Giulio Vaccari

@aleciffo @polymarket_data We should start an hedge fund

Was curious whether Polymarket misprices Formula 1 pole sitters right after qualifying. So I backtested a simple strategy on historical data from @polymarket_data. Premise: from 2021-2025 the pole sitter won the race 54.4% of the time. So if Polymarket prices the pole driver below 0.544 in the race-winner market right at the end of qualifying, that's a mispricing and hence buy. Tested it on 13 races from Aug 2025 (when our historical order books database starts) to May 2026: - 4 trades fired, 3 won - +70% ROI on capital deployed - Best one: Antonelli at 0.34 in China 2026. +194% on that trade alone Another interesting finding is that in those 13 races, 11 pole sitters actually won the race (84.6% vs the 54.4% historical baseline). Polymarket seems to be systematically underpricing the front row. Live test for tonight: Russell took pole at the @F1 Canadian GP last night. Polymarket priced him at 0.48 right after Q3, and he's at 0.42 this morning (well below the probability estimated from historical data), so the strategy fires. Let's see how it plays out.

@catalinmpit Hey!

I'll create a list of EU people that work in tech. If you want to be added, reply.

@aleciffo @Dipper_pol Why are they hiding then

@Dipper_pol I think you are a few decades late, HMM hasn't been a secret in a really long time

The secret of Hedge Funds is revealed in a 17 page PDF Stanford released the complete Hidden Markov Model framework that quants at firms like Jane Street & Caissa Capital are known to use & released it for free. Watch the post below before someone takes it down

We went to a robotics hackathon and wanted to do something with cameras. We derailed and made a thing to take selfies with London TFL cameras. No prize but we got some great shots of elephant & castle: londonselfiecam-virid.vercel.app

AI agents are getting incredibly smart. But they still don’t really know you. Having worked on consumer products powered by Open Banking (@meetcleo) and IoT data (Omnia), @MaxAlbarello and I started onfabric.io at @join_ef because we believe something is missing: portable, user-controlled personal context for truly personal AI. Our belief has deepened as we use agents that show real intelligence but have gaping holes in their understanding of us e.g. ChatGPT does not know which restaurant I posted from last Saturday and Claude has no idea which book I just ordered. In real life, your preferences don’t develop in neat little boxes, one box for Google, one for Instagram, and one for ChatGPT. So why does your personal context stay siloed in Google, Instagram, YouTube, ChatGPT and every other app you use? You might use ChatGPT multiple times a day. But you also: - Post your trips on Instagram - Watch interesting videos on YouTube - Use Google to search, discover and navigate the web Right now, each app sees a slice of you. None of them see the whole person. Fabric changes that. With Fabric, you can bring rich personal context from your Instagram stories, Google searches, YouTube watch history and more into AI apps like Claude and ChatGPT. So your AIs stop being clueless agents and start feeling more like friends who actually get you. Context that evolves with you. And moves with you. Not trapped in Big Tech or Big AI. Because you should be able to use many AI products all perfectly tailored to you, instead of being forced into using one or two products that lock you in with your context. Our vision is simple: just like Visa lets you pay anywhere in the physical world with one card, Fabric lets you sign in with your personal context anywhere in the digital world. If this resonates, sign up at onfabric.io. And comment “Fabric” to get early access to our beta. I’ll reach out and personally onboard you.

London has a more builders doing cool stuff than it looks!

heard someone yell ‘kubernetes’ at the beach. thought i was having a stroke but it was just their dog’s name. only in sf.

@S_F1gur3 We have a chat service that works over DNS so you can LLM on a flight without paying " dig @ch.at "what is golang" TXT +short"

@Uber @Uber_Support Booking Eurostar doesn't work both from the app (android) and the website (total is NaN and continue does nothing). Text me if you need a good swe!

@ViewFromTheQ 4.15

The last dance was an epic one. And of course emotional. I’ll cherish our rivalry forever, @rafaelnadal 👑. Tennis will miss you. As-salamu alaykum, Riyadh. #SixKingsSlam is a special tournament. See you soon 🙏🏼

18 years apart: first and last meeting as professional players 🥹🇷🇸🇪🇸

Incredible things are happening on my bag of legumes

how it started how its going

WTF happened in 1971?!