Gabriel Iacoboni
12.3K posts
Another difficult result for Oregon Democrats: a repeal of the state’s gas tax increase from 40 to 46 cents is currently leading 82-18.
Conservative opponents placed the repeal on the ballot after Democrats, led by Governor Tina Kotek, approved the increase.
VoteHub@VoteHub
PROJECTION: Oregon Measure 120 Election Results: Raise Fuel Tax and Transportation Fees has failed.
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But something something Georgia is going blue.
OSZ@OpenSourceZone
Breaking: Republican aligned Charlie Bethel wins the Georgia State Supreme Court election Republicans sweep and win both Supreme Court races in Georgia tonight
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@BananaRep405 @lion_politics When turnout drops the incumbent party usually suffers.
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@ZacharyDonnini @DecisionDeskHQ Massie is losing the ED vote.
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We got a ton of votes in Mason County (now 80% reported per @DecisionDeskHQ) and it shifted 10 points towards Massie from the initial drop.
It is now our second datapoint showing Massie doing better as the ED vote comes in.
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I think people forget just how close the 2018 Texas Senate race was, and Talarico is consistently outpolling Beto. Paxton is also a way weaker candidate than Cruz was — impeached, indicted, the whole mess.
Add Latinos swinging back to Dems, and if you still think Texas is impossible to flip, especially in this environment, you gotta adjust your priors.
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At least seven blue states could redistrict by 2028, says Hakeem Jeffries, speaking at the Center for American Progress democracydocket.com/news-alerts/ha…
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The better barometer for November is not primary turnout but rather races like TN 7. The Gop can mobilize their base but it is expensive and it wont save marginal seats but it will limit losses.
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well, with texas senate matchup being pretty much all decided now, id say it starts off as lean D.
talarico+1.5
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@SeanTrende This is why you should take every poll you read with a grain of salt.
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No undecideds six months out? Neat!
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
New - Senate poll - Montana 🟡 Bondar 50% 🔴 Alme 50% 2024 results - Trump +20 Tavern R #C - LV - 5/18
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Cornyn has not been polling much better than Paxton against James Talarico. Essentially 1 point with serious pollsters.
Texas polls are likely underestimating all Republicans badly just like they did in 2024.
Alicia Smith@Alicia_Smith19
So Talarico probably the odds-on favorite to win in TX Sen now: Hated GOP nominee, pro-Dem environment, GOP erosion with Latinos etc MI remains a big question mark for me (El Sayed probably wins primary, which gives Rs a chance) but Dems could be on their way to a Senate flip.
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Politico/Bloomberg: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) calls Trump’s endorsement of Paxton “extremely disappointing” and says it puts the Texas Senate seat in jeopardy.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Breaking news: President Trump endorses Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Republican primary
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@LIEngProf There just isnt much better data Cornyn is a stronger candidate than Paxton. But the electoral zeitgeist just repeats the same ole same ole
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Well, it seems TX AG Ken Paxton has earned the coveted Trump endorsement, so let’s revisit Paxton’s & John Cornyn’s weakest performances to gauge where they might land.
Cornyn’s weakest came in ‘20, winning by 10% while Trump won by 5.5%. Paxton’s was in ‘18, winning by 3.5% while Cruz won reelection by 2.5%. We can conclude that Cornyn does outperform the top of the ticket more than Paxton, but we should also consider environment, opponents and that Paxton has built up more baggage since then.
Should be an interesting runoff…
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Texas Senate race.
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@IAPolls2022 Yes I am sure 5 percent of voters suddenly reverted to undecided.
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2026 Generic Congressional Ballot
🟦 DEM: 39%
🟥 GOP: 38%
Last poll: Democrats +6
——
Trust more to handle (net)
🔵 Healthcare: D+12
🔵 Cost of living: D+4
🔵 Economy: D+1
🔴 Immigration: D+7
🔴 Crime: D+11
5/3-11 | 984 RV
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
NATIONAL POLL By Reuters/Ipsos Approve: 35% (-1) Disapprove: 63% (=) —— Trump's net approval on key issues 🟤 Immigration: -13 🟤 Crime: -14 🟤 Foreign policy: -29 🔴 Corruption: -34 🔴 Economy: -41 🔴 Inflation: -55 (new low) 5/15-18 | 1,571 A ipsos.com/sites/default/…
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@EWErickson I’m a long time Conservative voter in Texas. Definitely not a MAGA Minion! I did vote for Harris over Trump. Trump cares more about himself than Conservatives. If Paxton is the nominee, whoever the Democrat nominee is is getting my vote!
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The reality here is Ken Paxton can win Texas. But the lift to get him across the finish line will take money away from Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and other states. It'll be a pyrrhic victory for the GOP.
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@baseballcrank It is interesting to me polls didnt show Cornyn doing much better than Paxton and the immediate response of the electoral zeitgeist is now, well, its a tossup
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Winning TX-SEN is still a tall order for Talarico, but this is a very big boost to his chances.
Josh Kraushaar@JoshKraushaar
If Paxton prevails (much more likely now), there will be many millions poured in TEXAS to salvage the Senate race for GOP.
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For once, Kalshi probably has it right (I wouldn't buy above, say, 55% though).
Kalshi Politics@KalshiPolitics
BREAKING: James Talarico (D) is now favored to win the Texas Senate election
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@ElectionTime_ Maybe you should mention this a partisan pollster? No. Gee I wonder why.
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🚨SHOCK POLL: Democrat David Jolly is forecasted to win Florida's governorship, succeeding Ron DeSantis.
Florida - 2026 Governor
🟦David Jolly 46% (+4)
🟥Byron Donalds 42%
This is the first time Jolly has led Donalds in Florida governor polling.
Change Research | May 13-16, 2026 | 1,593 LV
Explore pollsmax.com for more polls.
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@ChrisCillizza Or the numbers are.... wait for it.... wrong. Not completely wrong but under estimating his support and gop turnout.
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If Democrats can't win back the House -- and make a real run at the Senate -- with these sorts of numbers for Trump, they are well and truly doomed
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