J Lee

3.2K posts

J Lee

J Lee

@JLee64683103

Katılım Mayıs 2022
58 Takip Edilen66 Takipçiler
J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@Write4Republic You obviously are a homeless nomad traveling with camels carrying barrels of hay used to barter for water to bathe your sun cracked skin and filthy hair
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Writing The Republic
Writing The Republic@Write4Republic·
Opposing data centers is exactly like opposing pipelines.
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Patrick Karim
Patrick Karim@badcharts1·
INFLATION rate is breaking out! What does this mean for GOLD?
Patrick Karim tweet media
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@PhotonCap Fuck all the haters. Your 9$ tip is what it is
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
Any comments on tipping culture? I went a Korean style raw fish restaurant in LA, and subtotal was iirc, ~800 USD. 20% of the subtotal was ~160 USD!! It's insane.
Photon Capital tweet media
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Emini tic
Emini tic@TicTocTick·
Fill up gas tanks tonight. Gas will be $6-$7 nationally by end of the week.
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@ozzy_livin Exactly what im looking for! I think we get another grind up on spx nas in june after weakness ends
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Ozzy
Ozzy@ozzy_livin·
🥐 fresh crumbs Summer of George ☀️ more than ever this year If they can keep the market up until June, 👸🦥 flows kick in and we are going to squeeze through the summer Could last until September when summer vol compression stops ... or as long as November into midterm elections Look for a rotation out of tech ✍️ Until it breaks ... "Laissez les bons temps rouler" @jam_croissant with @Buncahn AFTER HOURS 🍶 @Stocktwits Full interview youtube.com/watch?v=L-jrSw…
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Michael | Hypermarkets
Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu·
Tom Lee says the May/June SPY crash will feel like hell, but you just buy the dip for SPY target $770+ Here's exactly what's coming from @fundstrat: 1/ The Timeline New Fed chair confirmation is starting NOW. Kevin Warsh. Senate floor vote could come 50-70 days after committee. That puts a new Fed chair in place by June-July 2026. 2/ History doesn't lie and it's horrifying "10 of 13 Fed chairs had a drawdown of more than 10% in the first year. So I think it's more the rule than the exception that we're going to get a drawdown." says Tom Lee Since 1930, the SPY has logged average drawdowns of 5%, 12%, and 16% over the 1-, 3-, and 6-month periods after a new Fed chief took the helm all larger than the typical peak-to-trough drop in a randomly selected year, per Barclays. This isn't a black swan. It's a pattern. 3/ The Road Map "We originally said that the market could get towards 7,300. And it looks like we're on a path towards that. We're well over 7,000. And then we'll have a decline that will feel like a bear market. Perhaps it's because of the market testing new Fed chair." — Tom Lee The data backing this: The median intra-year drawdown from an all-time high in the SPT since 1980 is 10.4%. Statistically, there's a 50% chance the index drops 10% or more at some point in 2026. Feel like a bear market = -15% to -20% easily on the table. 4/ But Mag 7, crypto, and software are ALREADY bleeding "Keep in mind, a lot of the markets have already had a drawdown in the Mag 7, crypto, and software."— Tom Lee The broad index hasn't felt it yet. Rotation is a warning shot, not a safety net. 5/ Then… the rally of a lifetime "I think a rally follows because fundamentals are strengthening maybe one of the strongest rallies we'll see in our lifetime."— Tom Lee Since 1980, the average intra-year drawdown has been over 14% yet the SPY has still averaged 10.7% annual gains during that same period. Double-digit drops have historically come with double-digit annual gains. The flush is the setup. 6/ His final warning: "Just a reminder just don't time the market, even if you're tempted to." says Tom Lee So this is the full sequence:SPY → 7,300 than New Fed chair → 10-16% drawdown then rally of our lifetime
Michael | Hypermarkets tweet media
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ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ
ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ@DeFiTracer·
🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL MAKE AN IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT AT 3:00 PM ET TRUMP NEVER SPEAKS ON SUNDAYS UNLESS SOMETHING SERIOUS IS HAPPENING INSIDERS EXPECT HIM TO REFUSE IRAN'S FINAL DEAL PROPOSAL AND CONTINUE THE ATTACKS IF THIS HAPPENS, MARKETS WILL COLLAPSE...
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Norseman Market Timing
Norseman Market Timing@Norseman1·
Was a great week! Clan having fun in the Discord. 😂🤣Have a great weekend all!
Norseman Market Timing tweet media
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@Namzes_G Dont we have pos real rates
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Namzes Cycles
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G·
Pretty clear to me that economy, earnings and inflation are accelerating while unemployment going lower. 6% deficit and NGDP mean plenty of money in the private sector to withstand oil spike -The idea that Fed will cut into hot economy and inflation and inflation expectations rising in the middle of supply shock is bizarre -I think cutting cycle is likely over - rate hikes are ahead with 2Y now above FFR; market signaling fed policy is too lose -Fed about to lose long end of bond market with 10 and 30Y rates. -Warsh will be tested as policy appears to be too lose, Fed running QE into hot economy, markets, inflation while financial conditions are extremely lose -Inflation is a policy choice and remains most unpopular one and the reason why democrats lost in 2024 and why Trump/GOP will lose next few years.
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G

#GDP 2026 Cycles Fed database doesn't have enough data, so best we can do is identify what fits the current data set -5.5Y cycle is common across many macro data sets and if it is in play then growth should have a low around now and expand into 2027 or even 2028 - It's not as clean and given data limitations take it with a grain of salt. But given the expansion in the money supply till late 2025, I think it's reasonable to expect both inflation and growth surprise to the upside next 2 years. P.S. Projection is from July 2023

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Namzes Cycles
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G·
#Wheat breaking out on weekly. 2022 overlay is in yellow. Cycles are up, fundamentals supportive. No fertilizers -> lower crop yields -> higher agris prices $ZW_F $WEAT
Namzes Cycles tweet media
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G

#Wheat $ZW_F $WEAT 2026 projection: 1) -I Extended the projection from Jan 2025. Main idea is that a major low formed in Oct 2025 (at least 18M cycle low). A new up wave (blue) is expected to last into 2027 -Red is a detailed projection. A minor low was due in Mar, unclear if we just saw it or is still ahead -Fertilizer prices are exploding and war usually result in inflation and food prices going higher/agris are typically bid (cont...)

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Perry Bartol
Perry Bartol@PerryBartol·
Big picture look at the Federal debt load relative to GDP. Three conclusions: 1-don’t listen to the doom and gloomers predicting imminent default. 2-the policy decisions in 2020 were terrible from many perspectives. 3-Fed will cut, Treasury will issue short
Perry Bartol tweet media
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Marhelm
Marhelm@MarhelmData·
Fermium Research chemicals specialist: "Hormuz closure will create windfall profits for US chemical producers...it's a momentous shift for the North American chemicals industry"
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@options_insight 6 weeks no way for qqq long oct and ill see if i regret it
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
The moves this year: Gold: parabolic Silver: parabolic Oil: parabolic Uranium: parabolic NASDAQ recovery: parabolic Themes that used to take 12 months to play out are playing out in 6 weeks or less. AI has compressed the window capital needs to pile into a theme. Everyone's model points at the same trade at the same time. If you're still buying 6-month options for a 6-week thesis, you're missing out on leverage to your view. What is the next trade AI is telling everyone to do?
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@HostileCharts Pretty bullish. Weak index today and it held up
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Larry Thompson, CMT CPA
Larry Thompson, CMT CPA@HostileCharts·
$IGV - Zoomed out view..... I don't see a need to have an overly strong opinion based on this chart.
Larry Thompson, CMT CPA tweet media
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Luo Ji
Luo Ji@luojix1·
@miscomputate Do you think the lockup expiry in August will be a problem as it coincides with a low-volume month?
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Mason
Mason@miscomputate·
$INFQ Lunchtime report: Buyers now absent, no aggressive selling. And when buyers disappear, you get leakage. what this looks like right now. Most notable though - daily volume remains very large and is still hanging with $IONQ / $RGTI So even with the drift, attention has not left the stock. Now we see whether buyers come back in the last hour 🤔 Won’t hold my breath tho.
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@OddDiligence Took some time at open. Going down now
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Norseman Market Timing
Norseman Market Timing@Norseman1·
Believe it or not you are probably not bullish enough here… And I don’t wanna hear about your micro dip in a day or two.
GIF
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J Lee
J Lee@JLee64683103·
@skumWgmi Dum ass post. Take this shit down
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skum
skum@skumWgmi·
BOOMER DAD: Max out your 401k. ME: I don't have an employer match. BOOMER DAD: Doesn't matter. Tax advantages. ME: My HYSA is paying 4.6% liquid. BOOMER DAD: 401k is always the answer. ME: 401k has a 0.8% expense ratio. BOOMER DAD: That's basically nothing. ME: On $200k over 30 years that's $87,000. BOOMER DAD: You're overthinking it. He called fees "basically nothing" his entire career. The fund manager called them "revenue." Same number. Different seat at the table.
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