.
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It is election night in November. You can only see the House results from the Northeast of America and it looks like this. How are you feeling?
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@JesusSavesPHL @TomEDewey1948 it's totally possible in a very good year for dems?
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@OriginalBad @hunterb73 @DrewSav if dems let the CBC screw them over because a bunch of dinosaurs refuse to give up their D+10 billion petty fiefdoms then they deserve to lose
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@hunterb73 @ExoticRobotic12 @DrewSav Problem is Democrats will listen to the CBC who will not want their seats bacon-mandered leaving Ds between a rock and a hard place.
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Jeffries will in all likelihood be Speaker for at least four years since the House never flips in pres cycles.
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@JacksonFujimori oh yh it's a dogfight but i think she can do it
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@ExoticRobotic12 definitely possible, i mean trump barely won in 2020 and she’s an overperformer, but i’d say that this is a tossup at best for her
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i’m looking at these numbers rn and i think Castor and Soto are both kinda screwed..
South FL imo is highly dependent on the type of hispanic population comprised in each district and we’ll see how much each nationality reverts
Joe@electionsjoe
Pres 2024, 2020, and 2016
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@conservative767 the lucasmander, assuming SCOVA agrees with the dems on the point of 'what does election day mean', is entirely legal - the VA constituion was amended to allow it.
desantismander 2.0 is just so obviously contradicts the FL constitution. SCOFL will allow it anyways ofc
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Literally just days ago, Hakeem Jeffries openly cheered for and supported a partisan 10-1 map in Virginia.
Now, he doesn’t like the taste of his own medicine!
Too bad! The Ronmander is here to stay!
Hakeem Jeffries@hakeemjeffries
The DeSantis Dummymander blatantly violates Florida’s Fair Districts Amendment banning partisan gerrymandering. It also violates the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution by nakedly targeting communities of color. See you in Court.
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@Pat_RickUSA >with the 2026 national environment looking to be to the right of 2020
you think the GB is going to be under D+3????
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With the 2026 national environment looking to be to the right of 2020, and Hispanics seemingly like they’ll also vote to the right of 2020, this would not be a dummymander
umichvoter@umichvoter
to draw out 5 democrats in florida Republicans must take out 3 Dems in South Florida But incumbents will inherit a bunch of Trump +3-4 seats by 2020 election metric
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@umichvoter build cred with trumpworld?
besides they can just do it again in 27 if things snap back harder than expected, it's not like anyone cares anymore.
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Agree
Which is why it's confusing why do this now
Dj@DjsokeSpeaking
The redistricting and gerrymandering fight is broadly about 2028 & not 2026 at this point anyway
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@ExoticRobotic12 @nikicaga Polanski der super Jew is smart, no one in the UK under 60 is scared of Putler and even over 60s are more scared of Dotard, you just worship Baal and Moloch because Satanyahu psyop'd you
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Lol Restore is stuck in low single digits
You WILL get the Faragereich and you WILL hate it for being too woke
Anchovy Pizza 🇺🇸@Anchovy_Pizza
Gonna be honest, I’m getting a little jealous of my British cousins as Restore gains momentum It seems like a genuinely exciting movement to be a part of, wish we had something like it over here
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@JonestownTruth @nikicaga zero world where that doesn't collapse within a year, polanski is a lunatic
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@nikicaga Thinking Farage will win is arm chair politics goy thinking, he's going to get ratfucked by a traffic light coalition
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@Jake_W those commissions were stupidly naive to pass without any sort of national ban, because obviously republicans just laughed at them and kept doing it.
if no one can do it, it takes away any reason to override independent commissions
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And the Dems can miss me with the national gerrymandering ban talk. If they're willing to manipulate two state constitutions to neuter existing independent commissions why should I trust them on a national ban?
Those commissions were supposedly enacted to stop gerrymandering!
Douglasville, GA 🇺🇸 English
IMO, what's good for the goose is good for the gander on gerrymandering. VA, CA, TX, & FL can all do it, as long as it's legal.
But playing with a state constitution to neuter a redistricting commission--only "temporarily!"--will have downstream consequences for the rule of law.
Douglasville, GA 🇺🇸 English
@JacobRubashkin dems would have to win 5 *more* seats than the 4 seats they get in desantismander 2.0 to make it a dummymander, and that's if you don't account for Fl-13 and FL-27 being semi-competitive on the old map. it's not a dummymander.
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Quick refresher for people when we get the underlying data.
A map is a "dummymander" if the ultimate outcome is worse than **the status quo** for the party that drew it, not worse than it was intended to be. A map is not a dummymander if it aims to pick up 4 and only picks up 2.
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict
NEW: per Fox News, new FL map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would target four Dem seats, aiming to convert a 20R-8D delegation to 24R-4D. But in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP. More from @CookPolitical soon. foxnews.com/politics/ron-d…
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@JustR_02 @ZacharyDonnini castor is a massive overperformer tho
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@ZacharyDonnini FL14 didn’t even vote for Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum in 2018. It’s a tough district for Dems.
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Republicans are probably under 50/50 to flip four House seats in Florida in 2026. At a minimum, Kathy Castor’s FL-14 race will be highly competitive.
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini
NEW — 2020 presidential results in key districts in the new Florida map. The map is highly aggressive and pretty risky for 2026. It is probably very effective in 2028 if there is a more neutral environment where the house is close, though there is still some risk.
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